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MoneyShow.com http://www.moneyshow.com MoneyShow.com Copyright 2025 MoneyShow.com Inc. All Rights Reserved. editor@moneyshow.com 50 en-us MoneyShow.com http://www.moneyshow.com http://www.moneyshow.com/ Market Minute 11-10-25- Shutdown Vote Hopes Propel Stocks Higher 11/10/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks rebounded late in the day Friday, and they’re following through with more gains so far today. Gold and silver are also surging along with cryptocurrencies, while crude oil is up more modestly. The dollar and Treasuries are flattish. It looks like the federal government shutdown may FINALLY end...soon. A handful of Democrats broke ranks and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/shutdown-nears-end-as-centrist-democrats-agree-to-stopgap-deal?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approved a deal</a> with Republicans that would fund some government agencies through Jan. 30 and give federal workers back pay, among other things. That said, the 60-40 Senate vote is only a procedural one. Additional votes in the Senate and House are required, and President Trump will have to sign the final piece of legislation. It will take at least a few days for all that to come together – and individual legislators can try to torpedo or delay things along the way. CoreWeave Inc. (CRWV) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64588.png" alt="chart" width="486" height="174" /> In other news, can Artificial Intelligence (AI) juggernaut CoreWeave Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=crwv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CRWV</a>) get its sector back on the right track? The “neocloud” company builds and operates data centers that hyperscalers like Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) rent computing power from. It reports earnings after the bell and investors will be <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coreweave-faces-earnings-pressure-cracks-105700926.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">closely watching</a> revenue and contract backlog growth. While CRWV had a successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) back in March, its shares got hammered last week as investors raised questions about the sustainability of AI growth and capex spending. Finally, assets like gold and Bitcoin that had a rough go of late are powering higher to start the week. Bitcoin topped $106,000 in early trading – after dipping below $100K last week – while gold jumped more than $100 an ounce. It remains to be seen if these “alternative stores of value” can regain the momentum they had weeks ago. But including the recent rally, Bitcoin is up 13.5% year-to-date while gold is up 55.5%. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64589/market-minute-11-10-25-shutdown-vote-hopes-propel-stocks-higher/?scode=046929 Market Minute 11-7-25- Flights Grounded Amid Record Shutdown 11/7/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks got shellacked yesterday, and they’re starting Friday off on a sour note, too. Crude oil, gold, and silver are up a bit, while Treasuries and the dollar are flattish. Bitcoin breached $100K to the downside again in early trading. Talks continue on <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-senate-talks-flights/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ways to end</a> the record-long government shutdown, now in its 38th day. In the meantime, check your email if you have travel plans! The shutdown is prompting <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/airlines/flight-cancellation-plans-prompt-scramble-across-travel-industry-55ad3e65?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">schedule reductions at 40 major US airports</a>, with 4% of US flights getting cancelled today. That number will rise to 10% by Nov. 14, per the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Officials say the move is necessary to ensure airline safety, given increasing absenteeism and scheduling conflicts among air traffic controllers who are working without pay. As for the impact on sector investors, airline stocks are mixed in the last month – with Southwest Airlines Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=luv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LUV</a>) down 3.2%, but American Airlines Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAL</a>) up 11.1%. Shares of Delta Air Lines Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dal" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DAL</a>) and United Airlines Holdings Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ual" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UAL</a>) are essentially unchanged. LUV, AAL, DAL, UAL (1-Mo. % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64582.png" alt="chart" width="556" height="309" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, things haven’t gone so well for cryptocurrency investors lately. The market cap of all cryptos tracked by CoinGecko hit $4.4 trillion on Oct. 6. It <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-bear-market-wipes-almost-100229856.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has since plunged 20%</a>, leaving the asset class up just a couple of percentage points year-to-date. Bitcoin alone is having its worst week since March. The move comes amid a broader selloff in some of the year’s biggest winners, including AI stocks. Lastly, the debate and the vote is over. Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) CEO Elon Musk WILL receive <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-06/tesla-shareholders-approve-1-trillion-pay-package-for-elon-musk?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the first $1 trillion compensation package</a> offered by an American corporation. The Board of Directors strongly supported the award, though some large investors and institutional proxy advisors recommended shareholders vote against it. Still, Musk will need to hit ambitious growth targets for the market value of TSLA, plus operational milestones for the company's underlying business, over a span of years to earn the full payout. That makes the number more of a theoretical, cumulative, future payout than “money in the bank” today. Musk is worth approximately $460 billion currently, per Bloomberg. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64582/market-minute-11-7-25-flights-grounded-amid-record-shutdown/?scode=046929 Market Minute 11-5-25- Red Hot Investments Turn Ice Cold 11/5/2025 2:15:00 PM It’s been a rough couple of days for many stocks, though equities are mixed this morning. Gold and silver are modestly higher, while Treasuries and the dollar are flat. Crude oil is down a bit. Several of this year’s hottest investments – from gold to cryptocurrencies to semiconductor and Artificial Intelligence (AI) stocks – have been pulling back recently. Bitcoin knifed through $100,000 late yesterday before regaining that key level this morning, while markets like South Korea’s that are heavily levered to technology dropped 2% overnight. The Invesco QQQ Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=qqq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">QQQ</a>) has shed 2.6% in the last five days, while the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aiq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AIQ</a>) has slid 3.5% Bitcoin, AMD, MCD (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64572.png" alt="chart" width="560" height="312" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> All told, one Bloomberg index of global chip stocks <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/asian-stocks-look-sluggish-after-wall-street-slump-markets-wrap?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shed $500 billion in market capitalization</a> in just 24 hours. Third-quarter earnings from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMD</a>) late yesterday didn’t help sentiment. While the chipmaker topped estimates in Q3 and <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amd-beats-q3-estimates-on-top-and-bottom-line-offers-strong-q4-guidance-202400302.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast better-than-expected Q4 revenue</a>, investors sold the news. That continued a pattern evident for other tech sector highflyers. It wasn’t all bad on the earnings front, though. Widely held McDonald’s Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mcd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MCD</a>) delivered a decent quarter, with same store sales up 2.5% in the US and 3.6% globally. Adjusted earnings per share of $3.22 matched analyst estimates. Optimism about the return of products like the Snack Wrap and the Monopoly game also buoyed the shares. Finally, the government shutdown officially became the longest ever today. Some <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/lawmakers-see-hope-for-ending-shutdown-as-record-nears-863df59d?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">optimism has emerged</a> about a deal to end the 36-day-and-counting shutdown, but nothing is confirmed yet. Economists estimate the lockdown is costing the economy <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-11-05/record-government-shutdown-costs-us-economy-about-15-billion-each-week?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">around $15 billion per week</a> – though the eventual doling out of back pay and the resultant spending boost could lessen the blow. For its part, the Congressional Budget Office suggested Q4 GDP could come in two percentage points lower, depending on the shutdown’s ultimate length. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64572/market-minute-11-5-25-red-hot-investments-turn-ice-cold/?scode=046929 Market Minute 11-4-25- Stocks Slide on Palantir, AI Fears 11/4/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are sliding as fresh bubble fears seep into markets. Gold, silver, and crude oil are all down, too, while Treasuries and the dollar are up a tad. Palantir Technologies Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pltr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PLTR</a>) has been one of the hottest stocks in the hottest sectors – Artificial Intelligence (AI). The AI software and services company just reported stellar third-quarter results. Q4 sales guidance of $1.3 billion also topped Wall Street estimates, as did its operating profit projections. Yet the stock slid in early post-earnings trading, with analysts suggesting the results weren’t strong enough for a stock with an <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-stock-falls-amid-valuation-concerns-despite-q4-outlook-beating-wall-street-estimates-182343664.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">incredibly rich</a> price-to-earnings ratio of 230! PLTR, NVDA (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64566.png" alt="chart" width="536" height="298" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Speaking of valuations, the “Cyclically Adjusted Price-to-Earnings” ratio from economist Robert Shiller may be flashing a warning. This Nobel Prize-winning economist’s “CAPE” ratio includes built-in business cycle-related adjustments, leading some to prefer it to standard measures. The valuation gauge recently hit 40.5. It has only touched these lofty levels once in data that goes back to 1881 – the tail end of the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/this-famous-method-of-valuing-stocks-is-pointing-toward-some-rough-years-ahead-4eb6a498?mod=hp_lead_pos4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Dot-Com bubble</a>. In fairness, though, it has been rising for years...and that hasn’t derailed the post-2022 bull run. Michael Burry of Scion Asset Management fame is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-04/burry-discloses-puts-on-nvidia-and-palantir-after-bubble-warning?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly targeting AI stocks</a>, though. The hedge fund manager is stacking put options on names like Palantir and Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=NVDA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) – and posting bubble warnings on social media. Burry rose to fame thanks to his wildly profitable bets against various housing and mortgage-related instruments during the Great Financial Crisis (as portrayed in the movie The Big Short). But his more-recent bearish calls haven’t panned out. Finally, the company behind late-night and early-morning meals with catchy names like “Moons Over My Hammy” is going private. The 72-year-old diner chain Denny’s Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=denn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DENN</a>) will <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/denny-being-taken-private-115738748.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sell itself to private equity firm</a> TriArtisan Capital Advisors, owner of the P.F. Chang’s chain. The $322 million deal will remove DENN shares from the public markets for the first time in almost six decades. Denny’s has struggled in recent years, but still has approximately 1,600 restaurants. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64566/market-minute-11-4-25-stocks-slide-on-palantir-ai-fears/?scode=046929 Market Minute 11-3-25- Kimberly-Kenvue Ink $40 BLN Deal 11/3/2025 2:20:00 PM Stocks are mixed in the early going after last week’s solid finish. Gold and silver are rising modestly, while the dollar, Treasuries, and crude oil are mostly flat. Consumer products giant Kimberly-Clark Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=kmb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KMB</a>) is taking advantage of the Tylenol-driven slide in Kenvue Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=kvue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KVUE</a>), announcing plans to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/kimberly-clark-to-buy-tylenol-owner-kenvue-in-40-billion-deal?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy the firm</a> for $40 billion in cash and stock. The offer price of $21.01 is a 46% premium to where KVUE closed on Friday. KVUE shares have been sliding for months amid comments from President Trump’s administration linking Tylenol usage to autism. But KMB said the deal would allow it to compete more effectively in high-growth consumer product categories. In addition to Tylenol, Kenvue makes products like Neutrogena lotions, Band-Aids, and Listerine mouthwash. Kimberly-Clark’s portfolio includes Huggies diapers, Scott toilet paper, and Kleenex tissues. KMB, KVUE (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/dailyguru64563.png" alt="chart" width="535" height="298" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, the government shutdown is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/democrats-urge-trump-to-engage-in-talks-as-shutdown-closes-in-on-record-6d31a6ab?mod=hp_lead_pos4" target="_parent">entering another week</a> – and closing in on the longest ever. The previous record of 35 days came in late 2018 and early 2019. Flight delays, closed national parks, missed paychecks, and lapsed aid programs are some of the existing or feared consequences. Markets have managed to power ahead anyway, though economists and investors are watching for signs of spreading economic weakness. Private <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-03/the-low-hire-low-fire-us-economy-seems-to-be-over?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">labor market data is softening</a>, even as “official” numbers aren’t being reported due to the shutdown. Finally, dealmaking in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) space shows no sign of letting up. Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/microsoft-signs-9-7-billion-110844856.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signed a $9.7 billion, five-year deal</a> with IREN Ltd. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=iren" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IREN</a>) to give it access to computing power and Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) chips at the firm’s data centers. IREN operates facilities in British Columbia and Texas with total capacity of 2,910 megawatts. Its shares have soared more than six-fold this year thanks to the AI boom. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64563/market-minute-11-3-25-kimberly-kenvue-ink-$40-bln-deal/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-31-25- Big Tech Brings Both Tricks AND Treats 10/31/2025 2:30:00 PM Happy Halloween! Stocks are trying to bounce back after a rough session on Thursday. Gold and crude oil are up a bit, while Treasuries and the dollar are essentially flat. Will the bearish vibes from Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) and Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) be offset by BULLISH vibes from Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) and Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>)? That’s what could be shaping up here. META and MSFT knocked markets for a loop yesterday by forecasting astronomical spending on Artificial Intelligence (AI) initiatives. META, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64557.png" alt="chart" width="554" height="363" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> META said CAPEX spending could hit $70 billion to $72 billion this year, raising the lower end of a previous forecast by $4 billion. It also said spending would be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/meta-projects-increasing-expenses-takes-one-time-tax-charge" target="_blank" rel="noopener">notably larger</a>” in 2026 amid its massive build out of data centers and computing equipment to fill them. For its part, <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/microsofts-cloud-surge-lifts-revenue-above-expectations-2025-10-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT spent a record $35 billion</a> on CAPEX in the fiscal first quarter alone. It also said spending would rise for the full year, changing a previous forecast that it would moderate. But then came earnings news from Apple and Amazon. The former said <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-beats-on-q4-expectations-stock-rises-on-strong-outlook-despite-poor-china-sales-203020199.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">iPhone 17 uptake was strong</a> and forecast Q4 EPS and sales that surpassed Wall Street expectations. As for Amazon, its stock soared to a record high after the company beat adjusted EPS forecasts by 24% – and revenue at its critical AWS <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/amazon-stock-price-earnings-bb2ec573?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cloud-computing division</a> topped estimates. Elsewhere on the earnings front, “Big Oil” companies Exxon Mobil Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=xom" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XOM</a>) and Chevron Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cvx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CVX</a>) both topped forecasts thanks to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-31/exxon-beats-estimates-as-new-guyana-field-helps-lift-production?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">acquisitions and production increases</a>. But their shares were mixed in response because investors remain concerned about a global supply glut in the petroleum market. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=xle" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XLE</a>) is up 4.6% year-to-date, trailing the 17% rise in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>). https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64557/market-minute-10-31-25-big-tech-brings-both-tricks-and-treats/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-29-25- Tech Towers Over Markets as NVDA Tops $5 TLN 10/29/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are modestly higher after a rally Tuesday that lacked breadth. Gold and silver are bouncing after a big multi-day selloff, while crude oil, Treasuries, and the dollar are mostly flat ahead of a key policy meeting in Washington. Yes, the stock market rallied yesterday...but it was one of the narrowest advances in ages. While the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) rallied 0.2%, the net advance/decline reading was NEGATIVE 294. Bespoke Investment Group notes that was the worst such divergence since at least 1990. In other words, we’re back to a market dominated by “Big Tech.” NVDA, MSFT, AAPL (Market Cap YTD Chart) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64547.png" alt="chart" width="589" height="328" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Consider Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>). It’s topping the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-29/nvidia-set-to-become-first-5-trillion-firm-as-ai-rally-extends?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">“$5 TRILLION in market cap</a>” milestone in today’s session, the first company to do so EVER. A flurry of Artificial Intelligence (AI) deals and rampant investor enthusiasm for big tech names has driven NVDA’s valuation surge. The milestone comes just four months after Nvidia topped the $4 trillion mark. Nvidia is also spreading the wealth around, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-28/nvidia-to-invest-1-billion-in-nokia-in-ai-networking-push?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announcing a deal yesterday</a> to take a $1 billion stake in Nokia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nok" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOK</a>). In exchange, the Finnish communications company will buy NVDA chips and computers to build out its wireless networks and accelerate the growth of its data center business. NOK shares soared 21% on the news, the biggest one-day surge in 12 years. It's worth noting that NVDA isn’t the only tech darling with a mind-boggling market cap. Both Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) and Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) aren’t too far behind, with valuations of roughly $4 trillion. Waiting in the wings is OpenAI, the dealmaking darling that <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openais-promise-to-stay-in-california-helped-clear-the-path-for-its-ipo-3af1c31c?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly plans to go public in 2027</a>. If AI demand and AI spending continues to boom, the company could sport an eye-popping valuation down the road. In other news, the Federal Reserve will conclude its latest policy meeting today. Policymakers are virtually <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/fed-in-fog-it-heads-toward-another-rate-cut-2025-10-29/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">guaranteed to cut interest rates</a> by another 25 basis points, leaving the federal funds rate range at 3.75%-4%. But they are operating without key economic data due to the federal government shutdown. That clouds the outlook for more cuts – and investors will be watching Chair Jay Powell to see if he drops any hints about what’s next in his post-meeting press conference. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64547/market-minute-10-29-25-tech-towers-over-markets-as-nvda-tops-$5-tln/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-28-25- Amazon, UPS Job Cuts Take Center Stage 10/28/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are rallying further after a strong start to the week on Monday. Gold and silver continue to pull back, and today, they’re being joined by crude oil. The dollar and Treasuries are flat. Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>) is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-28/amzn-amazon-to-cut-14-000-jobs-across-corporate-workforce?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">planning big layoffs</a> – at least 14,000 jobs across a range of white-collar divisions like logistics and payments. Though somewhat lower than the 30,000-job tally reported in various places yesterday, that would represent the biggest paring of workers in a few years. Amazon officials said they have to further trim a workforce that grew bloated in the post-Covid era, while also saying Artificial Intelligence (AI) tools will help the company accomplish more with less staff. AMZN, UPS, SWKS, QRVO (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64541.png" alt="chart" width="543" height="373" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, United Parcel Service Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ups" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UPS</a>) <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-28/ups-earnings-beat-estimates-as-ceo-s-turnaround-plan-takes-hold?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">delivered an earnings home run</a> in the third quarter – aided in part by 34,000 job cuts. The global shipping giant has shut various operations and trimmed its workforce of package handlers and drivers, moves that helped it deliver $1.74 per share in adjusted earnings. Wall Street analysts expected $1.32. The stock jumped 12% in early trading, its biggest gain since February 2022. On the M&A front, chipmakers Skyworks Solutions Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=swks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SWKS</a>) and Qorvo Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=qrvo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">QRVO</a>) are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-supplier-skyworks-held-talks-063506062.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">joining forces in a $22 billion deal</a>. The companies make analog and mixed-signal chips for the wireless phone and automotive sectors, among others. Skyworks’ shareholders will own 63% of the combined company, while Qorvo holders will own the remainder. Shares of both tech names jumped on the news. Finally, President Trump’s Asian tour continued yesterday and today with a visit to Japan. Trump heaped praise on Japan's new prime minister Sanae Takaichi, while officials <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/trump-hails-golden-era-in-japan-relations-63888687?mod=hp_lead_pos5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">outlined ways</a> Japan would fulfill its pledge to invest up to $550 billion in the US. Next up for Trump is a meeting with the leader of South Korea, followed by the main event – a sit-down with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64541/market-minute-10-28-25-amazon-ups-job-cuts-take-center-stage/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-24-25- Markets Rejoice on Tamer CPI 10/24/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are rejoicing thanks to tamer inflation figures, with equities and Treasuries solidly higher and crude oil modestly so. Gold and silver are down a bit along with the dollar. Markets FINALLY got Consumer Price Index data for September – and it was better than expected. The headline CPI rose 0.3%, while the core rate that excludes food and energy climbed 0.2%. Both readings were one-tenth of a percentage point lower than what economists estimated. The government shutdown – now the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/september-cpi-preview-inflation-seen-holding-firm-near-3-as-tariffs-complicate-feds-path-192107867.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">second-longest on record</a> – had delayed the report’s release. Core CPI (MOM % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64532.png" alt="chart" width="525" height="210" /> Source: Trading Economics The cooler inflation data all but locks in a quarter-point cut at next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. But analysts remain divided on what the Fed will do about Quantitative Tightening, or QT. The Fed has been shrinking its $6.6 trillion portfolio of securities for more than three years now, a process markets largely ignored. But money markets have started to get skittish over the last several weeks, and some short-term interest <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-24/fed-s-portfolio-unwind-gains-urgency-as-markets-flash-warnings?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rates have actually ticked higher</a>. That could force the Fed to stop draining liquidity at next week’s meeting – or at its December gathering at the latest. Meanwhile, President Trump <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/trump-aims-clinch-deal-with-chinas-xi-during-asia-trip-2025-10-24/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will be meeting</a> with Chinese leader Xi Jinping soon. The White House announced that the two leaders would sit down next Thursday while Trump is traveling in Asia. He will also meet with heads of state from Malaysia, Japan, and South Korea. The US and China have been fighting over tariff rates, access to high-tech gear, the ownership of TikTok’s US operations, and fentanyl trafficking, among other things. Separately, the president announced last night that he was <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-says-he-is-terminating-trade-negotiations-with-canada-baa4c83b?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cutting off trade talks</a> with Canada because the Ontario government ran television ads criticizing his tariffs. The ads used audio from a 1987 radio address delivered by former president Ronald Reagan. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64532/market-minute-10-24-25-markets-rejoice-on-tamer-cpi/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-22-25- Metals Plunge While Media Talks Heat Up 10/22/2025 2:30:00 PM Gold and silver gave back more ground in the early going after an intense selloff yesterday. Equities and Treasuries are mostly flat, while crude oil and the dollar are rising modestly. What started as a pullback Tuesday turned into a rout in the precious metals market, with gold sliding more than 6% (and another 3% this morning). That put the metal on track for its <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/gold-xauusd-and-silver-stabilize-after-massive-drops-as-rally-cools?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">worst selloff in 12 years</a>. Silver tanked more than 8% in a single spot market session, its biggest one-day selloff since 2021. There were no obvious catalysts for the reversal, but metals had gotten wildly extended after the strongest annual rally since 1979. Wild enthusiasm about the “debasement trade” had <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/gold-and-silver-post-steepest-drops-in-years-amid-market-selloff?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">led to extreme positioning</a>, too. Options trading volume on the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) just hit its highest ever, while inflows into gold ETFs topped $8 billion last week, the most since at least 2018. GLD, WBD, PSKY, NFLX (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64523.png" alt="chart" width="556" height="310" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> What’ll happen next with Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=wbd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WBD</a>)? Media industry observers want to know! Paramount Skydance Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=psky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PSKY</a>) is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/david-zaslavs-future-hangs-in-balance-as-warner-goes-up-for-sale-c9b38cff?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly pursuing</a> the movie, streaming, and cable network company, while the firm’s CEO David Zaslav would prefer to split the company in two on his own. Comcast Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=CMCSA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CMCSA</a>) is also reportedly in the hunt. WBD’s streaming business has 126 million subscribers, while its movie and television studios are well-respected. That accounts for the solid interest from other entertainment companies. Speaking of which, Netflix Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nflx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFLX</a>) shares are plunging after <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/netflix-stock-falls-after-earnings-miss-estimates-operating-profit-takes-a-hit-201113517.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the firm whiffed</a> on revenue and profit forecasts in the third quarter. A tax dispute in Brazil of all places hurt results, and some investors remain concerned about engagement and valuation. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64523/market-minute-10-22-25-metals-plunge-while-media-talks-heat-up/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-21-25- GM Pops, While Coinbase Seals Another Deal 10/21/2025 2:30:00 PM After ripping yesterday, stocks are muted this morning while gold and silver are giving up ground. Crude oil is modestly higher along with the dollar, while Treasuries are flat.   From escalating tariff costs to slumping Electric Vehicle (EV) subsidies, General Motors Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GM</a>) has a lot on its plate – and it showed in the firm’s latest earnings report. Net income plunged to $1.3 billion, or $1.35 per share, from $3.1 billion, or $2.68 per share, in the year-ago period. But the stock actually traded higher initially as revenue and adjusted EPS topped forecasts. GM also lowered its <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gm-boosts-full-outlook-foresees-111934512.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">forecast for full-year tariff costs</a>, in part because President Trump just extended a relief program on Friday.  GM, COIN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64517.png" alt="chart" width="561" height="312" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Coinbase Global Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=coin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COIN</a>) continued its acquisition spree in the cryptocurrency space, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-signs-375-million-deal-113014849.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buying Echo for $375 million</a> in cash and stock. Echo runs the Sonar platform, which allows investors to buy into private and public tokens. Coinbase and other firms are looking to boost investor access to tokenized securities and assets, and this deal could advance those efforts. Are “short squeezes” helping propel this market higher? Possibly. A Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GS</a>) index of the most heavily shorted stocks has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-21/goldman-basket-shows-painful-month-for-shorts-caught-in-squeeze?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">soared 16% so far in October</a> – putting it on pace for the best October EVER. Short-sellers borrow shares, then sell them to profit from declines. But when stocks rally instead, they have to buy back those shares to cover their positions – causing “squeezes” that can ironically lead to even-stronger stock market gains. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64517/market-minute-10-21-25-gm-pops-while-coinbase-seals-another-deal/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-20-25- Shutdown Now Third-Longest Ever 10/20/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks, gold, silver, and Bitcoin are all rallying in early trading. Crude oil is easing back, while Treasuries and the dollar are flattish. The federal government shutdown has spilled over into another week, making this the third-longest episode on record behind those in 1995 and 2018-2019. A full pay cycle for federal employees will be missed if the shutdown persists through Friday, which is entirely possible given the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/government-shutdown-live-economic-deadlines-loom-in-days-ahead-as-us-stoppage-now-the-third-longest-in-history-100414802.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lack of negotiating progress</a> in Washington. Various parts of the government, from <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-2025-latest-senate-day-17/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the Supreme Court to the Army Corps of Engineers</a>, are either already shut or winding down some operations and furloughing employees. But on Wall Street, business continues as usual. Roughly one-fifth of the companies in the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) are reporting quarterly results this week, including widely held names like Netflix Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nflx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFLX</a>) and Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>). NFLX, TSLA, IAK (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64513.png" alt="chart" width="539" height="300" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Floridians in “Hurricane Alley” aren’t the only ones facing massive increases in insurance costs these days. From sea to shining sea, the <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/runaway-insurance-costs-bring-back-talk-of-price-caps-fe4df279?mod=hp_lead_pos5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cost of protecting homes and autos</a> is rising fast – with increases of 50% for homes and 42% for vehicles in the last five years, according to the Wall Street Journal. That’s leading more states to reject rate hike requests or consider effective price controls, which critics say drives insurers out of those markets. For its part, the iShares US Insurance ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=iak" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IAK</a>) hasn’t done much this year. It was up just 1.8% on the year through Friday, lagging the 9.1% rise in the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=xlf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XLF</a>). Finally, Bloomberg <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-18/sold-out-in-india-panic-in-london-how-the-silver-market-broke?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">published a fascinating story</a> about how skyrocketing silver demand amid surging prices recently resulted in metals shortages from London to New Delhi. Premiums above benchmark spot prices soared and liquidity dried up as Indian buyers and global ETFs snapped up the metal, leading to chaos in key trading hubs. Here in the US, futures prices have eased back from a recent high of $53.76, but remain above $50. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64513/market-minute-10-20-25-shutdown-now-third-longest-ever/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-15-25- AI, Finance Giants Unite on $40 BLN Buy 10/15/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are rallying back after a mixed day yesterday. Gold and silver are surging again, while the dollar and Treasuries are flattish. Crude oil is up a bit, though still trading below $60 a barrel in the US this morning. We have another MASSIVE deal in the Artificial Intelligence (AI) world to talk about. BlackRock Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=blk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BLK</a>), Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>), and Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackrock-nvidia-buy-aligned-data-113817104.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">teamed up to buy</a> Aligned Data Centers for $40 billion. The firms call their deal consortium the “Artificial Intelligence Infrastructure Partnership” – and it also draws funding from the sovereign wealth funds of Singapore and Kuwait. Dallas-based Aligned has a portfolio of 50 campuses and five gigawatts of capacity online or in development. BLK, NVDA, MSFT (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64509.png" alt="chart" width="576" height="320" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, Wall Street made it rain in the third quarter – and Morgan Stanley (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ms" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MS</a>) got a big share of the profits! Stock-trading revenue at the firm <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/morgan-stanley-stock-traders-trounce-goldman-in-record-quarter?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surged 35% in Q3</a>, while investment banking fees jumped 44%. Bank of America Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bac" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BAC</a>) also reported solid investment banking and investment advisory fee revenue, plus a better-than-expected <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-15/bofa-bankers-top-estimates-as-dealmaking-return-boosts-profit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rise in net interest income</a>. Shares of both firms rose in early trading. Lastly, why is China pushing through new trade restrictions? According to the Wall Street Journal, because China’s leader Xi Jinping <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-trade-war-trump-talks-25c50136?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">thinks he can outmaneuver</a> President Trump. Specifically, Xi believes that Trump will back down from punitive policies if the stock market swoons like it did earlier this year. That calculus is leading to tit-for-tat moves by China and the US, fueling market volatility. Now, markets are focusing on an upcoming gathering of Asia-Pacific leaders later this month – and whether Trump and Xi will meet there to advance deal negotiations. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64509/market-minute-10-15-25-ai-finance-giants-unite-on-$40-bln-buy/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-14-25- Trade Woes Resurface as Q3 Earnings Flood In 10/14/2025 1:15:00 PM Trade headlines are causing more headaches on Wall Street, with stocks giving back ground after a surge on Monday. Gold and silver are flattish after a big recent rally, while crude oil is trading lower. Treasuries and the dollar are stable. Tit-for-tat trade and tariff moves in China and the US are keeping investors on edge. President Trump tried to lower the temperature over the weekend, prompting markets to rally yesterday. But then China said overnight that it <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/china-adds-hanwha-oceans-units-to-sanctions-list-d99b1757" target="_blank" rel="noopener">would sanction units</a> of South Korean shipping giant Hanwha Ocean. The move is noteworthy because Hanwha had been cultivating ties with the US...and it could lead to some kind of US retaliation. JPM, GS, GM (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64503.png" alt="chart" width="542" height="302" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> We may not be getting much economic data with the government still shut down. But we ARE getting a ton of earnings news from Corporate America. JP Morgan Chase & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=jpm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JPM</a>) <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-14/jpmorgan-traders-bankers-crush-estimates-for-third-quarter-haul?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trounced estimates</a> thanks to a surge in investment banking and trading fees, even as the bank set aside more money to cover credit-related costs. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GS</a>) also reported <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-14/goldman-dealmakers-drive-bank-to-record-third-quarter-revenues?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">record third-quarter revenue</a> thanks to strong performance in its investment banking and asset and wealth management divisions. On the flip side, General Motors Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GM</a>) is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/gm-faces-1-6-billion-charge-on-ev-pullback-bb7e4c2e?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">booking a $1.6 billion charge</a> because of slumping demand for Electric Vehicles (EVs). The federal government is backing off subsidizing and encouraging EV sales and manufacturing, leading to an industrywide slump. GM has already said it will pay up to $5 billion in tariff-related costs over the course of 2025. Meanwhile, the “<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/great-debasement-debate-rippling-across-233000819.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Great Debasement Trade</a>” shows no sign of letting up. Gold surged to almost $4,200 an ounce in the last 24 hours, while silver traded to its highest nominal price in history. Behind the move is a global recognition that government bonds (including US Treasuries) simply aren’t true “safe havens” anymore. Exploding deficits, deteriorating fiscal health, demographics, and other forces are leading private investors and central bank to move more money into gold versus bonds. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64503/market-minute-10-14-25-trade-woes-resurface-as-q3-earnings-flood-in/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-13-25- Trump Backtracks, Stocks and Metals Surge 10/13/2025 2:15:00 PM After tumbling to close out last week, equities are regaining some ground this morning. Gold and silver are surging again, while crude oil is up a bit, too. The bond market is closed for the holiday. President Trump and Vice President Vance <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/trump-says-dont-worry-about-china-after-beijing-responds-100-tariff-threat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">walked back threats against China</a> over the weekend, helping goose markets after Friday’s meltdown. Trump commented on social media that “The USA wants to help China, not hurt it” and Vance said on Fox News that Trump would be a “reasonable negotiator.” Worries about fresh 100% tariffs on China caused stocks to careen lower at the end of last week, with the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=SPX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) losing 2.7% and the Nasdaq shedding 3.5%. JPM, SLV, BAM, BE (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64500.png" alt="chart" width="551" height="307" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, precious metals continue to rampage higher in both the spot and futures markets. Spot silver in London jumped more than 3% while lease rates (the cost of borrowing metal) soared as liquidity tightened up and worries about <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-12/silver-extends-gains-on-short-squeeze-as-gold-rallies-to-record?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sourcing physical supply grew</a>. Palladium and platinum prices jumped as well, with year-to-date gains now topping 64% in the former and 84% in the latter. The iShares Silver Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=slv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SLV</a>), for its part, is up 72% YTD. Elsewhere in the materials markets, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=jpm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JPM</a>) said it would invest $10 billion of its own capital in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/jpmorgan-to-invest-10-billion-in-u-s-companies-critical-to-national-security-4167e52b?mod=hp_lead_pos5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">companies that supply rare earths</a> and other critical goods. CEO Jamie Dimon said the US was “too reliant on unreliable sources of critical minerals, products, and manufacturing,” and that its money could help turn the tide. The administration has also been steering federal funds into sector firms, including MP Materials Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MP</a>). Lastly, Brookfield Asset Management (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bam" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BAM</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brookfield-bloom-energy-launch-5-114139954.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is teaming up</a> with Bloom Energy Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=be" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BE</a>) on a deal to help power the Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution. Specifically, BAM will invest up to $5 billion in BE’s fuel cell technology, which could help power the data centers going up in Europe and the US. Already up 291% in 2025, BE shares rose another 29% on the news. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64500/market-minute-10-13-25-trump-backtracks-stocks-and-metals-surge/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-10-25- Retail Piles into Stocks as China Restricts Rare Earths 10/10/2025 1:15:00 PM After intraday reversals to the downside yesterday, equities and precious metals are trading slightly higher today. Crude oil is lower, though, along with the dollar. Bonds are bouncing. Markets have been ebullient since the “Liberation Day” wipeout…and now, retail traders are piling into stocks in a big way. Citigroup Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">C</a>) tracks a basket of 46 retail-favored equities, and it said trading volume there <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/retail-crowd-beats-p-500-093000957.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">just hit a record high</a>. Those retail-favored stocks are collectively up 30% since the start of September, trouncing the 4.3% gain for the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) in the same timeframe. Meanwhile, one JPMorgan Chase & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=jpm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JPM</a>) measure of retail options selling activity just exploded to an all-time high. Analysts are divided about whether that could signal an imminent short-term top in stocks. REMX, SPX, GLD, SLV (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64494.png" alt="chart" width="558" height="311" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, China implemented new restrictions <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/09/china-expands-rare-earth-export-restrictions-ahead-of-possible-trump-xi-meeting.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">that could tighten global supplies</a> of rare earth metals…a move that could reignite China-US trade tensions. China will now require exporters to get government approval before shipping certain goods abroad. The restrictions apply to any product with rare earth materials equal to more than 0.1% of its value. A separate rule would restrict exports of lithium batteries and related equipment. Thanks to tightening supply and rising prices, the VanEck Rare Earths and Strategic Metals ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=remx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">REMX</a>) has surged more than 91% year-to-date. Finally, the precious metals market is getting more volatile. Spot silver <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-09/spot-silver-hits-highest-in-decades-on-haven-rally-tight-market?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">prices just topped $51 an ounce</a> in London for the first time since 1980. But yesterday, US gold futures prices slid more than $100 an ounce at one point, breaking down through the $4,000 level before regaining it again. The moves come at a time of intense investor interest – with photos of Australian bullion buyers <a href="https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15175743/gold-price-australia.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lined up around the block</a> in Sydney making their rounds on social media. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64494/market-minute-10-10-25-retail-piles-into-stocks-as-china-restricts-rare-earths/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-8-25- Gold Blows Past $4K; "Circular" AI Deals Eyed 10/8/2025 2:15:00 PM Gold continues to shine, blowing past $4,000-an-ounce yesterday and running even higher today. Silver is getting closer to an all-time high, too, while crude oil and equites are rallying modestly. Ditto for Treasuries and the US dollar. The “Debasement Trade” shows no sign of letting up. Investors the world over are flocking to precious metals and cryptocurrencies amid a surge in global government debt, deficits, and currency debasement. Central banks are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/gold-price-central-bank-28eac30f?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">accumulating gold</a> willy nilly, too. Plus, gold ETF buyers plowed more money into bullion funds in September than in any month in the last three years. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64484.png" alt="chart" width="636" height="322" /> Source: Bloomberg Result: Gold is now up <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-08/gold-soars-past-4-000-as-us-shutdown-adds-fuel-to-record-rally?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than 50% in 2025</a>! In fact, it is easily outpacing the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) in this new century. As for related STOCKS? The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gdx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GDX</a>) has surged 127% this year…more than 4X the gain of the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aiq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AIQ</a>) – and closing in the 140.9% return of AI darling Palantir Technologies Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pltr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PLTR</a>). Speaking of AI, Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) reportedly inked another <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-10-07/openai-s-nvidia-amd-deals-boost-1-trillion-ai-boom-with-circular-deals?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">quasi-“circular” deal</a> with Elon Musk’s xAI startup. The AI venture is <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-invest-musk-xai-part-231116143.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raising $20 billion in equity and debt</a> to finance its Colossus 2 data center project in Tennessee. Nvidia will invest up to $2 billion to fund the xAI facility’s development. Then a special purpose vehicle will turn around and buy Nvidia processors…and rent them to xAI. Outside analysts are increasingly questioning deal structures like these, saying they echo some of the troublesome transactions seen during the dot-com-bubble. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64484/market-minute-10-8-25-gold-blows-past-$4k-circular-ai-deals-eyed/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-7-25- Eye-Popping AI Gains Raise New Questions 10/7/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are flattish today after a big rally in tech yesterday. Crude oil and Treasuries are also subdued, but gold is testing $4K. The dollar is also up. OpenAI is out there signing deals with virtually everyone in Big Tech, leading to eye-popping share-price moves for partners like Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMD</a>). It surged more than 23% yesterday. But more outside analysts are questioning the circular nature of those transactions, and whether the Sam Altman-led firm might be <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-stakes-of-openais-dealmaking-100018146.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">biting off more than it can chew</a>. Still, that didn’t stop the private company from achieving <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-valuation-hits-500-billion-while-altman-signs-more-deals-in-asia-59b47a0d?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAh6mxWcnxpMTbVSKVHG7DQdUu7tc_-nbHCVaFc4mASJE2q0dyShQY9s4mo_bks%3D&gaa_ts=68e506f0&gaa_sig=c2H53HgNhYDrXrRGvmuZfEGpLpxeN3TIrBNPv7f3PtQ5P5cNWmCyB8-qk8S6gX_xAL231JDdxnrVekd6OVH-yA%3D%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a $500 BILLION valuation</a> in a recent funding round. AMD, ICE, HOOD (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64478.png" alt="chart" width="581" height="324" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> The blending of traditional financial markets and “prediction” markets continues, with NYSE parent Intercontinental Exchange Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ice" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ICE</a>) investing $2 billion in Polymarket. The transaction values Polymarket around $8 billion. Prediction market platforms like Polymarket and competitor Kalshi allow customers to make yes-or-no bets on a wide range of events in financial markets, sports, politics, and more. While Polymarket was banned from accepting trades from US-based customers in 2022, it’s getting re-established here now, helped along by the Trump Administration’s friendlier approach to the financial industry. As a side note, Robinhood Markets Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=HOOD" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HOOD</a>) customers can now trade Kalshi contracts directly in the Robinhood app <a href="https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/kalshis-rise-shakes-up-nfl-sunday-31cd81d6?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as part of a recent tie-up</a> between those two firms. Lastly, yet another minor mining stock is soaring thanks to federal government involvement. Shares of Canada’s Trilogy Metals Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tmq:ca" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TMQ.CA</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-orders-permits-alaska-mining-222300452.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">more than tripled</a> after President Trump authorized the permitting and construction of an Alaskan mining road. In exchange, the government would get a 10% stake in Trilogy and warrants to purchase another 7.5%. The road would open up access to the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/white-house-doubles-down-alaska-121642271.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Ambler Mining District</a>, where proposed projects could produce copper, cobalt, and other minerals. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64478/market-minute-10-7-25-eye-popping-ai-gains-raise-new-questions/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-6-25- Gold, Bitcoin Hit Records as Shutdown Enters Week Two 10/6/2025 2:45:00 PM Precious metals are rocking and rolling again, as are most cryptocurrencies. Stocks are modestly higher along with the US dollar, while Treasuries are slumping. The “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/gold-bitcoin-btc-extend-rally-as-us-dollar-japanese-yen-fall-on-politics?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Debasement Trade</a>” keeps enriching investors who hold gold and Bitcoin. Gold surged again overnight, trading within $40 of the $4,000-an-ounce level, while Bitcoin hit a new record above $125,000 before pulling back a bit. IBIT, GLD, FITB, CMA, AMD (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64475.png" alt="chart" width="1302" height="737" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Investors have been piling into these alternative forms of money and wealth-protection due to rising political dysfunction and government debt. Here in the US, the government shutdown is entering week two, with no sign of compromise emerging over the weekend. Election results in Japan and Europe suggest other countries will run policy loose to cope with suffocating debt loads, too – fueling even more debasement buying overseas. Meanwhile, regional banks are bulking up now that they face a much friendlier regulatory environment under the Trump Administration. Fifth Third Bancorp (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fitb" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FITB</a>) said it <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-06/fifth-third-agrees-to-buy-comerica-for-10-9-billion-in-stock?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">would buy Comerica Inc.</a> (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cma" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CMA</a>) for $10.9 billion, combining two modest-sized institutions into the ninth-largest US bank. Fifth Third is a Midwest institution that was looking for more Southeast US exposure, while Comerica wanted more access to retail deposits to fund growth. FITB’s $82.88-per-share offer price represents a 17% premium to where CMA closed on Friday. Stop me if you’ve heard this before: An Artificial Intelligence (AI) mega-deal has been signed! Open AI agreed to purchase <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/openai-amd-announce-massive-computing-deal-marking-new-phase-of-ai-boom-ed92cc42?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">up to six gigawatts</a> worth of semiconductors from Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMD</a>) over the next half-decade, while receiving warrants to buy up to 10% of AMD’s outstanding shares if certain milestones get hit. AMD shares surged on the news, which signals the next step in its plan to disrupt Nvidia Corp.’s (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) dominance in AI chips. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64475/market-minute-10-6-25-gold-bitcoin-hit-records-as-shutdown-enters-week-two/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-3-25- "Jobs Friday" Cancelled; Stocks, Gold Rise Anyway 10/3/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are adding to yesterday’s gains in the early going, while gold and silver are rebounding after a selloff on Thursday. Crude oil is getting closer to trading with a “5”-handle, and the dollar and Treasuries are mostly flat. Today is “Jobs Friday.” Or it would be if the government weren’t shut down. The usual report on unemployment, job creation, wage growth, and other labor market indicators wasn’t released at 8:30 am Eastern – and it’s unclear when the official data will come out. That said, the ADP private sector jobs report earlier this week missed expectations by a big margin. It showed <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64459/market-minute-10-1-25-gold-soars-stocks-slide-as-government-shuts/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the economy shed 32,000 jobs</a> last month when economists expected a gain of 50,000. Other <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/adp-jobs-report-bls-data-42362dae?mod=hp_lead_pos4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">less-well-known reports</a> from firms like Indeed and Revelio Labs also suggest that the job market is losing steam, though not imploding. BLK, OXY, BRK.A (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64469.png" alt="chart" width="591" height="329" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> The flood of Artificial Intelligence (AI) deals keeps gaining momentum. The Global Infrastructure Partners arm of BlackRock Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=blk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BLK</a>) is <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-03/gip-nears-deal-to-buy-aligned-data-centers-for-about-40-billion?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">planning to buy</a> Aligned Data Centers for around $40 billion, according to Bloomberg. Aligned operates 128 campuses and data centers in the US and South America. It recently obtained commitments for $12 billion in equity and debt financing to expand its footprint. In other news, Berkshire Hathaway (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=brk.a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BRK.A</a>) said this week that it would buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.’s (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=oxy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OXY</a>) petrochemical business for $9.7 billion. Warren Buffett’s conglomerate already owns about 27% of OXY, and the all-cash deal will help the parent company <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/berkshire-hathaway-occidental-petroleum-acquisition-db3f7c14?mod=hp_lead_pos11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shore up its finances</a>. With oil prices languishing in the $60s, investors had been growing more concerned about Occidental’s history of debt-fueled deals. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64469/market-minute-10-3-25-jobs-friday-cancelled-stocks-gold-rise-anyway/?scode=046929 Market Minute 10-1-25- Gold Soars, Stocks Slide as Government Shuts 10/1/2025 2:15:00 PM Gold is soaring and stocks are slumping amid ongoing chaos in Washington. Meanwhile, crude oil, interest rates, and the dollar are dipping...but Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are popping. Well, it’s official. The federal <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/us-begins-government-shutdown-with-trump-democrats-at-impasse?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">government is (mostly) shut down</a>. Republicans and Democrats in Congress couldn’t agree on a way to extend federal funding past midnight – and President Trump’s meeting on Monday failed to break the impasse. So, hundreds of thousands of workers will get furloughed and non-essential operations will cease until some kind of deal can be reached. Meanwhile, the labor market was already struggling last month, if PRIVATE data from ADP is to be believed. This morning’s report from the payroll processor showed the economy <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/us-firms-shed-32-000-jobs-in-adp-report-after-data-adjustment?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shed 32,000 jobs in September</a> – much worse than the gain of 50,000 jobs that economists were expecting. Official government data won’t be released Friday due to the shutdown. GLD, SLV, LAC (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64459.png" alt="chart" width="554" height="308" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Investors may want to keep some perspective on the “Shutdown Drama” though. I wrote about why panicking is <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64458/chart-of-the-day-10-1-25-my-take-on-trading-shutdown-dramas/?scode=059253">NOT the best option here</a>. Other MoneyShow expert contributors have also chimed in on how past shutdowns – while disrupting people’s daily lives – have NOT had lasting, negative impacts on markets. As for precious metals…WOW. Gold and silver just had the best quarter of performance in history, rising 17% and 29%, respectively. Both are rising again today as “chaos insurance” plays amid <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-10-01/gold-holds-ground-near-record-as-traders-weigh-risk-of-shutdown?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ongoing dysfunction and upheaval</a> in Washington. Plus, if the shutdown were to drag on, it would likely weaken the economy at the margins and provide extra fuel for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts. And that would likely pressure the dollar...boosting the appeal of metals. Speaking of the federal government, it IS moving forward with a <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64435/market-minute-9-24-25-feds-eyeing-another-corporate-stake/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plan to buy</a> a chunk of Lithium Americas Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lac" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LAC</a>). The Vancouver, Canada-based company is developing the Western Hemisphere’s largest lithium mine – called Thacker Pass – in Nevada. Uncle Sam will buy 5% of LAC and also 5% of the mining project. General Motors Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GM</a>) is a partner in the Thacker Pass joint venture because lithium is a critical component in Electric Vehicle (EV) batteries. LAC shares soared another 36% on the news – after already rising 92% in 2025 through yesterday. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64459/market-minute-10-1-25-gold-soars-stocks-slide-as-government-shuts/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-29-25- Markets Firm Despite Shutdown, Credit Concerns 9/29/2025 2:15:00 PM Equities are faring well, while gold and silver are rallying, as a key deadline in Washington looms. Crude oil is pulling back along with the dollar, while Treasuries are rising a bit. The clock is ticking down to a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-29/expectations-for-trump-summit-low-before-shutdown-deadline?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">potential federal government shutdown</a>. Current funding will run out Wednesday, Oct. 1 just after midnight. A Republican-led bill would extend funding through Nov. 21, but so far there haven’t been enough Democrats willing to vote for it. President Trump is meeting with congressional leaders today in an effort to break the impasse. But prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi – where people put real money on the line betting on various events – were <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-09-29-2025/card/betting-platforms-put-risk-of-government-shutdown-at-over-70--QJQFChe8IGJ0NINKcq97" target="_blank" rel="noopener">signaling a 70%-plus chance</a> of a shutdown this morning. Gold hit a fresh record above $3,850 an ounce, too, as markets priced in more shutdown-related economic risk. MAGS, PLTR, ORCL (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64450.png" alt="chart" width="555" height="309" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, Wall Street is looking to replace the “Mag 7” with something that better reflects the dominance of Artificial Intelligence (AI)-related stocks. “Fab Four,” “Big Six,” “Elite 8,” and other stock groupings and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-28/magnificent-7-is-passe-this-group-of-ai-stocks-can-replace-it?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">nicknames are getting thrown around</a>. That’s because stocks like Oracle Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=orcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ORCL</a>) and Palantir Technologies Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pltr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PLTR</a>) aren’t included in the original Mag 7 – even as they're are surging on AI-related growth. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mags" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MAGS</a>) is up a respectable 18.4% year-to-date…but ORCL is up 71.5% and PLTR is up 134.8%. Finally, can you have too much of a good thing? <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-credit-market-is-hummingand-that-has-wall-street-on-edge-0721c324?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Some credit analysts are wondering</a> if that’s the case today. The price of riskier bonds has been rising steadily, while the spread between yields on bonds issued by risky borrowers and government bond yields has been falling. That reflects extreme investor optimism about economic growth and future defaults – and it makes it cheaper for corporate borrowers to raise money. Just like during the housing bubble of the early-to-mid-2000s, however, borrowers, lenders, and investors can go too far. Back then, garbage mortgages of all kinds were underwritten – and when defaults spiked, it took down the financial markets. Bears are warning that the same thing may be happening in credit markets now. Two companies – subprime auto lender Tricolor Holdings and auto-parts supplier First Brands – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-29/first-brands-and-tricolor-show-why-private-credit-lenders-should-worry?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">just went bankrupt</a>, raising some eyebrows. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64450/market-minute-9-29-25-markets-firm-despite-shutdown-credit-concerns/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-26-25- New Tariffs Coming for Trucks, Drugs, and...Cabinets 9/26/2025 2:30:00 PM Stocks are bouncing after a modestly weak session on Thursday. Gold, silver, and crude oil are higher, too, while crude oil, Treasuries, and the dollar are flattish.   President Trump <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-to-slap-new-tariffs-on-pharma-big-trucks-ab37416e?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rolled out a slew of new tariffs</a> set to take effect Oct. 1 in a series of social media posts. Branded drugs from companies that aren’t building plants in the US? 100%. Heavy trucks imported into the US? 25%. Kitchen cabinets and bathroom vanities? 50%. Upholstered furniture? 30%. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64444.png" alt="chart" width="464" height="202" /> Trump cited “National Security and other reasons” for the latest round of levies. But after some initial post-announcement volatility, markets settled down. That’s in part because most drugmakers already have or are building US-based plants. The housing-related tariffs were actually <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-25/us-to-impose-25-tariff-on-heavy-truck-imports-from-oct-1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lower than some advocates had been pushing for</a>, too. How much is TikTok worth? The federal government is pushing a $14 billion valuation for the social media platform’s US operations. The administration wants its Chinese-based parent company ByteDance Ltd. to sell a majority stake to US investors. But TikTok’s US operations generate more than $10 billion in annual sales, which means that’s only a 1.4X revenue multiple. That valuation <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/prized-tiktok-business-valued-boring-044049900.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">looks incredibly low relative to peers</a> like Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) and Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=googl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) – which trade at 10X and 8X sales, respectively. China and the US are still haggling over the proposed deal, which has a 120-day completion deadline. Finally, the Wall Street Journal published a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-bubble-building-spree-55ee6128?mod=hp_lead_pos7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">front pager on its website</a> titled “Spending on AI Is at Epic Levels. Will It Ever Pay Off?” As the headline suggests, it covers the massive Artificial Intelligence spending plans companies are announcing and the enormous size and prodigious power demands of data centers going up around the US. The piece also raises questions about whether they’ll generate enough revenue over time to make the upfront investments worthwhile. It’s worth a read no matter where you come down on the AI debate. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64444/market-minute-9-26-25-new-tariffs-coming-for-trucks-drugs-andcabinets/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-24-25- Feds Eyeing Another Corporate Stake 9/24/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks rolled over into the close yesterday, but they’re trading mostly flat this morning. Gold and silver are pulling back along with Treasuries, while crude oil and the dollar are rising. Shares of Lithium Americas Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lac" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LAC</a>) are soaring more than 70% after reports the Trump Administration will take a stake of as much as 10% in the firm. The Biden Administration had loaned LAC $2.3 billion to fund a lithium mining project in Nevada. The stake would be granted as part of a renegotiation of that financing package. LAC, INTC, MP (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64435.png" alt="chart" width="574" height="319" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> The federal government has been increasing its ties with Corporate America under Trump, taking stakes in companies as wide-ranging as chipmaker Intel Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=intc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INTC</a>) and rare earth miner MP Materials Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MP</a>). LAC’s Thacker Pass project will be the <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/trump-administration-seeks-equity-stake-lithium-americas-amid-loan-talks-2025-09-23/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">largest lithium facility in the Western Hemisphere</a> if it opens on schedule in 2028. That, in turn, would reduce the US’ reliance on China for a metal critical for electronics and Electric Vehicles (EVs). Artificial Intelligence (AI) spending pledges just keep getting bigger – and investors keep rewarding them with higher share prices. Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=baba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BABA</a>) just said it would <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alibaba-shares-jump-ceo-reveals-031419352.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spend much more</a> than the $50 billion it originally announced back in February. The news sent US-traded shares of the Chinese company up more than 8% in the early going. The tech conglomerate operates cloud computing facilities in countries like the US and Australia, and will soon add data centers in Brazil, France, and the Netherlands. Lastly, a new wave of cryptocurrency ETFs will soon hit the US markets following the release of updated Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) guidelines. Those standards will reduce the time it takes to launch crypto ETFs dramatically, likely leading to a flood of new products that <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-etfs-set-flood-us-100554382.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will target less-popular cryptos</a> like Solana and XRP...or even Dogecoin. Investors can already choose from a wealth of funds that hold Bitcoin and Ethereum. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64435/market-minute-9-24-25-feds-eyeing-another-corporate-stake/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-23-25- Gold Surges; Tech Rallies on AI Tie Up 9/23/2025 2:25:00 PM Tech stocks rallied yesterday on more dealmaking, while gold surged to a fresh record overnight. This morning, crude oil is bouncing while Treasuries and the dollar are mostly flat. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) revolution continues to spawn big-money tie-ups, with the latest being Nvidia Corp.’s (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) plan to invest up to $100 billion in OpenAI. OpenAI would, in turn, use Nvidia’s money to buy…Nvidia chips. Specifically, OpenAI will use the funds to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/nvidia-openai-100-billion-deal-data-centers-d2f85cae?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">build more AI data centers</a> -- with each gigawatt of NVDA systems deployed resulting in the release of more financing. The interesting arrangement <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/openai-oracle-sign-300-billion-computing-deal-among-biggest-in-history-ff27c8fe?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">follows a $300 billion</a> OpenAI-Oracle Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=orcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ORCL</a>) deal that helped send ORCL shares up by the most in any single day since 1992. Some skeptics are asking if this enormous raise-money-and-spend-money cycle is sustainable, though. NVDA, GLD, ARGT (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/dailyguru64429.png" alt="chart" width="535" height="298" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, $3,800 an ounce fell by the wayside in the gold market. Futures topped that level in overnight trading, while silver closed in on $45, amid an ongoing surge in central bank and ETF buying. The SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) is up 42.5% year-to-date, while the People’s Bank of China has added gold to its reserves for 10 months in a row. The Chinese central bank is even reportedly trying to get friendly foreign central banks <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-23/china-courts-foreign-gold-reserves-in-bid-to-boost-global-clout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">to store their reserves within the country’s borders</a>. The plan would have the Shanghai Gold Exchange acting as a custodian for other countries, similar to what the UK, US, and Switzerland have done for decades. Finally, Argentina could be in line for a US-funded bailout after voters and investors soured on President Javier Milei’s reformist plans. Milei slashed spending, removed tariffs, and otherwise enacted free-market-oriented reforms to bring down inflation. But rising unemployment and dollar flight caused Argentine stocks, bonds, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-treasury-chief-hints-at-argentina-financial-rescue-334a3b3c?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">and the peso currency to fall</a>. That prompted US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to suggest yesterday that the US could help out by using “swap lines, direct currency purchase, and purchases of US-dollar denominated government debt.” Argentine markets rallied in response, though the Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=argt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ARGT</a>) is still down about 10% year-to-date. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64429/market-minute-9-23-25-gold-surges-tech-rallies-on-ai-tie-up/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-22-25- Tech Sector Scrambles Amid H1-B Policy Shift 9/22/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks finished last week on a high note, but they’re giving back ground today. Cryptocurrencies are broadly lower, but gold just surged to a fresh record and silver rose alongside. The dollar is a bit lower along with crude oil prices. Top US technology companies – and Indian outsourcing firms they work with – scrambled to figure out what to do on the staffing front over the weekend. The catalyst: New Trump Administration rules that would <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trumps-100-000-h-1b-visa-fee-sets-off-scramble-across-corporate-america-adb14a3c" target="_blank" rel="noopener">charge companies $100,000 each</a> to bring in specialist foreign workers on H-1B visas. Companies like Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>), Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>), and Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) are the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-21/trump-s-pricey-h-1b-visas-rattle-prospects-seeking-to-work-in-us?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heaviest US users of the program</a>. The White House later clarified the fees would apply to new applicants, and only as a one-time fee versus annual. But companies in fields like technology and engineering rely on H-1B workers to fill specialized roles, and will now <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/will-the-100-000-visa-fee-create-more-u-s-jobs-economists-arent-so-sure-8693001d?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have to figure out what comes next</a>. Supporters of the change say it will lead to more hiring in America, while detractors say firms will just shift more work overseas to cut costs. AMZN, MSFT, META, PFE (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64426.png" alt="chart" width="512" height="352" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Weight-loss drugs are all the rage in the pharmaceutical sector, and Pfizer Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pfe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PFE</a>) is trying to cash in. The Big Pharma company <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pfizer-closes-7-3-billion-040417987.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said it would acquire</a> Metsera Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mtsr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MTSR</a>) for up to $7.3 billion in cash and potential future milestone payments in a bid to speed up development of weight-loss treatments. Companies are particularly keen to develop drugs that help patients shed fat without losing too much muscle mass. ODP Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=odp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ODP</a>) – the owner of the Office Depot retail chain – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-22/office-depot-owner-to-be-taken-private-for-about-1-billion?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is being taken private</a>. Atlas Holdings is paying $1 billion, or $28 per share, for ODP. That’s a 34% premium to where the shares traded at the end of last week. As more business and consumer customers shifted to buying office products online, the firm struggled. But Atlas will give it a go outside of public market scrutiny. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64426/market-minute-9-22-25-tech-sector-scrambles-amid-h1-b-policy-shift/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-19-25- Behold the "Hedge America" Trade 9/19/2025 2:15:00 PM After a day when four major US averages all set records together for the first time since 2021, equity markets are subdued. Gold and silver are flattish, too, while crude oil is down a bit. The dollar and interest rates are rising modestly. Turns out many foreign investors aren’t outright dumping US assets. They’re buying them – and simultaneously using derivatives to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-18/-hedge-america-trade-fuels-global-rush-into-short-dollar-wagers?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hedge against losses</a> tied to the falling US dollar, according to Bloomberg. The “Hedge America” trade could ultimately top $1 trillion by one estimate. But ironically, increased global demand for dollar hedges could actually help fuel deeper dollar declines. ^DXY, MAGS (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64420.png" alt="chart" width="550" height="306" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/">YCharts</a> Sure, it’s a bubble...but the surge in “Big Tech” stocks has further to run – or so say Bank of America Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bac" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BAC</a>) strategists led by Michael Hartnett. After studying 10 other bubbles, they found average gains of 244%. The Mag 7 stocks <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-hartnett-says-magnificent-7-100833297.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">have “only” risen 223%</a> from their March 2023 low. They also “only” trade at 39 times trailing 12-month earnings, compared with a peak bubble average of 58. So far in 2025, the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mags" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MAGS</a>) is up 18.1%. The US government may get even more deeply involved in private business, according to the Wall Street Journal. The Trump Administration’s economic team reportedly may use some of the $550 billion from a US-Japan trade deal to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-manufacturing-federal-land-ef3c02ba?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fund domestic factories and infrastructure</a>. Nothing is set in stone yet, but the money would likely be sprinkled throughout the semiconductor, pharmaceutical, energy, shipbuilding, and tech sectors. Meanwhile, investors will be watching to see how today’s call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping goes. The two leaders are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-sets-the-stage-for-his-highly-anticipated-friday-call-with-xi-jinping-161114678.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected to discuss</a> the potential sale of TikTok’s US operations to a consortium of US investors, semiconductor trade policy, and tariffs the two nations have slapped on each other’s imports. A 90-day pause on the worst levies is set to expire in November. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64420/market-minute-9-19-25-behold-the-hedge-america-trade/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-17-25- Markets Mark Time as Fed Decision Looms 9/17/2025 2:40:00 PM Most assets are marking time right now, including stocks and Treasuries. Gold, silver, and crude oil are trading slightly lower along with Bitcoin, while the dollar is up a smidge. Today is one of those days where investors and traders are holding their collective breath. The Federal Reserve is wrapping up its two-day meeting right now and will announce its interest rate decision later today. Rate futures markets are fully pricing in a 25-basis point cut, with about a 6% chance the Fed goes 50 instead. As the Wall Street Journal’s “Fed Whisperer” <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-reserve-voters-division-dissent-99e932a6?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nick Timiraos wrote</a>, “This week’s Federal Reserve meeting is shaping up to be one of the strangest in years” because of <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64403/market-minute-9-16-25-gold-stocks-hit-records-on-run-it-hot-trade/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">all the political gamesmanship</a> surrounding it. President Trump himself weighed in on Sunday, suggesting the Fed deliver a “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-14/trump-expects-a-big-cut-from-federal-reserve-this-week" target="_blank" rel="noopener">big cut</a>.” 30-Year Mortgage Rate Average (3-Year Chart) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64410.png" alt="chart" width="515" height="286" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Regardless of exactly what happens today, it’s clear that Fed Chairman Jay Powell & Co. have pivoted when it comes to policy. They are focusing less on tariff-driven inflation and more on labor market weakness. Meanwhile, 30-year mortgage rates have been drifting lower in anticipation of easier policy. They recently slipped below 6.4%, helping push refinancing application activity to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-17/us-mortgage-rates-fall-to-2024-levels-fueling-refinancing-surge?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its highest since early 2022</a>, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Finally, shares of Workday Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=wday" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WDAY</a>) are surging after an activist investor targeted the provider of cloud-based corporate HR, accounting, and audit software. Elliott Management said <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/workday-rises-elliott-reveals-2-121125888.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it built up a $2 billion stake</a> in WDAY shares, and will work with management to boost the firm’s value. Separately, Workday said it would buy back $5 billion of its own stock over the next two years. It also revealed the $1.1 billion purchase of an Artificial Intelligence-focused firm Sana. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64410/market-minute-9-17-25-markets-mark-time-as-fed-decision-looms/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-16-25- Gold, Stocks Hit Records on "Run it Hot" Trade 9/16/2025 2:25:00 PM After another solid move higher yesterday, stocks are marking time this morning. Ditto for Treasuries. Gold, silver, and crude oil are modestly higher, while the Dollar Index is testing the 97 level again – and closing in on a fresh 2025 low. Overall, stocks have been powering higher as the “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stock-trading-records-run-it-hot-74eddc91?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAgV7OMXQ8CA0CKwyH7ei7mI4l_relxXC-qx06uXlggUHh9rW6xigy-yWSq3cT0%3D&gaa_ts=68c94e7b&gaa_sig=A08k3zNnn2w2_1AN15lamZqV6gASwuLrUcCmMpUzruuUjSKO4IQ7J2UZhtl4Q26w8PzhShbzIUFgGMJLpjWIEA%3D%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Run it hot</a>” trade gains steam. The S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=%5ESPX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) just hit another record high, while the Nasdaq Composite extended its win streak to nine sessions. Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=googl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) <a href="https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-street-indexes-end-higher-ahead-fed-meeting-tesla-alphabet-rally-2025-09-15/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also topped $3 trillion</a> in market capitalization. Driving the action: Wall Street expectations of cheaper money, plus an economic resurgence fueled by tax cuts and less government regulation. SPX, GOOGL, GLD (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64403.png" alt="chart" width="545" height="303" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Speaking of cheaper money, the Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting begins today – and things are more interesting than usual given the personnel dynamics in play. President Trump’s attempt to force Fed Governor Lisa Cook from her position was just <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-16/trump-can-t-fire-cook-before-fed-meeting-appeals-court-rules?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blocked by an appeals court</a>, allowing her to participate in this meeting. Meanwhile, Trump's economic adviser Stephen Miran was confirmed as a Fed Governor late Monday. That means he’ll take part in the meeting as well. The increased politicization of the Fed is one reason gold continues to rally. It hit yet another all-time high overnight of $3,737 an ounce. The precious metal is up 40% year-to-date, making this its <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/gold-price-rising-61bc0b52?gaa_at=eafs&gaa_n=ASWzDAjzmcu2ORKbZ5e5dipDDuHXPcyVoh1YQDdDfiwgqdUgCi6ycQJRYnTACTViSOU%3D&gaa_ts=68c94d82&gaa_sig=dz_TwxDg2-oXbkz626twptRd6QdSFCfpdq0_9j7ixTljg1cPEnkBxHwGeIqp0T4HWTf8v9G43mR6W0Oor9FxAA%3D%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">best year since 1979</a>. Back then, inflation was soaring thanks to the 1970s-era energy crisis. While Initial Public Offering (IPO) activity is coming back strong, PRIVATE markets continue to attract an incredible amount of capital. Bloomberg reports that the 20 largest pension funds <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-16/private-equity-to-private-credit-exposure-at-big-pension-funds-nears-5-trillion?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">now hold $5 TRILLION in private assets</a>, including private credit and private equity investments. The promise of higher potential returns, lower volatility, and increased diversification has driven money to private assets. But some worry about "hidden" financial stability risks that can result from the movement of money to less-regulated, more-opaque markets. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64403/market-minute-9-16-25-gold-stocks-hit-records-on-run-it-hot-trade/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-15-25- "Fed Week" Hopes Propel Stocks Higher 9/15/2025 2:15:00 PM Equities are trying to kick the week off with a bounce, as is crude oil. Gold and silver are pulling back a bit along with the dollar, while Treasuries are mostly flat. It’s “Fed Week” – with Federal Reserve officials set to meet on Tuesday and Wednesday and discuss policy options. Chairman Jay Powell and company <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2025/09/14/fed-interest-rate-cut-september-preview/86065144007/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will definitely cut interest rates</a> for the first time in nine months thanks to deteriorating employment data. While it will most likely be a 25-basis point move, there is a (very) small chance we’ll get a 50-bp cut. Either way, Wall Street will be paying close attention to the Fed’s forward guidance. Rate futures markets are currently pricing in a decent likelihood of three or four more 25-bp cuts through mid-2026. If the Fed pushes back against that narrative, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-15/wall-street-strategists-see-stock-rally-stalling-on-fed-rate-cut?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it could harm equities</a>. After all, expectations of easier money are one reason the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) has rallied 12% year-to-date. SPX, TSLA (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/dailyguru64398.png" alt="chart" width="515" height="287" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, China appears to be playing hardball with US chipmakers, ruling that Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) violated Chinese antitrust laws and announcing a separate investigation that impacts chips made by Texas Instruments Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=txn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TXN</a>). The moves <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-15/china-finds-nvidia-violated-antitrust-law-after-initial-probe?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dinged NVDA and TXN shares</a> during US-China negotiations that are underway in Spain. Those talks could lead to a summit between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next month. Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=TSLA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) shares surged more than 7% on Friday, and they’re climbing again today. One reason: CEO Elon Musk <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-15/elon-musk-purchases-about-1-billion-worth-of-tesla-shares?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">spent $1 billion buying 2.57 million TSLA</a> shares in the open market, his first such purchase since February 2020. The stock has been performing poorly because some buyers shunned its cars for political reasons and others avoided them due to a lack of model updates. But after being down 45% on the year in April, TSLA is now trading back in the black. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64398/market-minute-9-15-25-fed-week-hopes-propel-stocks-higher/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-10-25- Markets Solid as Oracle Soars, PPI Slips 9/10/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are solid in the early going after another round of gains Tuesday. Crude oil is up along with gold, silver, and Bitcoin. The dollar and Treasuries are mostly flat.   Big Tech name Oracle Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=orcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ORCL</a>) is getting a LOT bigger today, with the stock recently up a stunning 31% on blockbuster backlog data (after being up 46.1% year-to-date through yesterday). The cloud computing, database software, and Artificial Intelligence (AI) play said it had a <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/oracles-backlog-surges-with-major-customer-deals-in-first-quarter-047216cd?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$455 BILLION pipeline of contracts</a>, compared with just $138 billion at the end of the fiscal first quarter. Multibillion dollar contracts were signed with several companies, helping overshadow the fact the recent quarter’s sales and earnings were a bit light. ORCL, IPO (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64390.png" alt="chart" width="540" height="301" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Markets are getting a look at the final round of inflation data ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve meeting, starting with the Producer Price Index this morning. Both the headline and core PPI FELL 0.1% in August, compared with expectations for increases of 0.3%. That helped bring down annual wholesale inflation rates to 2.6% and 2.8%, respectively – encouraging news for the Fed. Another fintech name is set to start trading on the New York Stock Exchange – Klarna Group (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=klar" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KLAR</a>). The Swedish firm is a buy-now, pay-later lender, and it <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/swedish-fintech-klarna-set-hotly-104519548.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sold 34.3 million shares at $40</a> each in its Initial Public Offering (IPO). That values the BNPL company at $15.1 billion, down from its peak private-market valuation in 2021 but well above its 2022 nadir. IPO activity is coming back strong in 2025, and the Renaissance IPO ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ipo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO</a>) has returned 18.1% year-to-date. Investors have largely looked past the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. Equities are powering ahead despite the unresolved conflict, even as SOME of the rise in gold likely stems from lingering geopolitical concerns. But <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-10/poland-scrambles-jets-shuts-warsaw-airport-over-russian-drones?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">several Russian drones violated Polish airspace</a> overnight -- and NATO jets shot them down. European officials called it an “intentional” move rather than an accident by Russia, ratcheting up tensions another notch. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64390/market-minute-9-10-25-markets-solid-as-oracle-soars-ppi-slips/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-9-25- Metals Mega-Merger, Jobs Revisions in Focus 9/9/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are fairly quiet so far this morning, with equities flat and crude oil and gold up a smidge. Both the dollar and interest rates are inching higher. Many metals -- and mining stocks -- have been soaring all year. Now, we have a mega-merger in the sector to talk about. Anglo American Plc (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ngloy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NGLOY</a>) of the UK and Teck Resources Ltd. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=TECK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TECK</a>) of Canada <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-09/anglo-american-reaches-deal-for-no-premium-merger-with-teck?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will link up in a $55 billion transaction</a>. The combined “Anglo Teck” firm will be headquartered in Vancouver and have its primary listing in London. NGLOY, TECK (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64384.png" alt="chart" width="547" height="304" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Anglo and Teck’s mines produce iron ore, copper, zinc, and other metals in Chile, Peru, Canada, South Africa, Brazil, Finland, and the US. Several other combinations have been discussed or announced in the global mining sector over the past two years. One reason: Companies want more exposure to copper – a key component metal for the energy transition. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) revises previously reported jobs data once a year in what’s called the “Benchmark payrolls revision” process. It does so after delayed, comprehensive data becomes available (compared with the less-thorough, but more timely, data it uses to produce each monthly jobs report). This year, economists think we could see a whopper of a downward shift for the 12 months through March 2025. That would follow a sizable 818,000-job cut in 2024. If the figures to be released at 10:00 am Eastern show the labor market was even weaker than previously expected, it will further underscore why the Federal Reserve is going to start cutting rates again. That process should start at the September meeting set for next week. Finally, Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/an-iphone-air-new-watches-and-heart-rate-tracking-airpods-what-to-expect-at-apples-sept-9-event-182148742.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will kick off its “big reveal” event</a> later today at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. Analysts and investors will get the chance to evaluate AAPL’s new iPhone 17 lineup, and consumers will learn how much more they’ll have to pay to get their hands on one of the new smartphones. New Apple Watches and AirPods should also be revealed. AAPL shares have underperformed this year, losing 4.6% so far in 2025. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64384/market-minute-9-9-25-metals-mega-merger-jobs-revisions-in-focus/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-8-25- Starlink Shells Out, While PNC Bulks Up 9/8/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are fairly quiet in the early going, with stocks, Treasuries, and the dollar mostly flat. Gold and silver are holding recent big gains, while crude oil is rebounding. Elon Musk’s SpaceX is spending $17 billion in cash and stock to buy wireless spectrum from EchoStar Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=sats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SATS</a>). The deal will help boost the company’s Starlink satellite-based mobile services business, while allowing EchoStar to retire debt and fund ongoing operations. The firm had run into financial trouble and recently sold another chunk of spectrum licenses to AT&T Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=t" target="_blank" rel="noopener">T</a>) for $23 billion. SATS shares had been falling steadily from 2018-2024, before surging recently on deal news. SATS, T, PNC (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64381.png" alt="chart" width="552" height="307" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> We haven’t seen many mega-bank mergers in recent years, despite talk that deals would be easier to come by in a Trump 2.0 environment. But PNC Financial Services Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pnc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PNC</a>) did just <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/pnc-to-acquire-colorado-based-regional-bank-in-4-1-billion-deal-c2a61175?mod=hp_lead_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announce a $4.1 billion buy</a> of Colorado-based FirstBank Holding. The deal would add privately held FirstBank’s roughly 100 branches in Colorado and Arizona to PNC’s footprint. PNC is already the eighth-largest US bank. Finally, a handful of prognosticators are breaking ranks on the Federal Reserve. Standard Chartered strategists forecast that Chair Jay Powell and his fellow policymakers <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stanchart-revises-fed-cut-expectations-034848417.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will cut interest rates by 50 basis points</a> at next week’s meeting, rather than the more-standard 25 bps. They suggested a bigger “catch up” cut could be necessary <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64375/market-minute-9-5-25-wretched-jobs-report-fuels-wild-market-moves/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">given the lousy jobs data</a> we got last week. Still, rate futures markets are only assigning <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64380/chart-of-the-day-9-8-25-just-how-much-could-the-fed-cut-now/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about a 12% chance</a> of a 50-bp move, according to CME FedWatch. The Fed’s remaining meetings in 2025 conclude on Sept. 17, Oct. 29, and Dec. 10. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64381/market-minute-9-8-25-starlink-shells-out-while-pnc-bulks-up/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-5-25- Wretched Jobs Report Fuels Wild Market Moves 9/5/2025 2:15:00 PM Today’s jobs report was downright wretched…and it’s fueling WILD moves across multiple asset classes. Gold and silver are rallying, Treasury yields are plunging, the dollar is tanking, while equities are mixed. Now let’s talk about the data. Economists were expecting a gain of 75,000 jobs in August. But the economy added just 22,000. Plus, the last two readings were revised downward by a net 21,000 jobs – with June’s new number actually NEGATIVE-13,000. That was the first subzero reading since December 2020. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64375.png" alt="chart" width="476" height="288" /> Source: Wall Street Journal The unemployment rate climbed to 4.3%, while average hourly earnings rose 0.3% -- both in-line with forecasts. But the average workweek dipped. Plus, all the other labor market reports this week – from the Challenger, Grey & Christmas layoff and ADP employment reports to the <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/dailyguru-64367/jolts-miss-boosts-rate-cut-bets--but-friday-data-looms/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recent JOLTS data</a> – came in weak. The data locks in a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. Additional cuts in the back half of 2025 are being priced in as well – with some pundits debating whether the Fed will “go 50” (basis points) this month. The <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64338/chart-of-the-day-8-25-25-heres-a-post-powell-trend-you-can-bank-on/?Scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yield curve has been steepening for months</a>, and this data is turbocharging that trend. Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) got slapped down by a Delaware court when it tried to give CEO Elon Musk a generous compensation package worth more than $50 billion. So naturally, the company decided to…<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-offers-unprecedented-1-trillion-111941243.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offer him up to $1 TRILLION</a> in a new one! Musk would have to hit very aggressive growth milestones to get the full payout in the 10-year plan, which is unprecedented in US corporate history. But even the upfront price tag of $87.8 billion is generous by most standards. Finally, it’s September and you know what that means. No, not the start of football season (though that, too!)…the annual Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) product reveal extravaganza! The tech giant <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-05/what-apple-is-planning-to-introduce-at-sept-9-awe-dropping-iphone-17-event?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will release its newest iPhone lineup</a>, plus other consumer gadgets like smartwatches, next Tuesday. Early reports suggest the iPhone 17 line will feature several appearance upgrades, an ultrathin “Air” model, and more. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64375/market-minute-9-5-25-wretched-jobs-report-fuels-wild-market-moves/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-3-25- "Bonds OUT, Gold IN" is The New Thing 9/3/2025 2:35:00 PM Stocks slumped as bonds got dumped yesterday. But gold and silver surged again, with the former hitting a record high. We’re seeing a similar – though more muted – dynamic today. Crude oil and the dollar are modestly lower. Out of bonds, into gold. That seems to be the trade this week…and really, for the last several months. This week alone, 30-year bond yields in the UK hit <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-03/global-bond-selloff-is-extending-with-longer-debt-leading-losses" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the highest since 1998</a> while yields on 20-year Japanese notes hit the highest since Y2K. The 30-year came within a whisker of breaching 5% to the upside here in the US, too. What’s behind the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-03/long-end-treasury-yields-push-toward-5-amid-global-bond-retreat?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">global bond market</a> rout? Governments are buried in debt and either unable or unwilling to implement policies that would fix the problem. Progress on the inflation front has slowed amid rising tariffs and higher input costs. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64366.png" alt="chart" width="499" height="307" /> Source: Bloomberg Meanwhile, Investors have been rattled by threats to central bank independence. That’s particularly true here in the US where President Trump is trying to stack the Federal Reserve with friendly policymakers. Plus, more institutional managers are abandoning the “60/40” portfolio model (60% stocks, 40% bonds). They’re turning to models that incorporate alternative and hard assets instead – including precious metals like gold. In antitrust news, Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=googl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) caught a break when a US district court judge avoided slapping the Big Tech firm with the harshest penalties he could have chosen. Judge Amit P. Mehta ruled last year that Google had a search monopoly, but <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/judge-bars-google-from-exclusive-search-deals-orders-data-sharing-e65a2191?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">didn’t force the company to sell</a> its Chrome browser business in this week's remedy ruling. Google also won’t have to abandon certain distribution payments and procedures, a boon to it and its partner Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>). GOOGL and AAPL shares rose in response. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64366/market-minute-9-3-25-bonds-out-gold-in-is-the-new-thing-/?scode=046929 Market Minute 9-2-25- Food Co. Splits, Record Gold in Focus 9/2/2025 2:15:00 PM After a three-day weekend, stocks are losing ground in September’s first trading session. Gold and silver are on fire, though, while crude oil is also rising. The dollar is popping, while Treasuries are flopping. The $46 billion mega-merger that created the food conglomerate Kraft Heinz Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=khc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KHC</a>) is being unwound. The stock has underperformed for ages, losing 14.4% in the past three years even as the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) gained 69.8%. With consumer attitudes and preferences in the food space shifting, the company decided it had no choice but to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/kraft-heinz-to-separate-into-two-publicly-traded-companies?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">split into two publicly traded entities</a>. KHC, PEP, SPY, GLD, SLV (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64360.png" alt="chart" width="584" height="325" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> One will focus on selling Heinz ketchup and boxed meals like Kraft Mac & Cheese. The other will sell Oscar Mayer hotdogs, Lunchables, and other products. No names have been announced yet. Officials said the transaction should wrap up in H2 2026. It follows other spinoffs, including the 2023 split of Kellogg Co.’s snack and cereal businesses. Elsewhere in the food and beverage space, Elliott Investment Management has reportedly built a $4 billion stake in PepsiCo. Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pep" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PEP</a>). The activist investment firm <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/pepsi-activist-elliott-investment-management-9a46654e?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will agitate for changes</a> at the underperforming company. PepsiCo sells everything from its namesake cola plus Mountain Dew and Gatorade to food products like Lay’s potato chips and Quaker Oats. Finally, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-02/gold-hits-record-high-above-3-500-as-rate-cut-bets-fuel-demand?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gold traded to a record high</a> in the last 24 hours amid expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, macroeconomic uncertainty, and ongoing buying by official and private investors. Both the yellow metal and silver have doubled in the past three years, and both are trouncing equities in 2025 – with the SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) up 31.3% year-to-date and the iShares Silver Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=slv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SLV</a>) up 37.4%. I wrote about the likelihood of this gold breakout – and the forces fueling it – in <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64332/chart-of-the-day-8-22-25-does-this-mean-its-almost-time-for-golds-next-breakout/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this Aug. 22 column</a>. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64360/market-minute-9-2-25-food-co-splits-record-gold-in-focus/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-29-25- SPX Hits Highs, But Inflation Concerns Creep In 8/29/2025 2:46:00 PM Stocks are giving back some gains in the early going today, as are crude oil, gold, and silver. Long-term Treasuries are slipping, too, while the dollar is modestly higher. The S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=^spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) topped 6,500 yesterday – a new all-time high – amid optimism about earnings and economic growth. A revised government estimate <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-27/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showed GDP growing 3.3% in Q2</a>, up from the originally reported 3% gain. Expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, along with a dip in jobless claims, are also fueling animal spirits on Wall Street. In other markets, gold is closing in on a record high again…while silver is about 50 cents away from topping $40 an ounce. The one fly in the ointment? Longer-term inflation concerns. The yield curve has been steepening, <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64338/chart-of-the-day-8-25-25-heres-a-post-powell-trend-you-can-bank-on/?Scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as I wrote a few days ago</a>. Now the 10-year “breakeven rate” <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-29/bond-market-s-inflation-gauge-touches-six-month-high-on-fed-risk?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is trading around a six-month high</a>.  10-Year Breakeven Rate (YTD) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/MARKETMINUTE-64357.png" alt="chart" width="1007" loading="lazy" /> Source: FRED That’s the spread between yields on nominal 10-year Treasuries and yields on 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, or TIPS. Without getting too deep in the weeds, a higher breakeven rate signals that investors are growing concerned that too much easy money and too many rate cuts NOW could lead to worsening inflation LATER. The dynamic is why the iShares TIPS Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tip" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TIP</a>) is outperforming the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tlt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TLT</a>) – with a year-to-date total return of 6.5% vs. 2.4%. Another brick was added to the tariff wall overnight. Specifically, the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-28/us-ends-duty-free-parcels-as-e-commerce-grows-too-big-to-mail?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$800 “de minimis” tariff exemption</a> on packages sent from foreign countries ended today. Now, each shipment will get slapped with a levy that will vary based on country of origin. Foreign postal services can also opt to pay a flat fee of $80 to $200 per item for the next six months. Many shippers and foreign companies have halted US-bound shipments or warned about delays and price hikes amid confusion about the tariffing process. Please Note: Due to the Labor Day holiday, there will be no Top Pros’ Top Picks newsletter on Monday, Sept. 1. Look for your next regular issue on Tuesday. My team and I hope you enjoy the long holiday weekend! https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64357/market-minute-8-29-25-spx-hits-highs-but-inflation-concerns-creep-in/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-27-25- Markets Eye Nvidia Earnings, India Tariffs 8/27/2025 2:22:00 PM Stocks rebounded from early weakness yesterday, though they’re subdued this morning. The same goes for gold, silver, and crude oil. The long end of the Treasury market is selling off again, though, while the dollar is modestly higher. Markets are eagerly awaiting earnings out of Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) after the bell today, with Chinese sales being a key line item in focus. The country accounted for about $5.5 billion in revenue last quarter, but that number will be a lot closer to zero in the quarter being reported today. Investors will want to hear if a rebound is coming despite US-China trade tensions that have resulted in <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/nvidia-earnings-stock-market-today-08-27-2025/card/why-china-needs-nvidia-x4MB9NnJY7QSyaz5LvSv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reduced orders for Nvidia products</a>. Meanwhile, India’s tariff bill is shooting higher. President Trump doubled the country’s tariff rate to 50% overnight in an effort to discourage the country from continuing to buy Russian oil. More than 55% of the goods it exports to the US – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/india-braces-for-50-tariff-shock-as-trump-s-levies-set-to-land" target="_blank" rel="noopener">including textiles and jewelry</a> – will get hit with the steeper levies, even as pharmaceuticals and electronics will dodge them for now. Unlike other US-traded ETFs that track foreign markets, the iShares MSCI India ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=inda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INDA</a>) is underperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) – down 0.1% versus up 10%. INDA, SPY (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/MARKETMINUTE-64348.png" alt="chart" width="1007" loading="lazy" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Booming demand for Artificial Intelligence (AI) infrastructure is making investors who target the right stocks rich. But it’s costing American billpayers <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/soaring-power-bills-largest-us-110000345.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">by driving up electricity costs</a>. The boom in data center construction is driving up power demand and spending on the electric grid. Result: Residential electric bills rose 10% in the first five months of 2025, and the Energy Information Administration forecasts they’ll rise another 5.8% next year. Finally, it’s a little early to buy and wear one of Canada Goose Holdings Inc.’s (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=goos">GOOS</a>) heavy-duty jackets. But apparently, it’s not too early <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-goose-receives-private-bids-020645614.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">for someone to buy the whole company</a>! Bain Capital owns a majority stake in the company, and it’s reportedly looking to sell. CNBC reported that at least a couple of private equity buyers have made offers, as have foreign clothing makers. GOOS shares were up 21.3% year-to-date through yesterday, but they’re down 49% in the last five years. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64348/market-minute-8-27-25-markets-eye-nvidia-earnings-india-tariffs/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-26-25- Trump Escalates Fed Fight 8/26/2025 2:25:00 PM After a late-day selloff yesterday, equities are stabilizing in the early going today. Crude oil is lower, while gold and silver are mixed. Bitcoin is back above $110,000 after breaching that level overnight. The dollar is down.  President Trump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-26/trump-removes-fed-governor-lisa-cook-effective-immediately?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dramatically escalated</a> his Federal Reserve fight overnight, saying he would move to fire Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook for alleged mortgage fraud. Trump’s move follows allegations from Bill Pulte, head of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, that Cook took out two mortgages on two separate properties in 2021 and named both homes as her primary residence. Gold, Dollar Futures (Overnight % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/MARKETMINUTE-64342.png" alt="chart" width="1007" loading="lazy" /> Cook said she will fight the move, which comes after several other moves by Trump to pressure the Fed into cutting interest rates sooner and more dramatically. In the 112-year history of the Fed, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-says-he-is-removing-fed-governor-lisa-cook-5e2ec2dd?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no president has ever tried</a> to remove a Fed governor in this manner, and it’s unclear if the attempt would survive legal challenges. But markets are reacting nonetheless. The dollar is selling off, gold is rising, and the Treasury yield curve is steepening (though SO FAR the moves are modest). It’s earnings week for one of the biggest stocks on the planet – Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>). The semiconductor company and tech sector bellwether will report Q2 results after the close Wednesday. Heading into the number, options markets <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-set-260-billion-price-100108518.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">are pricing in a potential post-earnings move of 6%</a> – which would amount to about $260 billion in added or lost market cap. That’s actually a bit LOWER than 7.7% average over the last 12 quarterly reports. Finally, US rare earth element producer MP Materials Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MP</a>) appears to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rare-earth-prices-hit-two-121206295.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">be pushing back against China</a>. While China dominates the rare earth industry, MP still helped fuel just under 10% of that country’s oxide production by shipping it neodymium and praseodymium. Now, it isn’t shipping those raw materials – driving the Chinese price of so-called NdPr oxide to the highest since March 2023. The Pentagon <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-intel-chipmakers-sovereign-wealth-baca080d?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recently agreed to pay $400 million</a> for a 15% stake in MP. Is shares are up 363% year-to-date. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64342/market-minute-8-26-25-trump-escalates-fed-fight/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-22-25- All Eyes on Powell as Rate Debate Percolates 8/22/2025 2:15:00 PM Equities are modestly higher after spending the week selling off. Crude oil is flat along with Treasuries and the dollar. Gold and silver are down a bit, while Bitcoin is marking time around $112,000. Stocks have been sliding this week, with the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) notching its fifth consecutive decline on Thursday. While that hasn’t happened since January, the damage has been modest overall – with the benchmark index only trading 1.5% off its all-time high. Investors have been rotating out of previous winners and into previous laggards…while hesitating to make big bets ahead of <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/powell-set-for-final-jackson-hole-speech-as-policy-politics-raise-questions-that-will-outlast-his-tenure-174606990.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">today’s speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jay Powell</a>. Powell’s comments at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming confab could provide important guidance about what the Fed will do at its three remaining policy meetings in 2025. Those will be held Sept. 16-17, Oct. 28-29, and Dec. 9-10. Other Fed speakers have already weighed in from Wyoming, with their comments indicating the Fed remains split on whether to cut in September or not. TLT, IEF, SHY (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64333.png" alt="chart" width="553" height="370" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Through late August, long-term Treasury bonds have underperformed shorter-term Treasury notes. The iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=shy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SHY</a>) has generated a total return of 3.1%, while the iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ief" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IEF</a>) has returned 5.3%. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tlt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TLT</a>) is up just 1.4%. Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) is reportedly <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-asks-suppliers-halt-h20-005428505.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dialing back production</a> of its less-advanced H20 chip. The culprit: Slumping demand in China, where the government is urging buyers to use domestically produced alternatives from Huawei Technologies Co. and Cambricon Technologies Corp. It’s all part of the ongoing US-China tensions, which involve disagreements on trade, tariffs, government surveillance, and US dominance in the tech industry. Finally, two Canadian energy powerhouses could soon be tying the knot, with oil and gas producer Cenovus Energy Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cve" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CVE</a>) offering $5.7 billion to buy MEG Energy Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=megef" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MEGEF</a>). MEG had previously rejected a separate offer in June, but this one has been approved by MEG’s board. The <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/cenovus-energy-acquire-meg-energy-100933631.htmlhttps:/finance.yahoo.com/news/cenovus-energy-acquire-meg-energy-100933631.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cash-and-stock deal</a> would create one of the largest petroleum producers in Alberta’s oil sands region, with combined output of around 720,000 barrels per day. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64333/market-minute-8-22-25-all-eyes-on-powell-as-rate-debate-percolates/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-20-25- Tech Sold, Laggards Bought in Vicious Rotation 8/20/2025 2:15:00 PM The averages are flatlining today after a very interesting trading day on Tuesday. Gold is popping along with crude oil, while Treasuries and the dollar are treading water. I’m calling it the “<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64323/chart-of-the-day-8-20-25-traders-move-out-of-palantir-intopampers/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Out of Palantir, Into Pampers</a>” stock market rotation. We saw a vicious move yesterday, with investors selling “Big Tech” and Artificial Intelligence (AI) leaders like Palantir Technologies Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pltr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PLTR</a>) and buying names like Pampers-manufacturer Procter & Gamble Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PG</a>) that had previously lagged. In fact, we’ve seen a more-modest rotational trend on-and-off for the last couple of weeks. Since Aug. 1, for instance, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=iwm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IWM</a>) has gained 5.2% -- topping the 2.7% gain for the Invesco QQQ Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=qqq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">QQQ</a>). Sector ETFs that lagged through most of 2025, including the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=xlp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XLP</a>) and Health Care Select Sector SPDR (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=xlv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">XLV</a>), have also outperformed tech. They gained 3.2% and 4.2% respectively. IWM, QQQ, XLV, XLP (Aug. 1–20 % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64324.png" alt="chart" width="572" height="318" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> A flood of retail sector earnings is continuing to wash over Wall Street. Target Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tgt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TGT</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-beat-low-earnings-expectations-as-shares-plunge-103016404.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shares fell in early trading</a> after the general merchandise retailer reported a 1.9% drop in comparable store sales from a year ago. Margins also dipped, even as bottom-line profit slightly beat lowered forecasts. On the flip side, shares of the home improvement giant Lowe’s Cos. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=low" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LOW</a>) gained after it reported a 1.1% rise in same-store sales. Adjusted earnings per share beat analyst estimates by 9 cents, and the company said it <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/lowes-boosts-full-year-outlook-shrugging-off-slow-housing-market-c3906300?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">would buy Foundation Building Materials</a> for $8.8 billion. Acquring the privately held housing products distributor will bolster Lowe’s sales to professional customers and contractors. Finally, another data center mega-project <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jpmorgan-mufg-near-22-billion-110706828.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appears to be coming together</a> in Texas. JPMorgan Chase & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=jpm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JPM</a>) and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=mufg" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MUFG</a>) are reportedly underwriting a $22 billion loan to finance construction of the Vantage Data Centers campus. Low electricity costs in Texas are luring data center builders, whose services are in high demand because of the AI boom. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64324/market-minute-8-20-25-tech-sold-laggards-bought-in-vicious-rotation/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-19-25- Will Advance Broaden, Pushing Markets to New Highs 8/19/2025 2:15:00 PM After a flattish day for stocks yesterday, we’re seeing a flattish start to trading today. Gold and silver are up a bit, while crude oil is pulling back along with the dollar. Treasuries are marking time. Stocks are holding near record highs. But to get a healthier market advance from here,  it will require other sectors and stocks outside of “Big Tech” to participate. The good news is, we’re seeing that kind of market action. Bespoke Investment Group noted that over three days last week, the worst-performing 10% of S&P 1,500 so far in 2025 jumped 6.7%. The <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-sees-stock-market-rotation-charting-healthiest-path-to-new-highs-080018479.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">best performers rose just 1%</a>. Additionally, the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=iwm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IWM</a>) is slightly outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) over the last 1-month and 3-month periods. IWM Vs. SPY (3-Mo. % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64318.png" alt="chart" width="537" height="299" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Following rumors that the US government could take a stake in the firm, Intel Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=intc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INTC</a>) instead got a $2 billion lifeline from SoftBank Group Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=sftby" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SFTBY</a>). The equity investment will make Japan’s SoftBank one of INTC’s top 10 shareholders, and help <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/softbank-invest-2-billion-intel-231948283.html">fund strategic investments</a> in its contract chip manufacturing operations. Turns out the Trump Administration’s steel and aluminum tariffs won’t just impact…steel and aluminum. New guidance from the Customs and Border Protection agency extended the tariffs to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-19/trump-widens-metal-tariffs-to-target-baby-gear-motorcycles?srnd=homepage-americas">hundreds of consumer products</a> that contain those metals, including everything from auto parts and motorcycles to tableware and baby booster seats. Finally, European, US, and Ukrainian negotiators are now <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/trump-plans-to-get-putin-and-zelensky-talking-thats-not-even-the-hard-part-f1e7f326?mod=hp_lead_pos1">working on security arrangements</a> after their latest summit in Washington. President Trump and allied leaders are trying to bolster Ukraine’s military and lay the groundwork for a post-truce peacekeeping force. Direct talks between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky could follow soon, though nothing has been confirmed yet. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64318/market-minute-8-19-25-will-advance-broaden-pushing-markets-to-new-highs/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-18-25- Washington War Talks Take Center Stage 8/18/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are mostly flat to start the week. Gold, silver, and crude oil are climbing modestly along with Treasuries. The dollar is up a bit, too, while most major cryptocurrencies are down a couple of percentage points. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/zelensky-heads-back-to-washington-under-pressure-from-putin-1a33fe01?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will meet with President Trump</a> for war talks in Washington today. He’ll be accompanied by leaders from several European countries, with all parties focused on how to bring the Russia-Ukraine conflict to an end. But Zelensky reportedly isn’t happy with the territory exchange that Russian President Vladimir Putin is proposing. Many outside observers also say it would make Ukraine vulnerable to a future Russian invasion. Overall, defense stocks have been strong performers on both sides of the Atlantic this year. The iShares US Aerospace & Defense ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ita" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ITA</a>) has risen more than 34% year-to-date, while the Select STOXX Europe Aerospace & Defense ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=euad" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EUAD</a>) has surged around 76%. Despite the recent peace talks, gold (a traditional “safe haven” asset) is also still holding most of its YTD gains. The SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) was up 27% through Friday. ITA, EUAD, GLD (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64315.png" alt="chart" width="562" height="313" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> The second quarter earnings season is wrapping up – and the results look pretty good! Profits at S&P 500 companies <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-kostin-says-p-500-100547765.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rose more than 11%</a> year-over-year in aggregate, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=GS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GS</a>). Analysts expected a gain of just 4% heading into the reporting period. More companies beat estimates than in any quarter since Q3 2021. Finally, the Federal Reserve will hold its annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming this week. That means Fed Chairman Jay Powell has a perfect opportunity on Friday to “frame” the interest rate debate. But as <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-18/powell-has-reason-to-hedge-jackson-hole-signal-as-data-zigzags?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">this Bloomberg story notes</a>, the inflation picture is cloudier now thanks to the latest wholesale pricing data. Powell speaks on Friday – and Wall Street will be anxiously awaiting his comments. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64315/market-minute-8-18-25-washington-war-talks-take-center-stage/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-15-25- UNH Gets Buffett Boost, AMAT Falls Flat 8/15/2025 2:20:00 PM Stocks are mixed amid a mish-mash of earnings-related news. Gold and silver are mixed as well, while crude oil is modestly lower. The dollar is selling off again. Beleaguered shareholders at UnitedHealth Group (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=unh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UNH</a>) are finally catching a break thanks to the Warren Buffett/Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=brk.a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BRK.A</a>) effect. Berkshire just <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/unitedhealth-group-shares-climb-buffetts-114652812.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported a new five million-share stake</a> in UNH worth about $1.57 billion, news that caused UNH to surge more than 10%. The giant health insurer has been under fire due to federal criminal and civil investigations, rising medical costs, and slumping profit prospects. On the flip side, Applied Materials Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMAT</a>) shares are plunging more than 10% after the chipmaking equipment giant warned that <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/applied-materials-tumbles-china-woes-103649551.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">sales and earnings wouldn’t meet targets</a>. AMAT expects $6.7 billion in revenue and $2.11 in earnings per share in the fiscal fourth quarter; analysts expected $7.3 billion and $2.38, respectively. The company cited reduced Chinese demand and delays in customer orders fueled by tariffs and economic uncertainty. UNH, AMAT (24-Hr. % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64309.png" alt="chart" width="556" height="225" /> Source: Yahoo Finance Speaking of China, its economy is slowing sharply. July reports showed fixed-income investment <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-15/chinese-economy-s-worst-month-of-2025-puts-stimulus-back-in-play?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropping the most in any month since 2020</a>, when Covid hammered the Chinese economy. Industrial activity came in at an eight-month low, while retail sales cooled. The government hasn’t responded with fresh waves of stimulus money…yet. But that has been the card it’s played in the past. Finally, Initial Public Offering (IPO) activity continues to ramp up – even in what is usually a seasonally slow period for share sales. Markets have absorbed 12 IPOs of at least $50 million so far this month. Those deals have <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ipo-market-surges-in-august-with-companies-striking-while-the-iron-is-hot-090028325.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised a collective $2.9 billion</a>. The long-term average for August? Nine IPOs and $1.5 billion raised, according to Renaissance Capital. The latest to hit the market were crypto exchange operator Bullish (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=blsh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BLSH</a>) and Miami International Holdings Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=miax" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MIAX</a>), operator of the MIAX exchanges for options, futures, and derivatives trading. Shares of both firms rose sharply from their IPO prices. Other high-profile offerings from Circle Internet Group (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=crcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CRCL</a>) and Figma Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fig" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FIG</a>) have helped whip up investor sentiment for IPOs following a long drought for new offerings. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64309/market-minute-8-15-25-unh-gets-buffett-boost-amat-falls-flat/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-13-25- Stocks at Highs Amid Full-Court Fed Press 8/13/2025 2:15:00 PM The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) hit fresh highs yesterday, and stocks are adding to their gains this morning. Gold and silver are bouncing along with Treasuries, while the dollar is weakening. Bitcoin is trading back above $120,000. Sure, we know the Federal Reserve is increasingly likely to cut interest rates at the September meeting. But could it lower them by…50 basis points? More traders are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-12/bets-on-outsize-fed-cut-gain-steam-as-inflation-data-backs-doves?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">placing bets on that outcome</a>, according to Bloomberg, amid a full-court press on the Fed from the Trump Administration. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested in a Fox Business interview yesterday that a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-12/bessent-hints-fed-should-be-open-to-half-point-interest-rate-cut" target="_blank" rel="noopener">move of that magnitude</a> might be justified. Then this morning on Bloomberg, he argued that most economic models suggested rates <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-13/bessent-says-rates-should-likely-be-150-175-basis-points-lower?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">should be 150-175 bps lower</a> than they are now (a range of 4.25% - 4.5%). For more on the Fed outlook, see my <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64299/chart-of-the-day-8-13-25-is-it-1-2-3-cuts-ahead-at-the-fed/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chart of the Day</a> article. GOOGL, FLYY, ULCC (3-Mo. % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64300.png" alt="chart" width="578" height="321" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> In other news, a US District Judge ruled last year that Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=googl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) illegally monopolized the search market. Now, with that judge poised to rule on remedies soon, at least one company is openly bidding for the Google Chrome browser business. The Artificial Intelligence (AI) firm Perplexity <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/perplexity-ai-google-chrome-offer-5ddb7a22?mod=trending_now_news_1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">offered to pay $34.5 billion</a> for Chrome, well above its estimated $18 billion value. Google would prefer to modify certain business arrangements instead of cut bait with Chrome. Plus, if it appeals the judge’s ultimate ruling, that could delay any changes from taking effect for even longer. The Justice Department originally sued Alphabet in 2020. Could Spirit Aviation Holdings Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=flyy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FLYY</a>) be running out of financial…runway? The firm filed for bankruptcy, restructured, then emerged in its current form back in March. But despite making changes to its frequent flier program, signing new partnerships, and taking other steps, revenue has disappointed. As a result, Spirit warned yesterday that there was “substantial doubt as to the Company’s ability to continue as a going concern” over the next year. That <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/spirit-airlines-stock-craters-on-warning-it-could-go-out-of-business-163505742.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">caused its shares to plummet</a> more than 40%. Other airline stocks rallied, however, on the expectation that Spirit’s demise (if it happened) would boost pricing power for the rest of the industry. One example: Frontier Group Holdings Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ulcc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ULCC</a>) surged more than 29%. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64300/market-minute-8-13-25-stocks-at-highs-amid-full-court-fed-press/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-11-25- Nvidia, AMD Govt. "Rev Share" in Focus 8/11/2025 2:15:00 PM After a solid end to last week, stocks are gaining a bit more ground in early trading today. Crude oil is up with the dollar, while gold and silver are lower and Treasuries are flattish. The Trump Administration continues to find new and novel ways to extract revenue in exchange for trade concessions. The latest: Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMD</a>) will do a “revenue share” deal with the US government, giving it 15 cents of every dollar in sales they get selling H20 and MI308 chips to Chinese customers. That kind of ultra-targeted export levy <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-10/nvidia-amd-to-pay-15-of-china-chip-sale-income-to-us-ft-says?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is highly unusual</a>, but it follows several other targeted tariffs on imports of various semiconductors, metals, and other products. While neither of those chips are the most advanced ones NVDA and AMD sell, they can still be used to help with Artificial Intelligence (AI) model training and other tasks. NVDA and AMD shares were slightly lower on the news. NVDA, AMD, LIT, PSKY (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64291.png" alt="chart" width="544" height="303" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Global lithium stocks are rallying thanks to an “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-13/xi-s-price-war-campaign-creates-a-buzz-in-china-s-stock-market" target="_blank" rel="noopener">anti-involution</a>” push in China. In short, the Chinese government is trying to eliminate production overcapacity and deflation in materials like lithium, sectors like steel, and industries like e-commerce and Electric Vehicles (EVs). As part of that trend, the battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., or CATL, said it would <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-11/lithium-stocks-rise-after-catl-suspends-operations-at-china-mine?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shut down its massive Jianxiawo lithium mine</a> for at least three months. That mine accounts for about 6% of worldwide lithium output. Others in the area account for another 5% of output. If more close, it will accelerate the elimination of a lithium supply glut and boost returns for Western mine operators. Chinese lithium futures surged by the daily limit of 8% Monday, while the Global X Lithium & Battery Tech ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LIT</a>) was recently trading up by about 6%. Fresh off the closure of an $8 billion merger and rebranding as Paramount Skydance Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=psky" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PSKY</a>), the media conglomerate said it would <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/11/paramount-buys-ufc-rights-skydance-merger.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy the rights to UFC live fighting events</a> for $7.7 billion. The seven-year deal kicks in for 2026 when a current pay-per-view deal between UFC and ESPN expires. Subscribers to Paramount+ will then be able to watch 13 marquee events plus 30 “Fight Nights” at no additional charge. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64291/market-minute-8-11-25-nvidia-amd-govt-rev-share-in-focus/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-8-25- Gold Flirts with Fresh Highs Amid Tariff Turmoil 8/8/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are recouping some of yesterday’s modest declines in early trading. But gold is where the action is. The yellow metal is flirting with fresh all-time highs, while silver is rising alongside. Treasuries and the dollar are modestly lower, while crude oil is up a bit. First it was copper that got whipsawed by tariffs. Now, gold is seeing its own policy-related volatility. In response to recent industry inquiries, the US Customs and Border Protection department clarified that imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars are subject to tariffs. Bars of that weight are the deliverables that back US-traded gold futures on the Comex, even as larger 400-ounce bars are the benchmark in London. Gold Futures (5-Day Chart) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64284.png" alt="chart" width="551" height="213" /> Result: US prices <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-08-08-2025?mod=hp_lead_pos3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jumped even further overnight</a> to a record high above $3,500, before pulling back this morning. Plus, the spread between US pricing and London pricing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/us-hits-gold-bars-with-tariffs-in-blow-to-switzerland-ft-report?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">blew out</a> to more than $100 an ounce. It’s important to note that gold has been rising for many other reasons, but this just adds to the interest…and volatility…in metals. In other news, the race to build data centers to handle Artificial Intelligence (AI) computing needs is intensifying. Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) just teamed up with Pimco and Blue Owl Capital Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=obdc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">OBDC</a>) to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-08/meta-picks-pimco-blue-owl-for-29-billion-data-center-financing" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raise $29 billion</a> to build out centers in Louisiana. Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) is teaming up with financial giants like BlackRock Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=blk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BLK</a>) to raise as much as $100 billion to fund AI infrastructure spending. Finally, Firefly Aerospace Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FLY</a>) became the latest sizzling Initial Public Offering (IPO) to hit the markets yesterday. It sold 19.3 million shares at $45, raising $868 million. Then the stock surged to $60.35 at Thursday’s close. FLY is raising money to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/firefly-stock-loses-altitude-after-sizzling-stock-market-debut-091428468.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fund private space exploration projects</a>, including the Blue Ghost moon lander and Eclipse reusable rocket. It freely admits it will lose money on its operations for the foreseeable future. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64284/market-minute-8-8-25-gold-flirts-with-fresh-highs-amid-tariff-turmoil/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-5-25- Markets Waffle, While AI Darling Palantir Delivers 8/5/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are waffling today after equities caught a big bump on Monday. Gold and silver are mixed, while crude oil is lower. The dollar is modestly higher along with interest rates. Palantir Technologies Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pltr" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PLTR</a>) has been the poster child of the Artificial Intelligence (AI) boom, with its shares surging 112% year-to-date and 549% over the past 12 months <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-shares-jump-soaring-ai-093406950.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">amid booming demand</a> for its AI-driven data-analytics software and services. Late yesterday, it reported Q2 earnings that blew away estimates, with profit up 33% to $327 million. Quarterly revenue topped $1 billion for the first time ever. PLTR also <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/palantir-reports-sales-48-cites-223351576.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised its full-year sales estimate</a> to around $4.15 billion.  PLTR, CAT, PFE (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64269.png" alt="chart" width="531" height="355" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Three employees of contract chipmaking giant Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSM</a>) were arrested on suspicion of stealing company trade secrets. Taiwanese police detained the unnamed suspects after the firm reportedly discovered employees trying to dig into its next-generation 2-nanometer chips. Several of the world’s biggest technology companies, from Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) to Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>), use TSM to manufacture at least some of their semiconductors. Finally, among other brand-name companies reporting earnings, Caterpillar Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CAT</a>) missed estimates amid <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-05/caterpillar-misses-estimates-as-sales-for-machinery-slips?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rising tariff-related costs</a> and weak construction-related sales. The heavy equipment manufacturer added that it faces tariff expenses of up to $1.5 billion in the current year. Meanwhile, drugmaker Pfizer Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pfe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PFE</a>) beat estimates by a wide margin. It also raised its adjusted earnings-per-share forecast range for 2025 to $2.90 to $3.10. PFE added that various initiatives would cut costs by $7.2 billion through year-end 2027. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64269/market-minute-8-5-25-markets-waffle-while-ai-darling-palantir-delivers/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-4-25- Stocks Stabilize on Fed Cut Hopes 8/4/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are looking to find their footing after a late-week beat down on disappointing tariff and jobs data. Equities are modestly higher along with gold and silver, while crude oil is down along with the dollar. Treasuries are up a bit. One reason markets are stabilizing is anticipation of cheaper money. One of the Federal Reserve’s governors, Adriana Kugler, resigned on Friday rather than serve until her term expired in January. That opens the door for President Trump to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-04/trump-to-announce-fed-jobs-data-replacements-in-coming-days?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appoint someone more inclined to cut interest rates</a>, though it’ll take some time for the process to play out. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64266.png" alt="chart" width="490" height="259" /> Source: CME FedWatch Following Friday’s lousy jobs data, the likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut in September shot up. Rate futures markets are now pricing in about an 83% chance of a cut, versus 63% a week ago, according to CME FedWatch. The probabilities of one or more cuts in October and/or December have climbed, too. Boeing Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BA</a>) is facing more labor strife, this time at its defense aircraft division. Employees at its St. Louis-area factories make products like the F-15 fighter jet, and around 3,200 walked off the job early today after rejecting a retirement and wage hike deal. It’s the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/boeing-defense-union-poised-first-182311385.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">first strike for that union</a> since 1996. Lastly, another digital assets firm – the crypto exchange Bullish – <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-firm-bullish-aims-raise-115017156.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is looking to go public</a>. The firm said it wanted to sell 20.3 million shares in an Initial Public Offering (IPO) priced between $28 and $31. The $629 million planned offering follows other successful deals in recent weeks, including last week’s blockbuster Figma Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fig" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FIG</a>) IPO. Miami International Holdings, which operates the MIAX options, equities, and futures exchanges, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warburg-pincus-backed-miami-international-111517254.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">also just filed for a $315 million IPO</a>. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64266/market-minute-8-4-25-stocks-stabilize-on-fed-cut-hopes/?scode=046929 Market Minute 8-1-25- Stocks Slide on Tariff, Job Woes 8/1/2025 2:20:00 PM Stocks are sliding around the world as tariffs strike with full force – and as the latest jobs figures left a lot to be desired. Treasuries are rallying, the dollar is dropping, and gold and silver are climbing. The Trump Administration's tariffs are hitting with full force – and markets are reeling in response. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/jobs-report-today-stock-market-08-01-2025/card/trump-tariffs-where-do-rates-on-major-trading-partners-stand-now--kho0DSgTZ79odXWZ7FM1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Essentially every US trading partner</a> will pay more to send goods to the US starting one week from today. The average tariff rate on US imports will <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-31/asian-stocks-to-slip-as-tariff-deadline-sours-mood-markets-wrap" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rise to 15.2% from 13.3% earlier this year</a>, according to Bloomberg Economics. Before Trump in 2024, the rate was just 2.3%. SPY, VEU, EWC, EWW, EWL, FXI (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64260.png" alt="chart" width="576" height="320" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Countries like Switzerland (39%) and Canada (35% for some exports to the US) are faring even worse under the new tariff regime. Meanwhile, Mexico <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-01/trump-s-tariff-blitz-unleashes-delayed-shock-to-global-economy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">was given a 90-day reprieve</a> for more talks. Recent US-China negotiations in Sweden could result in another extension of the temporary truce there, but Trump hasn’t signed off on that yet. The chart here shows how various ETFs are performing, including the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>), the Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=veu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VEU</a>), and funds that track stock markets in Canada, Mexico, Switzerland, and China. As for the July jobs report? Not great. Economists thought the economy created 110,000 jobs last month. The actual number was just 73,000. Worse, the last two readings were revised down by a whopping 258,000! The unemployment rate climbed to 4.2% from 4.1%, while labor force participation ticked down. Even though wage growth held at 0.3%, the weak data overall increases the chance of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut at next month’s meeting. Lastly, Figma Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fig" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FIG</a>) had one heck of a stock market debut yesterday. The design software company raised $1.2 billion in an Initial Public Offering of 36.94 million shares at $33. Then when the stock finally opened for trading, it <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/figma-stock-soars-250-in-first-day-of-trading-valuing-company-north-of-45-billion-132215621.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">soared more than 250%</a>! Shares were recently even higher, trading around $138. The company’s valuation is now hovering around $68 billion – more than triple the $20 billion that Adobe Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=adbe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ADBE</a>) once tried to pay for the company (before <a href="https://www.forbes.com/sites/iainmartin/2025/07/31/thwarted-by-regulators-dylan-field-vindicated-by-wall-street-design-startup-figmas-ceo-is-now-a-billionaire/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">that takeover deal unraveled</a> in January 2024). https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64260/market-minute-8-1-25-stocks-slide-on-tariff-job-woes/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-30-25- As Fed Questions Swirl, Riskier Bonds Shine 7/30/2025 2:15:00 PM Investors are mostly sitting on their hands as they await key news out of Washington. Equities are flat along with crude oil and Bitcoin. Gold is rising, as is the dollar. It’s “Fed Day” today, with the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest interest rate decision this afternoon. Policymakers will almost certainly NOT cut rates. But we COULD see two Fed governors (Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman) cast dissenting votes in favor of cuts. That hasn’t happened in 32 years! Both were appointed by President Trump and <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rates-dissent-powell-trump-83f4f49e?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">both have indicated</a> they’re inclined to resume rate cuts. Chairman Jay Powell hasn’t signaled a similar willingness to move despite intense pressure from Trump and his allies in Washington. Heading into the conclusion of this meeting, however, rate futures markets are pricing in a 65% chance the Fed WILL cut by a quarter of a percentage point at its September gathering. TLT, JNK, LQD (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64251.png" alt="chart" width="530" height="295" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, in the fixed-income space, riskier bonds have been outperforming US Treasuries. While the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tlt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TLT</a>) has delivered a total return of 2.1% year-to-date, the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lqd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LQD</a>) has returned about 4.8%. The higher-risk SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=jnk" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JNK</a>) is up about 5%. In other news, private fund-raisings at eye-popping valuations continue in the technology arena. The fintech company Ramp, which offers corporate credit cards and payment services, just scooped up $500 million <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fintech-ramp-secures-22-5-115437760.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">at a $22.5 billion valuation</a>. Meanwhile, the Artificial Intelligence (AI) darling Anthropic is currently trying to raise up to $5 billion in fresh capital. Its new rumored valuation? Anywhere from <a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/29/anthropic-in-talks-to-raise-fresh-capital-at-170-billion-valuation.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$150 billion to $170 billion</a>! Speaking of the tech sector, more “Mag 7” names will be reporting earnings soon. Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) is on tap today along with Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>), with Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) and Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>) set to follow Thursday. Overall, earnings from the mega-cap group are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/big-tech-earnings-coming-spotlight-140000575.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">expected to rise 14% from a year ago</a> while sales are forecast to climb 11.9%. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64251/market-minute-7-30-25-as-fed-questions-swirl-riskier-bonds-shine/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-29-25- Investors Eye $85B Mega-Deal, UNH Warning 7/29/2025 2:15:00 PM Investors are cautiously bidding up equities in the early going amid a flood of M&A and earnings-related news. Crude oil, gold, and silver are mostly flat, while the dollar and Treasuries are rallying. Now, let’s talk about the mega-deal in the transportation sector. Union Pacific Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=unp" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UNP</a>) is buying Norfolk Southern Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nsc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NSC</a>) for $85 billion, the <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/union-pacific-to-acquire-norfolk-southern-in-85-billion-deal?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">biggest railroad deal on record</a>. UNP has a sizable presence in the western US, while NSC has significant operations in the eastern part of the country. They will now control more than 50,000 miles of railroad track. UNP, NSC, NVO, LLY, UNH (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64245.png" alt="chart" width="578" height="322" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Neither stock moved much on the news because reports have been circulating for several days that a deal was imminent. Regulators will scrutinize the deal given the market dominance the combined firm will have. But investors expect approval will be easier to get in the Trump Administration than it would’ve been with Biden in office. Novo Nordisk AS (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVO</a>) warned that sales and earnings growth <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/obesity-drugmaker-novo-nordisk-cuts-110732401.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">would miss targets</a>, sending its shares sharply lower. In the obesity drug battle, the Wegovy and Ozempic maker is struggling to compete with Eli Lilly & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LLY</a>). NVO was already down 18.4% year-to-date before today, while LLY was up 5%. Meanwhile, challenges <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-29/unitedhealth-issues-fresh-guidance-below-wall-street-estimates?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">continue to mount</a> at the health insurance giant UnitedHealth Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=unh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UNH</a>). Already facing higher-than-expected medical expenses, the firm warned adjusted profit would now come in around $16 per share in 2025. Analysts expected $20.40. Government programs like Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act markets are changing, putting pressure on industry profits. UNH shares were down 43.5% YTD as of yesterday. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64245/market-minute-7-29-25-investors-eye-$85b-mega-deal-unh-warning/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-28-25- Markets Cheer EU, China Deal Progress 7/28/2025 2:15:00 PM The equity markets are starting the week off with a positive tone thanks to trade deal progress over the weekend. Gold and silver are a bit lower, while crude oil is higher. The dollar is popping, but Treasuries are taking on water. The US and European Union reached a trade deal in Scotland over the weekend, one that will result in EU exporters paying 15% tariffs (rather than up to 50%) on most products. Tariffs on many US exports to Europe will drop to zero. The EU is the US’ biggest trading partner, with just over 20% – or about $303 billion – of total imports coming from the bloc in the first five months of 2025. Some European countries complained the deal was too generous to the US. But markets on both sides of the Atlantic rallied because <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-28/eu-welcomes-pause-in-us-trade-fight-while-seeking-better-terms?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">worst-case outcomes were averted</a>. Meanwhile, negotiators from the US and China are <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cm2197pmlrro" target="_blank" rel="noopener">meeting in Stockholm this week</a>. The gathering will likely result in another 90-day pause on new cross-border tariffs, one designed to give both sides more time to talk. The previous extension runs through Aug. 12. The iShares Europe ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=iev" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IEV</a>) and iShares China Large-Cap ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fxi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FXI</a>) are handily outperforming the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) in 2025, as you can see in this chart.   SPY, IEV, FXI (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64242.png" alt="chart" width="1312" height="743" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> The Federal Reserve will meet this week to discuss interest rates, with a decision to be announced Wednesday afternoon. Despite <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-looms-large-over-a-fed-likely-to-again-defy-his-call-for-cuts-080033242.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">heavy pressure from the White House</a>, Chairman Jay Powell & Co. will almost certainly NOT cut rates this week. But Powell could hint that cuts are coming soon. The final three Fed meetings of 2025 conclude on Sept. 17, Oct. 29, and Dec. 10. Finally, Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) and Samsung Electronics Co. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/samsung-signs-16-5-billion-chip-supply-contract-with-tesla-a0d61216?mod=hp_lead_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">just inked a $16.5 billion</a>, multi-year semiconductor production deal. Samsung will supply Tesla’s next-generation AI6 chip from a new factory in Texas, a major step in Samsung’s quest to catch up to industry leader Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSM</a>). Samsung shares jumped almost 7% on the news. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64242/market-minute-7-28-25-markets-cheer-eu-china-deal-progress/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-25-25- Market Bubble Or Just Gains on Great Earnings 7/25/2025 2:15:00 PM The equity markets are inching higher today after the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hit new record highs yesterday. Gold and silver are pulling back again, while crude oil is marginally higher along with the dollar. Bank of America Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bac" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BAC</a>) strategists are out there <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-25/bofa-s-hartnett-renews-warnings-around-bubble-risks-for-stocks?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warning of “bubble risk” in the stock market</a>…again. The firm’s team led by Michael Hartnett said we have “bigger retail, bigger liquidity, bigger volatility, bigger bubble” conditions in equities. Yet underlying earnings for the second quarter are looking pretty good. Roughly 83% of the S&P 500 companies that have already reported for Q2 beat estimates, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. That’s <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-500-humming-profit-engine-093000868.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the highest beat rate</a> since Q2 2021. Profits are up about 4.5% year-over-year so far, exceeding the 2.8% growth forecast BI had heading into earnings season. QQQ, SPY, DIA (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64236.png" alt="chart" width="563" height="313" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> President Trump’s pressure campaign on the Federal Reserve intensified yesterday, with Trump touring the Fed’s under-construction headquarters with Chairman Jay Powell. The made-for-television excursion was his latest attempt to get Powell to cut interest rates, this time by emphasizing cost overruns on the construction project as an example of Fed mismanagement. Still, markets expect virtually no chance of a cut in the short-term federal funds rate at the Fed meeting that concludes next Wednesday. Rate futures are signaling a 60% chance of a cut in September, down from 68% a month ago. Finally, how intense is “<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64226/market-minute-7-23-25-stocks-rip-on-japan-deal/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meme Stock Mania 2.0</a>” getting? Yesterday, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-24/this-five-cent-meme-stock-just-made-up-15-of-us-trading-volume?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">about 15% of ALL trading volume</a> on US exchanges came from one stock. Its name is Healthcare Triangle Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=hcti" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HCTI</a>), it trades for around $0.05, and it has a market capitalization of just $22.2 million. The stock soared 115% on no apparent news – with volume of more than 3 billion shares. Eat your heart out AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMC</a>)! https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64236/market-minute-7-25-25-market-bubble-or-just-gains-on-great-earnings/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-23-25- Stocks Rip on Japan Deal 7/23/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are ripping again after a strong rally in the past month. Gold and silver are mixed, crude oil is lower, and Treasuries and the dollar are flattish. The US and Japan just managed to close a trade deal after weeks of negotiating. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-22/trump-says-japan-deal-reached-with-tariff-rate-set-at-15?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japan will pay 15% tariffs</a> moving forward, rather than 25%. That rate will further apply to other products that were previously targeted with a higher, export-specific levy. Japan will also set up a $550 billion fund for investments in the US and ease auto import restrictions that kept US carmakers from competing as effectively in the Japanese market. Separately, the US <a href="https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-cut-tariffs-non-tariff-barriers-us-trade-deal-2025-07-22/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced deals with Indonesia and the Philippines</a>. Those would set tariff rates at 19%, while also easing restrictions on imports of US agricultural products and other goods. All told, the deals reinforced Wall Street’s optimism that worst-case scenarios on trade won’t play out – a key reason stocks have risen to record highs. ETFs that track stocks in Indonesia and the Philippines have underperformed the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>), while the iShares MSCI Japan ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ewj" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EWJ</a>) has slightly outperformed. EWJ, EIDO, EPHE, SPY (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64226.png" alt="chart" width="546" height="304" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Will massive investments in Artificial Intelligence (AI) pay off? That’s what <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-to-report-q2-earnings-as-wall-street-looks-for-ai-revenue-gains-172616519.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investors are waiting to see</a> when Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=googl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) reports earnings after the bell today. Analysts expect the Google parent to earn $2.17 per share after adjustments, up almost 12% year-over-year. The firm is spending a whopping $75 billion on AI investments to power things like its Gemini AI models. Finally, “<a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/highly-shorted-krispy-kreme-gopro-101134199.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Meme Stock Mania</a>” is back in a big way. Yesterday it was shares of beaten-down retailer Kohl’s Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=kss" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KSS</a>) that rocketed 37% on aggressive trading by retail investors. Today, Krispy Kreme Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dnut" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DNUT</a>) and GoPro Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gpro" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GPRO</a>) are rising sharply in early trading. Other heavily shorted stocks like Beyond Meat Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bynd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BYND</a>) and 1-800-Flowers.com (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=flws" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FLWS</a>) are climbing, too. The action is reminiscent of what happened during the Covid-19 pandemic. Back then, traders zeroed in on struggling stocks in an effort to squeeze short-sellers and drive their share prices through the roof. The trend eventually flamed out as markets and the economy got back to normal. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64226/market-minute-7-23-25-stocks-rip-on-japan-deal/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-22-25- Q2 Earnings Flood in as Tariff Deadline Looms 7/22/2025 2:30:00 PM Stocks are relatively quiet in early trading after a late-day fade yesterday. Crude oil is pulling back, while the dollar is flattish. Treasuries and precious metals are rising. Bitcoin was trading back above $119,000 recently. Earnings season is in full swing, with several big-name companies reporting second-quarter profits in the last 24 hours. General Motors Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GM</a>) said <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-22/gm-s-profit-falls-after-trump-tariffs-add-1-1-billion-in-costs?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">profit tanked 35% from a year ago</a> to $1.9 billion, with tariffs slicing $1.1 billion off adjusted earnings. While per-share results managed to top estimates, revenue also slipped 1.8% to $47.1 billion amid pricing softness. GM, KO, RTX, NOC (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64218.png" alt="chart" width="540" height="301" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Coca-Colo Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ko" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KO</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coca-cola-beats-quarterly-revenue-110117590.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">beat Q2 estimates after raising prices</a>, with earnings up 6% year-over-year on a 2.5% revenue increase. Aerospace and defense giant RTX Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=rtx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">RTX</a>) beat quarterly profit estimates, but <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/rtx-cuts-2025-profit-forecast-110704718.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lowered its full-year outlook</a> amid rising input costs. On the flip side, defense contractor Northrop Grumman Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=noc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NOC</a>) beat estimates and <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/northrop-hikes-full-outlook-strong-113516984.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised its annual EPS forecast</a> to a range of $25 to $25.40 amid solid sales growth. Earnings growth is running around 5.6% so far, according to FactSet, but that’s with only 12% of S&P 500 companies having reported through last Friday. Results from three of the “Magnificent Seven” companies helped boost the growth number. Meanwhile, Wall Street is increasingly betting that President Trump will once again back down on trade threats. Fund managers <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-21/fund-giants-put-faith-in-trump-put-to-keep-stock-rally-rolling?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">are boosting equity exposure</a> even with the Aug. 1 deadline for trade agreements to be signed approaching because “people have really bought into this belief that there is a Trump put,” in the words of one Invesco portfolio manager quoted by Bloomberg. This comes even as negotiations with key countries like India and economic blocs like the European Union (EU) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-prospects-for-india-eu-deals-falter-as-trump-pushes-for-higher-tariffs-200619062.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appear bogged down</a>. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64218/market-minute-7-22-25-q2-earnings-flood-in-as-tariff-deadline-looms/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-11-25- Bitcoin Breaks Out, Canada Warned on Tariffs 7/11/2025 2:15:00 PM Bitcoin is leading a charge higher among cryptocurrencies, gaining more than 4% at last check. Gold and silver are rising, too, while equities are broadly lower along with Treasuries. The dollar is up a smidge. Bitcoin is grabbing the spotlight this week, trading to a fresh all-time high yesterday...then following through with a move above $118,000 today. The benchmark cryptocurrency is up more than 26% year-to-date, rallying along with other alternative stores of value like gold and silver. Bitcoin (BTC-USD, 1-Year Chart) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64208.png" alt="chart" width="580" height="224" /> Source: Yahoo Finance Corporate, individual, and institutional buyers are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bitcoin-surges-to-new-highs-above-118000-as-investors-go-risk-on-182648233.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">allocating more money to cryptocurrencies</a> over time. Plus, Congress plans to focus on crypto legislation during its “Crypto Week” that starts July 14. That could help create more certainty about crypto regulation, fueling broader acceptance of digital assets. In trade-related news, Canada became the latest nation to get <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/trump-threatens-35-tariff-on-some-canadian-goods-d1306890?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">threatened with heightened tariffs</a>. President Trump said he’d slap 35% levies on Canadian imports starting Aug. 1. That’s higher than the current 25% rate, though it wouldn’t apply to goods that meet the old US-Mexico-Canada Agreement standards. Trump’s warning cited concerns over Fentanyl trafficking and Canadian dairy import restrictions, among other things. Still, the iShares MSCI Canada ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ewc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">EWC</a>) is up 15.1% in 2025. The global oil markets could end up with a glut of supply, thanks to recent OPEC+ quota hikes and overproduction by Saudi Arabia. That country boosted output by 700,000 barrels per day in June during the Israel-Iran conflict, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-11/saudis-surged-oil-output-far-above-opec-quota-in-june-iea-says?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">producing above its agreed-upon target</a>. Plus, the overall group plans to boost official output by another 548,000 BPD in September. At the same time, global demand could rise at the slowest pace in 16 years (outside of Covid-impacted 2020) in 2025. Crude oil prices are down about 6% year-to-date. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64208/market-minute-7-11-25-bitcoin-breaks-out-canada-warned-on-tariffs/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-9-25- Tariff News Rocks Copper, While Fed Chatter Heats Up 7/9/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks were mixed yesterday, but it’s the metals market that got ROCKED. This morning, equities are modestly higher along with Bitcoin. Most other markets – including Treasuries, the dollar, and crude oil – are flattish. Let’s talk about copper – which I covered in more detail in my <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64190/chart-of-the-day-7-9-25-copper-soars-joining-high-flying-metals-club/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chart of the Day piece here</a>. President Trump suggested in comments to reporters yesterday that 50% tariffs will be implemented on copper imports. That caused US-traded Comex futures to soar the most since they were introduced in 1988. Yet benchmark London Metal Exchange prices didn’t move much. Then they slid modestly overnight. That <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-09/copper-futures-in-london-drop-after-trump-plan-50-import-tariff?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">widened the gap</a> between the benchmarks for US and global prices to an unprecedented 25%. Result: Shippers could send even more copper to US shores to beat the new tariffs. Metal was already flooding in because traders and producers were hoping to front-run levies – and profit from arbitrage opportunities created by price divergences. The United States Copper Index Fund (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cper" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CPER</a>), which tracks futures prices, jumped 8.4% yesterday to an all-time high. United States Copper Index Fund (CPER) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64191.png" alt="chart" width="535" height="322" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Who is in line to take Jay Powell’s place as Chairman of the Federal Reserve? Both Kevin Hassett and Kevin Warsh are <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/trump-fed-chair-hassett-warsh-3373fe8e?mod=hp_lead_pos8" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reportedly jockeying for position</a>, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also in the mix. Hassett is the current director of the National Economic Council and former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers during Trump 1.0. Warsh is a former Fed governor and adviser to ex-President George W. Bush. Trump has made no secret of his desire for Fed rate cuts. He has been lambasting Powell for sitting on his hands at the last few meetings, and any successor would have to carefully navigate the role’s political challenges. Wall Street generally likes having an independent Fed. If the relationship between the executive branch and the Fed gets too cozy, it could cause volatility in stock and bond markets. Finally, pharmaceutical giant Merck & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=MRK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MRK</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/merck-nears-10-billion-deal-050901241.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said it would acquire</a> Verona Pharma Plc (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=VRNA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VRNA</a>) for $10 billion. The purchase is Merck’s biggest since 2023, and it’ll add Verona’s Ohtuvayre treatment for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to Merck’s repertoire. Merck is making various moves ahead of the 2028 expiration of its patent on the Keytruda cancer drug. It was the industry’s best-selling drug in 2024, generating revenue of almost $30 billion. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64191/market-minute-7-9-25-tariff-news-rocks-copper-while-fed-chatter-heats-up/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-8-25- Letters Sent, Deadline Pushed in Tariff Fight 7/8/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks got smacked yesterday thanks to the latest tariff news, though they’re stabilizing in early trading today. Crude oil, gold, and silver are mostly flat along with the dollar. Interest rates are climbing a bit.                 The Trump Administration sent out a flurry of letters yesterday, advising various trade partners that they would face tariffs of anywhere from 25% to 40% because they hadn’t reached comprehensive deals with the US. Among those targeted were <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-07/trump-says-he-ll-levy-25-tariff-on-japan-south-korea-in-august?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">larger trade partners</a> like Japan (25%) and South Korea (25%), plus smaller ones such as Tunisia (25%), South Africa (30%), and Thailand (36%). SPY, HON, AMZN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64184.png" alt="chart" width="533" height="297" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> At the same time, the president <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-tariffs-deadline-august-trade-war-e916eb77" target="_blank" rel="noopener">kicked the deadline can</a> down the road to Aug. 1 from July 9. Wall Street is hoping the extra few weeks will allow more deals to be signed. So far, only a narrow pact with the UK and a yet-to-be-fully-revealed deal with Vietnam have been closed. The US and China also agreed to a temporary truce to allow for more negotiations. In corporate news, Honeywell International Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=hon" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HON</a>) is <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/honeywell-review-alternatives-two-businesses-114357342.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">considering strategic alternatives</a> for its transportation and logistics businesses ahead of a three-way breakup. The conglomerate will ultimately split into companies focused on aerospace, automation, and advanced materials, and it’s looking to pare some operations ahead of the move. HON shares are up 5.9% year-to-date. Finally, it’s “Prime Day” at Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>). Or more accurately, it’s Prime Week. The online retailer’s annual sales event will run today through Friday, and feature discounts on a wide range of products. The gimmick has received less attention and interest over time, but research firm Emarketer still projects Amazon <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/amazon-prime-day-shoppers-advertisers-c6b6c406?mod=hp_lead_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will sell $12.9 billion in product</a> over the four-day span. AMZN has eked out a 1.8% YTD gain. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64184/market-minute-7-8-25-letters-sent-deadline-pushed-in-tariff-fight/?scode=046929 Wall Street Waffles Amid Crunch Time for Trade Talks 7/7/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are waffling after the long holiday weekend. Gold and silver are lower, crude oil and Treasuries are flattish, while the dollar is higher. It’s crunch time for trade and tariff policy. The original July 9 deadline that President Trump had set for countries to reach trade deals with the US is only two days away. Ahead of that, the administration said <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-07-07-2025?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it will fire off letters</a> to multiple countries outlining what tariffs they face if they don’t agree to broader deals. SPY, BKF, USO (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64179.png" alt="chart" width="525" height="351" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> While implementation of those new tariffs might be postponed until Aug. 1, investors are worried about potential economic fallout in the weeks ahead. That concern increased after Trump separately threatened countries who allied themselves with the “BRICS” nations on Sunday. He said he would hit them with an extra 10% tariff if they aligned themselves with the “Anti-American policies of BRICS.” The acronym stands for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. The iShares MSCI BIC ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bkf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BKF</a>), which tracks stocks in some of those markets, is up 13.5% year-to-date, roughly double the 6.7% return of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>). In other news, the OPEC+ nations announced Saturday that they would boost production by 548,000 barrels per day in August. They had already raised production by 411,000 BPD in May, June, and July, and said another 548,000 BPD hike could be announced for September after further consultations. Those moves <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-05/opec-agrees-in-principle-to-speed-up-supply-increases-further" target="_blank" rel="noopener">would completely reverse the supply cuts</a> OPEC originally announced in 2023. Crude oil prices were steady in the wake of the news. But US WTI futures are still down about 6.6% year-to-date, recently trading for $67 a barrel. Lastly, is it time to sell the S&P 500? Bank of America Corp.’s strategist Michael Hartnett said the answer is “Yes” – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-04/s-p-500-is-a-touch-away-from-triggering-sell-signal-bofa-says" target="_blank" rel="noopener">if we hit 6,300</a>. The index closed at 6,279.35 before the Fourth of July holiday. Hartnett added that bubble risks were rising, though he acknowledged that “overbought markets can stay overbought.” https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64179/wall-street-waffles-amid-crunch-time-for-trade-talks/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-2-25- DC Trade, Tax Talks in Focus 7/2/2025 2:15:00 PM After yesterday’s rotational action – with Big Tech sliding and small caps rallying – stocks are fairly quiet in the early going today. Crude oil is rising, while gold and silver are mixed. The dollar is modestly higher along with interest rates at the long end of the curve. The end of President Trump’s 90-day tariff “pause” period is fast approaching. But negotiating progress has been hard to come by with many nations, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-trade-tariff-deal-japan-c87ee950?mod=hp_lead_pos7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">including Japan</a>. Trump lashed out at Tokyo overnight, threatening to raise the current 25% tariff on Japanese cars to 30% or 35%. Markets have been able to rally for several weeks now despite tariff uncertainty, in part because the president and many of his surrogates have suggested the July 9 deadline isn’t REALLY a deadline. In other news from Washington, the “One Big Beautiful Bill” slipped through the Senate yesterday. But some House Republicans are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/trump-tax-bill-hits-republican-resistance-in-house-ahead-of-vote?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">balking at its overall cost</a> and certain provisions. Investors will continue to watch the negotiating process there. Trump has said he wants a bill on his desk to sign by July 4. SPY, LULU, COST, AZN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64175.png" alt="chart" width="594" height="331" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, a war over athletic wear is breaking out. Lululemon Athletica Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lulu" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LULU</a>) is suing Costco Wholesale Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COST</a>), alleging the warehouse club retailer is <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lululemons-lawsuit-against-costco-highlights-202909845.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">selling knockoff versions</a> of LULU’s high-end workout and athleisure clothing. The fight over products like ABC pants, Define jackets, and Scuba hoodies is just the latest chapter in a long-running battle over cheap “dupes” of popular fashion items. COST declined to comment. Finally, Initial Public Offerings (IPO) and public listings are drying up...in the UK. Not only are more companies staying or going private there – just like in the US – but more already-public companies are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-02/london-s-new-listings-hit-28-year-low-as-astrazeneca-weighs-exit?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shifting their primary listings to the US</a>. The CEO of AstraZeneca PLC (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=azn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AZN</a>), Pascal Soriot, just said he wants to shift his firm’s listing to New York from London. It’s the most-valuable company traded in the UK, with a market capitalization of 161 billion British pounds. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64175/market-minute-7-2-25-dc-trade-tax-talks-in-focus/?scode=046929 Market Minute 7-1-25- After Big Q2 for Stocks, Bitcoin, Markets Take a Breather 7/1/2025 2:15:00 PM Equities are taking a breather after a fantastic second quarter. Crude oil, gold, and silver are rallying, though. Treasuries are flattish, while the dollar is dipping. The stock market just notched its best quarter since 2023, and the S&P 500 just closed at a record high for two trading days in a row. But will the strength continue in Q3? Probably at least through July, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GS</a>). The firm noted that the S&P <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-01/goldman-says-us-stock-rally-to-continue-before-fading-in-august" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hasn’t dropped in any July since 2014</a>. Plus, the index's average historical return for the month since 1928 is 1.67%. As for Q2, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) gained 10.1%, while the SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) rose 6% and the iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ibit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IBIT</a>) surged 26.7%. ETFs that track long-term Treasuries and the dollar fell 3.5% and 5.9%, respectively. SPY, GLD, TLT, IBIT, UUP (Q2 % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64169.png" alt="chart" width="530" height="295" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Wall Street is continuing to eye the “Big Beautiful Bill” drama in Washington. President Trump wants a bill on his desk to sign by the Fourth of July. But disagreements about <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-slams-elon-musk-as-his-megabill-drops-ai-protections-and-hits-snags-in-senate-114100423.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its budget-busting price tag</a>, energy-related provisions, and other issues are holding things up. Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) shares are also slipping amid a renewed feud between CEO Elon Musk and Trump over a bill provision that would tax green energy companies (and cost TSLA money). Finally, the robot revolution is a very real thing at Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>). <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/amazon-warehouse-robots-automation-942b814f?mod=hp_lead_pos7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">More than 1 million robots</a> are now sorting, packing, and moving boxes and products around its warehouses – almost equal to the firm’s human workforce in those facilities. Each AMZN facility now averages 670 human workers, the lowest in 16 years. But Amazon officials say that many human workers are now training for and taking higher-paying jobs, even as menial and body-taxing tasks are being automated. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64169/market-minute-7-1-25-after-big-q2-for-stocks-bitcoin-markets-take-a-breather/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-30-25- H1 Recap- Stocks Climb, Gold Soars, Dollar Tanks 6/30/2025 2:15:00 PM It has been a WILD first half of the year for markets. Now, in the final trading day for Q2, stocks are rallying while the dollar is dipping. Gold and silver are mixed, while Treasuries and crude oil are flat. Overall, the S&P 500 has surged 24% from its early April low, pushing its year-to-date gain to 5%. Big Tech <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64165/chart-of-the-day-6-30-25-a-$10-tln-spx-recovery-for-the-record-book/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has been leading the charge</a>, but many other stocks are now participating in the rally, too. Not only are we seeing the highest number of S&P 500 <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/sp-500-rally-sectors-efe6ba9b" target="_blank" rel="noopener">stocks trading above their 50-day moving averages</a> since the fall, but the index’s advance-decline line just hit a fresh high. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64166.png" alt="chart" width="553" height="448" /> Source: Wall Street Journal At the same time, the US dollar is closing out its worst first-half of trading since 1973. The US Dollar Index has dropped more than 10% this year due to trade and tariff policy concerns, expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, and growing worries over US debts and deficits. On the flip side, gold has surged more than 24% and Bitcoin has gained 15%. Meanwhile, North American trade policy is squarely in focus again – with markets getting an extra boost today after Canada took steps to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-30/canada-drops-digital-tax-that-infuriated-trump-to-restart-trade-talks?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">unwind its “digital services tax”</a> to placate President Trump. The 3% levy would have largely impacted US “Big Tech” companies like Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=META" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) and Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=GOOGL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) – and raised billions of dollars in revenue for Canada’s government. But Trump suspended trade talks on Friday over the tax. Canadian officials are hoping the move will allow for the two countries to lock in a broader trade deal by July 21. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64166/market-minute-6-30-25-h1-recap-stocks-climb-gold-soars-dollar-tanks/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-27-25- Stocks Keep Rallying as Tariff, War Worries Ease 6/27/2025 2:30:00 PM Stocks are rallying – again – after both the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) and Nasdaq Composite tested fresh all-time highs yesterday. Gold and silver are giving back some ground, while crude oil is modestly higher. Treasuries are lower, while the dollar is flattish. Trade-related headlines have been coming fast and furious in the last 24 hours. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said yesterday that a US-China deal solidifying terms previously agreed upon had been signed. China then <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-27/china-says-it-confirms-trade-framework-details-with-us?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">confirmed that news</a> this morning. More talks on big-picture issues will be needed. But this first step should result in rare earth materials flowing to the US from China and things like ethane flowing to China from the US. White House officials separately characterized the upcoming July 9 “deadline” for additional trade deal negotiations as “not critical” – implying it’s flexible rather than set in stone. ^SPX, NVDA, NKE (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64160.png" alt="chart" width="576" height="321" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, the Trump Administration and Republicans in Congress are no longer pushing for a “<a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/scott-bessent-minimum-tax-rates-g7-37fd1046" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revenge tax</a>” of up to 20% on foreign companies. A provision in the large tax and spending bill being negotiated in Congress would’ve applied the tax to several countries. It was in retaliation for those countries not following through on a 2021 global agreement to reduce some taxes on US-based companies that have foreign operations. In the markets, Big Tech is making a big comeback. I wrote about it in more detail in my <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-64159/chart-of-the-day-6-27-25-big-tech-is-so-back-again/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Chart of the Day column here</a>. But the move is powerful enough that Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) is close to becoming <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-breakout-puts-4-trillion-100304547.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the world’s first $4 TRILLION company</a>. The maker of advanced semiconductors is benefitting from the surge in Artificial Intelligence-related tech spending, and its ballooning valuation reflects that. As of yesterday’s close, NVDA’s market cap was $3.78 trillion. Finally, shares of athletic gear and shoe maker Nike Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nke" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NKE</a>) are surging after it reported <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nike-stock-surges-as-company-forecasts-smaller-sales-profit-drops-while-tariff-costs-near-1-billion-203839937.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">smaller-than-expected declines</a> in quarterly sales and earnings. The firm said it faced $1 billion in tariff-related costs, but that it would mitigate them by raising prices and moving more production out of China. The stock entered today's session down 16% year-to-date. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64160/market-minute-6-27-25-stocks-keep-rallying-as-tariff-war-worries-ease/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-25-25- Stocks Flirt with New Highs as War Fears Ebb 6/25/2025 2:20:00 PM Stocks are flirting with new highs this week, thanks to ebbing fears of a broader Middle East war. Trading has been muted so far this morning, though, with equities, gold, silver, and Treasuries all flattish. The dollar and crude oil are up a bit. Reports on the amount of damage <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/us-finding-says-strikes-had-limited-impact-on-iran-nuke-program?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Iranian nuclear sites sustained</a> are mixed. President Trump has declared them “completely destroyed,” while other reports suggest a more limited result. But from a market standpoint, what matters most is that the cease-fire appears to be holding. Gold and crude oil surrendered the “war premium” built into their prices over the last couple of days, while the iShares QQQ Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=qqq" target="_blank" rel="noopener">QQQ</a>) <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/mideast-cease-fire-pushes-stocks-higher-and-oil-lower-dedc6528" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hit a record high</a> (though just barely) yesterday. The S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>), for its part, entered today less than 1% below its record high from February. QQQ, ^SPX, FDX (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64151.png" alt="chart" width="488" height="313" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Still, the tariff countdown clock is ticking louder in the background. Trump’s 90-day negotiation deadline will expire on July 9, and investors haven’t heard much <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pressure-seal-trump-trade-deals-082640465.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">on the trade deal front lately</a>. The European Union, Canada, and several Asian nations are working to find common ground with the US before “Liberation Day” tariffs replace the 10% baseline levies currently in place for most countries. Worth noting: China and the US have a separate timeline that runs through mid-August. We’re in a relatively quiet period for corporate earnings, but FedEx Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fdx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FDX</a>) is one key exception. The global shipping giant warned that profit in the current quarter <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fedex-shares-slide-trade-turbulence-091137992.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">would miss targets</a>, and it declined to offer up a full-year prediction amid trade-related economic uncertainty. FDX has more exposure to US-China trade than other logistics firms like United Parcel Service Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ups" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UPS</a>). FDX shares were already down more than 17% year-to-date, and they’re slipping further today. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64151/market-minute-6-25-25-stocks-flirt-with-new-highs-as-war-fears-ebb/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-24-25- Stocks Rip, Oil Tanks as Tentative Cease-Fire Takes Hold 6/24/2025 2:15:00 PM After a remarkable 36 hours in the Middle East – which ultimately resulted in a tentative cease-fire – stocks are surging while oil is tanking. Gold is also retreating along with the dollar. Treasuries are flat, while Bitcoin is back above $105,000. Could the latest conflict in the Mideast be over already? That’s what Wall Street is betting on after the US struck key Iranian targets Saturday…Iran only responded with a choreographed missile strike…and Israel and Iran <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-us-latest-news?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">agreed to a cessation of attacks</a>. While both sides accused the other of violating the deal, the overall peace effort appears to be holding - for now. S&P 500 Index (^SPX) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64145.png" alt="chart" width="495" height="182" /> Crude oil futures were recently <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oil-wavers-plunge-trump-mideast-090231742.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">down more than $11 a barrel</a> from their Sunday-night highs. Gold is down about $75 an ounce from its recent high, while S&P 500 futures have surged more than 130 points. The S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=%5ESPX" target="_blank" rel="noopener">^SPX</a>) closed about 1.7% below its all-time high yesterday. The Federal Reserve’s extended-pause plan is starting to crack. Two Fed policymakers – governor Christopher Waller and vice chair Michelle Bowman – have <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/federal-reserve-interest-rates-pressure-trump-4ffd1edd?mod=hp_lead_pos11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">said they could support a rate cut</a> as soon as July. The remarks come in the wake of the June meeting, where policymakers voted unanimously to keep the federal funds rate unchanged. President Trump has criticized Fed Chair Jay Powell relentlessly, urging him to cut interest rates. So far, Powell has stayed firm while awaiting more data on the economic growth and inflation fronts. But chances of a cut in July are now up to around 23% -- and September’s implied rate cut odds have climbed to 63%, according to CME FedWatch. Finally, the outperformance of foreign markets vis-à-vis US ones is getting noticed. Some 44% of money managers are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-24/investors-are-most-positive-on-em-in-two-years-hsbc-survey-says?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">bullish on emerging markets now</a>, according to a quarterly survey from HSBC Holdings Plc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=HSBC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HSBC</a>). That’s up from 36% in the Q1 survey and the highest in two years. EM stocks and EM currencies have been rising fast. One reason: Investors are seeking out new winners after years of dominance by US markets in general and Mag 7 stocks in particular. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64145/market-minute-6-24-25-stocks-rip-oil-tanks-as-tentative-cease-fire-takes-hold/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-23-25- Markets Meander After US Strikes 6/23/2025 2:20:00 PM Markets are meandering after initial, larger moves Sunday evening. Crude oil is up just a bit along with gold, while equities are slightly lower. The dollar and Treasuries are up. The US entered the fray in the Middle East over the weekend, dropping 14 30,000-pound bunker buster bombs on three separate Iranian nuclear sites late Saturday. Tomahawk missiles were also launched from US submarines. It will take a while to <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/damage-extent-from-u-s-strikes-on-irans-fordow-nuclear-site-unclear-b86b9a58?mod=WTRN_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">determine the full extent of the damage</a> and the degree to which Iran’s nuclear ambitions have been set back by US and Israeli airstrikes. But President Trump lauded the raid as successful. Crude Oil, S&P 500, Gold Futures (1-Day % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64142.png" alt="chart" width="561" height="236" /> After markets opened Sunday evening, we saw the moves you might expect – a pop in oil and gold prices, and a decline in equity futures. But they weren’t large, and markets have largely retraced those initial moves since. Further moves will depend on how, when, and where Iran responds to the US joining the attack. <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-23/iran-s-promise-of-payback-keeps-world-powers-markets-on-edge?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Options range</a> from attacking US military bases in the region to attempting to disrupt the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz. Could the era of big banking mergers be back? Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=BK" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BK</a>) <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/banking/bank-of-new-york-mellon-approached-northern-trust-to-discuss-potential-merger-7017f4eb?mod=hp_lead_pos5" target="_blank" rel="noopener">recently approached</a> Northern Trust Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=NTRS" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NTRS</a>) about a tie up, according to the Wall Street Journal – a deal that would unite two behemoths in the trust, custodian, and wealth management industry. BNY’s market cap is around $65 billion, while NT’s is almost $22 billion. The Trump Administration is thought to be more open about banking deals than the Biden Administration before it. Finally, Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=TSLA" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) is officially giving Alphabet Inc.’s (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=GOOGL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) Waymo driverless taxi service a run for its money. Sort of. A <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-launches-foundational-robotaxi-service-in-austin-on-limited-scale-120042161.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">limited fleet of 10-20 Tesla robotaxis</a> took to the streets in a restricted part of Austin, Texas, allowing selected people to hail them and take rides. But it’ll take a long time for TSLA to match Waymo, which offers commercial service in multiple cities around the US. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64142/market-minute-6-23-25-markets-meander-after-us-strikes/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-20-25- Wall Street Watching 2-Week Deadline 6/20/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are rallying from overnight lows, though still largely marking time amid ongoing Middle East concerns. Gold and silver are pulling back, while crude oil has given back some recent gains. Treasuries and the dollar are modestly lower. The Middle East crisis continues to dominate the attention of markets. President Trump has <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-20/trump-to-decide-whether-to-join-strikes-on-iran-within-two-weeks?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">announced a two-week deadline</a> for diplomatic talks to proceed on the Iran-Israel conflict. The US could jump into the fray after that (or sooner) to help Israel further damage Iran’s nuclear and missile research and weapons programs. European foreign ministers and Iranian officials <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/iran-israel-conflict-news/card/european-ministers-to-press-iran-to-curtail-nuclear-activities-I6siBQNXp7czGFuBmbDw" target="_blank" rel="noopener">are holding talks in Geneva</a> today. USO, GLD, ACN, KR (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/dailyguru64136.png" alt="chart" width="571" height="318" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Crude oil markets have a $7-$8 per barrel “war premium” built into them right now. Gold has also been supported by the “safe haven” bid. Both commodities could give back some ground if we see any substantial de-escalation. We’re in a corporate earnings lull, with the second-quarter reporting season not set to start for a couple more weeks. Analysts are expecting Q2 earnings growth of 4.9% for S&P 500 companies, down from 13.3% in Q1, according to FactSet. Still, a few reports are trickling in – and getting noticed. Shares of the giant consulting firm Accenture (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ACN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ACN</a>) slid after <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/accenture-beats-third-quarter-revenue-104823365.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">contract bookings dropped 6%</a> to $19.7 billion. It’s vulnerable to spending cutbacks by the US government given its federal contract exposure. For its part, grocery store chain Kroger Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=KR" target="_blank" rel="noopener">KR</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/kroger-lifts-annual-identical-sales-120711745.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">raised its sales growth forecast for the year</a> – though it highlighted how uncertain its outlook remains due to US economic concerns. Coming into today, ACN was down 12.9% while KR was up 7.1% year-to-date. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64136/market-minute-6-20-25-wall-street-watching-2-week-deadline/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-18-25- Investors Waiting to See if US Joins the Fight 6/18/2025 2:45:00 PM Markets around the world are on pins and needles, making only muted moves as traders wait to see if the US joins the fight against Iran. The calm follows a late selloff in stocks yesterday after rumors of potential US involvement spread. As for the latest developments, President Trump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-18/israel-iran-conflict-enters-sixth-day-as-trump-weighs-options?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">met with his national security team</a> yesterday and urged Iran’s president to agree to “unconditional surrender.” He also spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Then this morning, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-conflict-news?mod=WSJ_home_mediumtopper_pos_1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">appeared to reject the surrender request</a>, adding that US participation in attacks on Iran would cause “irreparable damage.” He did so even as more US ships, planes, and other assets are being sent to the region. Those moves would give the US more military options if Trump decides to launch attacks. SPY, USO, UGA, GLD, UUP (1-Month % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64127.png" alt="chart" width="542" height="302" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/">YCharts</a> This chart shows how ETFs that track several major markets have traded in the past month – or in other words, both before and after the conflict began. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) is roughly unchanged. But the United States Oil Fund (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=uso" target="_blank" rel="noopener">USO</a>) has surged almost 21%, while the United States Gasoline Fund (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=uga" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UGA</a>) has risen almost 9%. The SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) has gained 6%, while the Invesco US Dollar Index Bullish Fund (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=uup" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UUP</a>) has lost 1.7%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest policy meeting will conclude later today – and new “Dot Plot” forecasts from Fed members will be released. They’ll show what policymakers think will happen with inflation, unemployment, interest rates, and other indicators over the next several quarters. Fed Chair Jay Powell & Co. won’t cut rates today. But markets will be watching those forecasts – and listening to what Powell says in today’s post-meeting press conference – closely. Investors are also wondering when Trump <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-early-fed-chair-nomination-102150496.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will announce a successor to Powell</a>, whose term ends in just under a year. The president has made no secret of <a href="https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/pressure-from-trump-vance-spur-powell-cut-interest-rates" target="_blank" rel="noopener">his disdain for Powell</a> and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates so far in 2025. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64127/market-minute-6-18-25-investors-waiting-to-see-if-us-joins-the-fight/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-17-25- Oil, Stocks Vacillate Amid War Worries 6/17/2025 2:20:00 PM Crude oil and stocks continue to vacillate amid uncertainty about what comes next in the Middle East. Oil prices were recently up about 2%, while equities were off modestly. Gold and silver were mixed, while Treasuries were rallying. The dollar was flat. What will happen next in the Israel-Iran conflict? Investors are trying to figure it out after President Trump left the G-7 meeting in Canada early, then said he was <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-conflict-news?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trying to find a “real end” to the conflict</a> versus a simple cease-fire. Meanwhile, Israel has continued to strike Iranian targets – even as reports emerged that the Iranian regime was looking for a way out of a conflict it appears to be losing. Crude Oil Futures (1-Month Chart) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64121.png" alt="chart" width="511" height="208" /> WTI oil futures were recently trading around $73, while Brent futures were changing hands around $75. The US benchmark is well above its low from last month of $57-and-change…but still several dollars under its high for 2025. That was around $80, set back in January. No one (myself included) expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at the meeting that concludes tomorrow. Now, Fed “whisperer” Nick Timiraos at the Wall Street Journal has <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-meeting-interest-rate-cut-inflation-27bbf5cb?mod=hp_lead_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weighed in with an article</a> suggesting the Fed might wait to cut even longer afterward. Officials are reportedly concerned that higher inflation expectations driven by tariff policy will lead to higher inflation itself as businesses raise prices and consumers ask for higher wages to compensate. That means a cut could be off the table at the Fed’s July meeting, too. But if employment data keeps fraying around the edges as it has been, the Fed’s hand could be forced by September. Markets were recently pricing in a 59% chance of a 25-basis point cut at that month’s gathering. Finally, shareholders at Verve Therapeutics Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=verv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VERV</a>) are waking up to a nice payday. Eli Lilly & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LLY</a>) said <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/eli-lilly-nears-1-3-234902177.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it would buy the startup for $1.3 billion</a> to expand a push into experimental gene-editing treatments. The $10.50 offer price represented a 67% premium to where VERV shares closed on Monday. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64121/market-minute-6-17-25-oil-stocks-vacillate-amid-war-worries/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-16-25- Crude Cools, Stocks Rise...But Traders Wary 6/16/2025 2:15:00 PM Crude oil is taking a breather after a couple big days of gains. Gold is also easing back after hitting a fresh record Friday, while equities are rallying. Treasuries and the dollar are down a bit. Markets are cautiously optimistic here on Monday morning – but traders remain wary of developments out of the Middle East. Strikes and counterstrikes continued in Israel and Iran over the weekend, with Israeli forces reportedly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-takes-control-of-irans-skiesa-feat-that-still-eludes-russia-in-ukraine-846ccb95?mod=hp_lead_pos7" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gaining air superiority</a> and operational flexibility in Iran. Still, Iran has still been able to launch almost 400 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel, attacks that have killed and wounded dozens. USO, GLD, SPY (5-Day % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64118.png" alt="chart" width="531" height="296" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> While there have been <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/israel-iran-attack-news?mod=lc_navigation" target="_blank" rel="noopener">limited attacks on energy facilities</a> in both countries, we haven’t (yet) seen the widespread destruction of oil-exporting or storage facilities. Iran also hasn’t fully committed to trying to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. That has <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/commodities-futures/oil-rises-amid-middle-east-tensions-aac65759?mod=WTRN_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">allowed oil prices to stabilize</a> after big increases late last week and Sunday night. The Federal Reserve will meet tomorrow and Wednesday to discuss interest rate policy. While policymakers won’t cut rates, they will release new “dot plot” forecasts suggesting how many cuts they are leaning toward later in 2025 and early 2026. Markets are currently <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/investors-and-trump-are-about-to-find-out-if-fed-still-wants-rate-cuts-in-2025-080022936.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">pricing in three</a> 25 basis point reductions over the next year, most likely starting in September. Finally, Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=META" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) is REALLY going all-in on AI. Days after revealing plans to assemble a “superintelligence” <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64097/market-minute-6-10-25-tech-investors-want-more-ai-less-liquid-glass/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">group of Artificial Intelligence researchers</a>, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram shelled out $14.3 billion to <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/meta-investors-cheer-zuckerberg-doubles-101644156.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">buy a 49% stake in Scale AI</a>. Meta uses AI in ad targeting, creation, and engagement, among other tasks. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64118/market-minute-6-16-25-crude-cools-stocks-risebut-traders-wary/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-13-25- Oil Soars, Stocks Slide as Israel Strikes Iran 6/13/2025 2:20:00 PM Crude oil soared overnight and this morning after Israel struck multiple sites across Iran. Stocks slid, while gold popped on safe-haven buying. The dollar is modestly higher, while Treasuries are mostly flat. Israel launched a <a href="https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/israel-iran-strikes-news-06-12-25-hnk-intl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">powerful and widespread attack</a> on Iranian territory overnight, hitting military bases, residential complexes, and air defense targets with drones and more than 200 fighter jets. Key Iranian military leaders were reportedly killed, while the Natanz nuclear site where Iran has been enriching uranium was also struck. Crude Oil, Gold, S&P Futures (Overnight % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64112.png" alt="chart" width="576" height="242" /> Iran is responding with drone and missile attacks on Israel, with many being intercepted along the way. The US and Iran were <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-13/trump-urges-iran-to-make-a-nuclear-deal-to-avoid-more-attacks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">scheduled to hold another round of negotiations</a> over Iran’s nuclear development program Sunday, but it’s unclear if that will go ahead. President Trump urged Iran to make a deal again in the hours after Israel’s initial strike. As for markets, crude oil rose around 10% when the news broke, before giving back a couple percentage points of that move. US WTI futures were recently trading up about $5 at $73. Gold topped $3,460 an ounce before easing back, while stocks slid about 1%. Markets will be closely watching how far the conflict spreads – and whether the US is somehow drawn in. In other news, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/the-biggest-ipos-look-a-lot-like-the-biggest-stocks-in-the-market-morning-brief-100049033.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) are back</a>...sort of. The USDC “stablecoin” issuer Circle Internet Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=crcl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CRCL</a>) went public last Friday, and it subsequently rallied 240%. The Artificial Intelligence and data center play CoreWeave Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=crwv" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CRWV</a>) started trading on March 28, and it surged almost 300% thereafter. Still, activity remains far below the frenzied levels we saw in the most recent boom year of 2021 – when a <a href="https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/Stats" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whopping 397 IPOs raised $142 billion</a>, according to Renaissance Capital. Moreover, the Renaissance IPO ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ipo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IPO</a>) was up 1% year-to-date through yesterday, less than the 3% rise in the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>). https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64112/market-minute-6-13-25-oil-soars-stocks-slide-as-israel-strikes-iran/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-11-25- Tamer Inflation Plus End of Talks = Happier Markets 6/11/2025 2:20:00 PM Markets were cheered by two developments overnight and this morning, with equities and Treasuries rebounding from earlier losses. Gold is rising along with crude oil, while the dollar is dipping. Yes, the inflation data IS getting better – and that’s a plus! The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose just 0.1% in May, below the average forecast for a gain of 0.2% The “core” index that strips out food and energy also rose 0.1%, compared with expectations for a 0.3% rise. Headline, Core Inflation (YOY % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64103.png" alt="chart" width="1110" height="446" /> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics From a year ago, inflation is running at 2.4% on the headline and 2.8% on the core. While many experts have worried that higher tariffs would feed through to broad goods prices, this data suggests we’re not seeing it yet. The Federal Reserve will be pleased, even as we still aren’t likely to see any rate cuts at the meeting that concludes next Wednesday. Ditto for the one after it that wraps on July 30...though September is in play. Meanwhile, the latest round of US-China trade talks in London are over...and both sides have <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-10/us-china-officials-say-consensus-reached-on-geneva-framework?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shared upbeat comments</a> afterward. It looks like we’ll see an easing of slow-walked or newly restricted exports (rare earths in China’s case, tech gear in the US’s case). President Trump and President Xi Jinping will have to review and sign off on what negotiators agreed to. Plus, based on what Trump shared in a social media post this morning, it looks like <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u-s-and-china-agree-to-get-geneva-pact-back-on-track-695eb5f5?mod=hp_lead_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">we’re mostly back to where we were</a> after a previous round of talks in Geneva a month ago. But that appears to be good enough for markets. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64103/market-minute-6-11-25-tamer-inflation-plus-end-of-talks-=-happier-markets/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-10-25- Tech Investors Want More AI, Less Liquid Glass 6/10/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks were mixed after a late-day fade yesterday...and they’re mixed in early trading today. Crude oil is up modestly, while gold, silver, and the dollar are flat. Bitcoin is flirting with $110,000 again. Turns out “Liquid Glass” isn’t revolutionary enough to excite investors. Or at least, that’s the conclusion you can draw from trading in Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) yesterday after the firm <a href="https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/apple-ai-strategy-wwdc-challenges-bdae4fb5?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">revealed the new device interface</a>. Apple’s annual Worldwide Developers Conference, or WWDC, has long been one of the tech hardware and software company’s signature events. But Apple didn’t have any truly big news in store. AAPL, META, BRO, BX (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/dailyguru64097.png" alt="chart" width="517" height="288" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> The firm is reportedly planning to share more innovative "Apple Intelligence" AI developments next year. Meanwhile, its shares slipped 1.2% yesterday – and they’re down about 19% year-to-date. Ironically, Bloomberg just reported that Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) CEO Mark Zuckerberg is frustrated with the pace of AI research at his company. His response? To <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-10/zuckerberg-recruits-new-superintelligence-ai-group-at-meta?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">assemble a “superintelligence” group</a> of leading AI researchers and experts to accelerate META’s efforts. We have another deal in the insurance industry. Broker Brown & Brown Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bro" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BRO</a>) will <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brown-brown-signs-9-8-105558840.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fork over $9.8 billion</a> for Accession Risk Management, adding a firm that owns the specialty brokerage firm Risk Strategies. Leading players have been bulking up to gain economies of scale in a fragmented space. Could the next big investment frontier be...Europe? That’s what Blackstone Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BX</a>) CEO Steve Schwarzman just seemed to imply when he announced plans to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-10/blackstone-plans-500-billion-europe-investment-schwarzman-says?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">invest $500 billion in the region</a> over the next 10 years. Europe has long been as a region hamstrung by government regulation and slow growth. But Schwarzman said they are “starting to change their approach here, which we think will result in higher growth rates.” https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64097/market-minute-6-10-25-tech-investors-want-more-ai-less-liquid-glass/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-9-25- Markets Eyeing US-China Talks 6/9/2025 2:15:00 PM Most markets are marking time as investors await news on the trade front. Equities, Treasuries, and the dollar are flatlining, while crude oil is up a bit. Gold and silver are mixed. Markets are <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-09/us-china-trade-talks-start-in-london-aiming-to-ease-export-curbs?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">eagerly awaiting the results</a> of US-China trade talks currently underway in London. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer are leading the US delegation, while Vice Premier He Lifeng is at the head of the Chinese team. The US wants China to export rare earth metals more freely, while China wants the US to ease its own export restrictions. It’s possible the talks will extend to tomorrow – so it’s not 100% clear when we’ll hear results. WBD, HOOD, COIN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64094.png" alt="chart" width="554" height="308" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=wbd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">WBD</a>) is trying to prop up its stock by <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/media/warner-discovery-splits-cable-from-marquee-streaming-studio-businesses-491a343c?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">splitting itself in two</a>. The media conglomerate will carve out its HBO Max streaming service and movie and television show studios from its cable networks. The cable business entity will then include networks like CNN and TNT. It’s a remarkable development considering the current firm is the result of a 2022 mega-merger that meshed all the businesses together under a single corporate umbrella. WBD shares have lost 7% year-to-date and 41% in the last three years. Finally, shares of Robinhood Markets Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=hood" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HOOD</a>) dipped after the red-hot brokerage stock <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/robinhood-shares-fall-p-500-114714384.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">did NOT get added to the S&P 500</a>. Investors were hoping S&P Dow Jones Indices would add HOOD to the index as part of its quarterly rebalancing process. But that didn’t happen late Friday. Companies can be added if they have a market capitalization of at least $20.5 billion and are based and listed in the US. HOOD’s market cap is around $66 billion after a 101% YTD rally. The crypto-trading and exchange company Coinbase Global Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=coin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COIN</a>) earned S&P 500 membership last month. Its shares are up 1.2% YTD. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64094/market-minute-6-9-25-markets-eyeing-us-china-talks/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-6-25- Jobs Hold Firm, Markets Breathe Easier 6/6/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are breathing easier after encouraging jobs data hit the tape this morning. Stocks are rising after giving up ground on Thursday. Treasuries are slipping and the dollar is climbing, while precious metals and crude oil are mostly flat. Expectations had been lightening up this week after ADP employment data came in weak on Wednesday AND the Challenger, Gray & Christmas data released yesterday showed <a href="https://www.challengergray.com/blog/may-2025-job-cuts-up-47-over-same-month-last-year-cuts-spread-to-other-sectors-than-govt-for-other-reasons-than-doge/?utm_content=334794776&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&hss_channel=tw-33535396" target="_blank" rel="noopener">layoff announcements surged 47%</a> year-over-year in May. But Labor Department figures showed <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2025-06-06/us-employment-report-for-may" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the economy created 139,000 jobs</a> last month, slightly ahead of forecasts. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, as expected, while average hourly earnings grew a better-than-forecast 0.4%. FXI, SPY, TSLA (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64088.png" alt="chart" width="549" height="305" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> In other news, an extraordinary dust up between Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) CEO Elon Musk and President Trump yesterday sent <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-stock-plunges-14-as-disappointed-trump-threatens-subsidies-contracts-for-musks-businesses-200339978.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA shares careening 14% lower</a>. The two argued over tax cut legislation, Tesla’s government contracts, and more on social media and in the press. That fueled Tesla’s second-worst one-day drop since 2020, a move that lopped $150 billion off the stock’s market capitalization. TSLA has now lost more than 29% year-to-date, though it's bouncing a bit today after tensions cooled overnight. Finally, Trump and Chinese president Xi Jinping <a href="https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0qg23gqllwo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">held a long-rumored phone call</a> on Thursday. Trump said the call resulted in progress on the rare-earth export front, while Chinese officials believe they got relief from a threatened ban on Chinese students attending US universities. We’re in the midst of a 90-day cooling off period where extremely punitive tariffs have been lowered to give talks time to progress. Meanwhile, the iShares China Large-Cap ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fxi" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FXI</a>) remains well ahead of the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) on the year. FXI has gained 20.3%, while SPY has risen just 1.2%. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64088/market-minute-6-6-25-jobs-hold-firm-markets-breathe-easier/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-4-25- Swticheroo in Play as Global Stocks Hit Highs, US Lags 6/4/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are relatively quiet so far, with stocks, gold, and crude oil all mostly flat. Treasuries are rallying modestly, though, while the dollar is dipping. We have a switcheroo in major markets. Led by strong performance in non-US equities, the MSCI All-Country World Index just tagged 888.24 – <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-04/global-stocks-hit-record-high-on-optimism-for-resilient-economy?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">topping its previous February peak</a> of 887.72. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index is beating the S&P 500 by the widest margin on record. In the Americas, all major indices are outperforming the S&P 500 handily, with benchmark indices in Canada up 6.8%, Brazil up 14.3%, and Mexico up 16.4%. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminte64079.png" alt="chart" width="543" height="302" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> This chart shows the performance of the iShares MSCI ACWI ex US ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=acwx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ACWX</a>) compared to the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>). The former holds more than 1,700 non-US stocks, with the highest weighting in names like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSM</a>), Tencent Holdings Ltd. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tcehy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TCEHY</a>), and SAP SE (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=sap" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SAP</a>). As you can see, ACWX has gained just under 15% so far in 2025, compared with only 1.7% for the SPY. This is a big week for job market data – and today’s ADP number didn’t exactly excite Wall Street. The private payroll company said the US economy added just 37,000 jobs in May. That was down from 60,000 a month prior and FAR below the average forecast of 115,000. Official Labor Department numbers are due out Friday morning. In other news, US-China trade disagreements keep festering. President Trump called Chinese President Xi Jinping “extremely hard to make a deal with” in a social media post overnight. Hoped-for talks between the two leaders still haven’t happened. Meanwhile, China’s crackdown on exports of rare-earth metals is threatening manufacturers here in the US. <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/car-companies-production-rare-earth-shortage-aaf87ad2?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Auto companies are particularly vulnerable</a>, especially those who are titling more toward Electric Vehicle (EV) production. Those vehicles need rare-earth magnets to function and sourcing them from China has become much more difficult. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64079/market-minute-6-4-25-swticheroo-in-play-as-global-stocks-hit-highs-us-lags/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-3-25- Wet-Blanket Forecasts Weigh on Markets 6/3/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are treading water this morning after a late-day rally yesterday. Gold and silver are pulling back a bit, while crude oil is rising modestly along with the dollar. Treasuries are flattish. Investors are warily eyeing a raft of economic reports out this week. Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing index came in a bit light, and the services-sector counterpart report looms tomorrow. We also get fresh monthly payrolls data on Friday; Job growth is expected to decelerate to 130,000 in May from 177,000 in April. Ahead of those figures, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-trump-tariffs-trade-war-06-03-2025/card/world-growth-to-slow-amid-trade-turmoil-oecd-warns-jXGii6l0YRCMeHdYZckW" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cut its global GDP growth forecasts</a> today – a wet blanket weighing on markets. The chorus of financial heavy hitters <a href="https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/wall-street-bond-market-us-debt-990e12e9?mod=hp_lead_pos3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">warning about the US government’s finances</a> and debt markets is growing louder, too. JP Morgan Chase & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=jpm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">JPM</a>) CEO Jamie Dimon was the latest to caution about a “crack in the bond market.” Worry about rising deficits and debt is a key reason the Trump Administration’s tax and spending bill <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/ron-johnson-trump-tax-bill-deficit-dec36940" target="_blank" rel="noopener">is struggling in Congress</a>. GLD, IBIT, TLT (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64073.png" alt="chart" width="535" height="298" /> Treasuries aren’t tanking too much…yet. The yield on the 30-Year Treasury Bond is only hovering around 5%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tlt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TLT</a>) has lost just 2.4% this year. But we HAVE seen stellar performance among alternative stores of value like gold and Bitcoin, indicating capital rotation is underway. The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ibit" target="_blank" rel="noopener">IBIT</a>) has gained more than 11% year-to-date, while the SPDR Gold Shares (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gld" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GLD</a>) has surged just over 28%. Job cuts are another development worth noting. Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>) reportedly <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-02/microsoft-layoffs-continue-with-hundreds-more-cut?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">let a few hundred more workers go</a> yesterday after a 6,000-employee purge announced last month. Leading technology firms are paring back in some places to free up more money to invest in Artificial Intelligence (AI) initiatives. Meanwhile, global auto giant Volkswagen AG (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=vwagy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">VWAGY</a>) said more than 20,000 German workers <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-03/volkswagen-says-20-000-workers-agree-to-depart-by-end-of-decade" target="_blank" rel="noopener">will take early retirement deals</a> to pare that company’s workforce in the next few years. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64073/market-minute-6-3-25-wet-blanket-forecasts-weigh-on-markets/?scode=046929 Market Minute 6-2-25- Markets Wary Amid Rising Russia, China Strife 6/2/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are selling off in the early going, while “safe haven” assets like gold and silver are spiking (along with crude oil). Treasuries and the dollar are down. Hopes for détente in the US-China trade war are fading after tit-for-tat charges of violations. President Trump said late last week that China was backtracking on pledges related to rare-earth metals exports. Then today, China’s Ministry of Commerce said the US was illegitimately controlling exports of Artificial Intelligence (AI) chips and revoking Chinese student visas. That <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-02/china-accuses-us-of-violating-trade-truce-vows-firm-response?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jeopardizes the preliminary agreements</a> reached in Geneva talks last month. USO, GLD, NUE, SNY (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64069.png" alt="chart" width="552" height="307" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Ukraine launched an audacious drone attack in Russia over the weekend. Five separate airfields deep within Russia were <a href="https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/01/europe/ukraine-drones-russia-airbases-intl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">struck with a force of 117 drones</a>, and dozens of Russian long-range bombers and surveillance airplanes were reportedly damaged. Ukrainian and Russian negotiators are meeting in Istanbul for peace talks and the strike was likely designed to give Ukraine some additional leverage. The prices of crude oil, gold, and silver all rose in the wake of the attacks as they rekindled geopolitical fears in markets. That said, OPEC+ just agreed to raise output by 411,000 barrels per day in July. Concerns about more barrels returning to the market over time are keeping pressure on crude, which is still down about 11% year-to-date. Merger Monday might be a hackneyed term, but I’m going with it anyway. Sanofi SA (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=sny" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SNY</a>) announced it’ll purchase Blueprint Medicines Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=bpmc" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BPMC</a>) for $9.1 billion. The French-US pharmaceutical deal was Sanofi’s largest since 2018, and it <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-02/sanofi-to-buy-blueprint-medicines-for-9-1-billion-equity-value" target="_blank" rel="noopener">adds existing and potential immunology treatments</a> to Sanofi’s arsenal. Finally, shares of US steel companies are surging after the <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/trump-steel-tariffs-cleveland-cliffs-stock-f35fec60?siteid=yhoof2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">president vowed to double steel import tariffs</a> to 50% from 25%. Trump’s plan will allow US producers to hike prices, making more money on their metals output. Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=clf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CLF</a>) and Nucor Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nue" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NUE</a>) were among the beneficiaries. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64069/market-minute-6-2-25-markets-wary-amid-rising-russia-china-strife/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-30-25- "Tariff On, Tariff Off" Saga Continues After Court Rulings 5/30/2025 2:10:00 PM Stocks are giving back some ground this morning after a strong finish yesterday. Gold, silver, and oil are also retreating, while Treasuries and the dollar are flatlining. Bitcoin is back to trading around $105,000 after early-week strength. In the end, May has proven to be a blockbuster month for stocks. Barring any unforeseen collapse today, the S&P 500 will finish with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-30/s-p-500-s-banner-month-faces-off-with-june-s-lackluster-record?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">gain of more than 6%</a> for the month. That would make this the best May showing for the index since 1990. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64063.png" alt="chart" width="481" height="203" /> Source: Bloomberg On the flip side, a broad Treasury index is suffering its first down month in 2025 – with long-term bonds getting hit particularly hard. Storm clouds may also loom for stocks in June. After all, everyone on Wall Street and in Washington is wondering “What happens next with tariffs and trade?” given the whirlwind of developments in the last 24 hours. First, the US Court of International Trade <a href="https://youtube.com/shorts/9RJ0pj2Jbi0?si=pyO3G6D650XZhqEG" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ruled against President Trump</a> and his use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act of 1977 to implement several of his tariffs. Then, a federal court <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trump-administration-races-to-stop-bombshell-tariff-ruling-4501e4fe" target="_blank" rel="noopener">temporarily postponed the implementation</a> of that court’s ruling to give attorneys on both sides time to prepare and present appeals arguments. In case its appeal to that court – and the Supreme Court later, if necessary – fail, the administration is reportedly <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-trade-tariff-strategy-pivot-bfe11596?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weighing other options</a>. It could fall back on the Trade Act of 1974 or even the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930 as the legal basis for a renewed tariff push. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent weighed in on US-China talks yesterday, saying they were “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-29/bessent-says-a-trump-xi-call-could-help-as-talks-a-bit-stalled?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a bit stalled</a>” and suggesting a Trump conversation with Chinese president Xi Jinping may be needed to move things along. Finally, we got another mixed bag of earnings reports from the retail sector. Costco Wholesale Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COST</a>) continued to shine, with earnings per share of $4.28 <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/costco-posts-mixed-earnings-results-as-consumers-seek-value-amid-tariff-uncertainty-204845319.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">beating analyst forecasts</a> and same-store sales climbing 8%. But clothing retailer Gap Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gap" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GAP</a>) warned that tariff policy would boost costs by as much as $150 million in the current fiscal year. It also said sales would flatline this quarter. COST shares were little changed recently, while GAP shares are tanking. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64063/market-minute-5-30-25-tariff-on-tariff-off-saga-continues-after-court-rulings/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-28-25- Markets Churn Ahead of Nvidia, Fed News 5/28/2025 2:00:00 PM After a powerful rally on Tuesday, markets are churning ahead of key news on the earnings and interest rate front. Equities, Treasuries, gold, and silver are all trading around the flatline. Crude oil and the dollar were recently up modestly. Wednesday is “Waiting Day” – waiting for Nvidia Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVDA</a>) earnings after the bell and the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes before it. The benchmark chip-making behemoth is <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-nvidia-earnings-tariffs-trade-war-05-28-2025/card/nvidia-earnings-what-to-watch-XPWm0AGzxXrnR7TZvS3g" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reporting fiscal first-quarter results</a>...and investors are eagerly awaiting the data. <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64054.png" alt="chart" width="530" height="295" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Forecasts call for adjusted earnings per share of 88 cents, up from 61 cents in the year-ago period. Revenue is expected to rise 66% to $43.3 billion. Nvidia announced already that it would have to take a $5.5 billion charge because the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/nvidia-to-report-q1-earnings-as-middle-east-deals-export-control-reprieve-boost-stock-122728218.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Trump Administration banned sales</a> of the firm’s H20 chip to China. NVDA shares have traded in a large sideways range for the past year. As for the Fed, minutes from the May 6-7 policy meeting could shed light on how long officials are content to play “<a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-may-meeting-minutes-fefb0119" target="_blank" rel="noopener">wait-and-see</a>” when it comes to cutting interest rates. We’ve seen a mix of weaker “soft” economic data and solid “hard” numbers – with sentiment fading but hiring solid. Inflation has come off the boil, but not enough to inspire an imminent rate cut. The federal funds rate target is 4.25%-4.5% currently, with the next three policy meetings set to conclude on June 18, July 30, and September 17. Rate futures markets are pricing in virtually no chance of a June cut, and only a 1-in-4 chance of a 25-basis point move in July. But the odds of a cut in September are hovering just under 50%. On the retail front, a trio of leading chains reported their latest results. Macy’s Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=m" target="_blank" rel="noopener">M</a>) <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-28/macy-s-m-says-ceo-s-strategy-sparked-better-than-expected-results?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">showed signs of stabilizing</a>, with a new strategy of focusing on top-performing locations paying off with better-than-expected sales. Teenager and young-adult clothing company Abercrombie & Fitch Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=anf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">ANF</a>) <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-28/abercrombie-surges-on-raised-outlook-after-tallying-tariff-cost" target="_blank" rel="noopener">topped sales targets</a>, too, while Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dks" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DKS</a>) reiterated its guidance. The sporting goods chain is in the process of acquiring Foot Locker Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=fl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">FL</a>) for $2.4 billion. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64054/market-minute-5-28-25-markets-churn-ahead-of-nvidia-fed-news/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-27-25- EU Deadline Shift Fuels Market Rip 5/27/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks and Treasuries are both powering ahead in post-Memorial Day trading. Gold and silver are pulling back though. The dollar is modestly higher, while crude oil is flat. Before the weekend, President Trump gave markets a jolt by threatening to hit the European Union with 50% tariffs starting June 1. Over the weekend, he <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-25/us-equity-futures-gain-as-europe-deadline-extended-markets-wrap?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">extended the deadline</a> to July 9 after a call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. That fueled a Monday rally in European markets, and a rally here today now that US markets are open again. AAPL, CRM, INFA (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64048.png" alt="chart" width="1082" height="723" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/">YCharts</a> Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-27/apple-aapl-share-price-faces-more-pain-as-trump-s-tariff-threat-looms?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investors remain wary</a>, though, as a threatened 25% tariff is still hovering over the company. Trump made the threat to try to force Apple to move more manufacturing operations from China and India to the US. AAPL shares just fell eight days in a row, leaving them down 22% year-to-date. Meanwhile, global interest rates eased back on news out of Japan. The Japanese Ministry of Finance is reportedly planning to <a href="https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/japan-consider-tweaking-bond-issuance-plan-sources-say-2025-05-27/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trim issuance of longer-term bonds</a>, a move designed to keep supply from overwhelming demand. That said, the Japanese government still needs to raise boatloads of yen to fund its operations. So, it’ll have to increase sales of shorter-term securities even as it lowers sales of 20-year to 40-year bonds. Lastly, Salesforce Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=crm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CRM</a>) is reportedly set to pay $8 billion for Informatica Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=infa" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INFA</a>). The two corporate software firms were set to combine a year ago before <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/deals/salesforce-nears-8-billion-deal-for-informatica-407dc27c?mod=hp_lead_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">deal-term disagreements</a> scuttled the talks. Salesforce hasn’t shelled out this much money on an acquisition since its $28 billion purchase of Slack Technologies in 2021. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64048/market-minute-5-27-25-eu-deadline-shift-fuels-market-rip/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-23-25- New Tariff Threats Upend Pre-Holiday Markets 5/23/2025 2:20:00 PM After giving up most of their gains yesterday, stocks are slumping today amid renewed tariff threats. Crude oil is falling along with the dollar, while gold is rallying. Treasuries – for a change – are higher in price. Just when you thought the tariff turmoil had settled down...President Trump decided to mix things up. Specifically, this morning he threatened to slap 50% tariffs on goods from the European Union (EU), saying policymakers there aren’t negotiating in good faith. He also pledged to hit Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) with a <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-23/trump-threatens-25-tariffs-on-apple-if-iphones-not-made-in-us?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">25% tariff on the firm’s products</a> if it continued to produce iPhones for US purchase in China or India versus the US. Markets tanked in response. Meanwhile, the global bond market is getting more attention these days – and for good reason. Faced with a glut of bond issuance from the US and other debt-burdened nations, <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/bond-market-yields-government-borrowing-4a78af80?mod=hp_lead_pos11" target="_blank" rel="noopener">investors are pushing back</a>. They’re demanding higher yields to buy bonds at auction and in the secondary markets. That’s threatening to derail tax, spending, and borrowing plans that governments would otherwise like to pursue. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tlt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TLT</a>) just slipped into the red again, with a loss of about 2% year-to-date. I highly recommend checking out our latest <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/podcast-64039/moneymasters-podcast-5-22-25-how-bond-yields-are-reacting-to-chinas-trade-war/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast</a> episode featuring Crossmark Global’s Victoria Fernandez for critical intelligence on why this is happening – and what’s coming next. AAPL, PPLT, TLT (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64047.png" alt="chart" width="545" height="304" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Don’t look now – but ANOTHER precious metal (besides gold) is getting in on the bullish action. This time, it’s platinum! The metal just hit $1,097 an ounce in the spot market, up more than 10% on the week to a two-year high. Not only is platinum supply failing to keep up with demand, but some believe demand will rise as <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-heads-weekly-surge-us-014259623.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">jewelry buyers shift to platinum products</a> from gold ones given how expensive gold has become. The abrdn Physical Platinum Shares ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pplt">PPLT</a>) is now up 18.7% year-to-date. Finally, if you’re planning on traveling for the Memorial Day weekend, you might want to shut down your laptop now and hit the road. The American Automobile Association (AAA) predicts travel volume will hit <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/news/memorial-day-nationwide-travel-forecast-what-to-expect-this-weekend-190739537.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">an all-time record for the holiday</a>, with more than 45 million Americans traveling at least 50 miles from home. That would represent a 1.4 million-traveller rise from last year – and top the record 44 million that hit the road, train station, or airport in 2005. Speaking of the holiday, US markets will be closed for Memorial Day on Monday – so there will be no Top Pros’ Top Picks newsletter on May 26. We will resume publication Tuesday, May 27. Happy Memorial Day! https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64047/market-minute-5-23-25-new-tariff-threats-upend-pre-holiday-markets/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-21-25- Yield Spike Kneecaps Stocks 5/21/2025 2:15:00 PM Bond yields are spiking, and that’s kneecapping US stocks. The dollar is dropping, too, while gold and silver prices are climbing along with crude oil. On Capitol Hill, Republicans are trying to <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-21/congress-pulls-tax-cut-all-nighter-with-salt-fight-unresolved?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">overcome objections from within the party</a> to pass a large tax-and-spending bill advocated by President Trump. Some lawmakers want more generous “SALT” deductions, while others want more-aggressive Medicaid spending cuts. But global bond investors are concerned that whatever compromise bill gets hammered out won’t rein in US budget deficits and debt growth. Moody’s just stripped the US of its last “AAA” credit rating, and outside experts say the bill as discussed could boost deficits by almost $3 trillion in the next decade. In part because of that, the yield on the 30-year Treasury Bond <a href="https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-tariffs-trade-war-05-21-2025/card/u-s-30-year-treasury-yield-tests-5-again-global-bonds-sell-off-bIyDWM6n49czp4CCFgzN">breached 5%</a> again overnight. It hasn’t closed there since October 2023…and before that, August 2007. The 10-year Treasury Note yield topped 4.54%. Redfin Home Price Index (YOY % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64036.png" alt="chart" width="538" height="223" /> One consequence of the move: The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate just climbed to a three-month high of 6.92%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. That pushed an index that tracks home purchase and refinance loan applications <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-21/us-mortgage-rates-rise-to-three-month-high-slowing-home-demand?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">down 5% in the most recent week</a>. A Redfin gauge of home prices slipped 0.1% in April, the first monthly drop since September 2022. Annual price appreciation slowed to the <a href="https://www.redfin.com/news/home-price-index-april-2025/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lowest since July 2023</a>. Finally, we got mixed news out of the retail sector today. General merchandise retailer Target Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tgt" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TGT</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/target-badly-misses-on-earnings-slashes-guidance-as-it-battles-dei-backlash-and-reinvigorated-walmart-103038522.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">whiffed on Q1 earnings</a>, reported a drop of almost 4% in same-store sales, and cut full-year guidance. Its shares fell further this morning after dropping 27% year-to-date. On the flip side, home improvement retailer Lowe’s Cos. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=low" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LOW</a>) slightly topped profit targets amid a smaller-than-expected slide in sales. The firm <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/lowes-stock-rises-as-the-company-reports-better-than-expected-earnings-after-home-depots-mixed-quarter-103541909.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reiterated full-year guidance</a>, helping buoy LOW shares. They’re still down about 6% YTD. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64036/market-minute-5-21-25-yield-spike-kneecaps-stocks/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-20-25- Markets 1, Moody's 0. 5/20/2025 2:10:00 PM US stocks and bonds battled back from a lousy open yesterday, and they’re mixed in the early going today. Gold is up a bit, while the dollar and crude oil are down a bit. Bitcoin traded closer to a new high before easing back. The score yesterday: Stock markets 1, Moody’s Ratings 0. In other words, buyers stepped in after early weakness caused by the Moody’s debt downgrade on Friday – and all three major indices closed (slightly) in the green. It was the S&P 500’s sixth “up” day in a row. Global Yield Curves (US, UK, Germany, Canada, Japan) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64030.png" alt="chart" width="708" height="242" /> Source: TradingView Still, concerns remain about the US debt and deficit outlook. The sovereign debt-buying strike just went global, too. A Japanese <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-20/japan-s-20-year-bond-auction-gets-weakest-demand-since-2012" target="_blank" rel="noopener">government bond auction bombed</a>, with demand the weakest since 2012. Yields on 20-year Japanese bonds jumped in response, hitting the highest since 2000. Among major economies (the US, UK, Germany, Canada, Japan, as shown in the chart above), the UK sports the highest 10-year yield at 4.67% while Japan has the lowest at 1.51%. On the earnings front, home improvement retailer Home Depot Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=hd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">HD</a>) reported a mixed bag of results. Profit fell 4.9% to $3.45 per share even as sales rose 9.4% to $39.8 billion. While transaction growth was solid, <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/home-depot-stock-rises-despite-earnings-miss-as-it-navigates-trumps-tariffs-100411245.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">average ticket size stagnated</a> – and questions remain about the impact of tariffs on the company’s bottom line. Finally, we just saw a hugely successful Initial Public Offering (IPO) – in Hong Kong. The Chinese battery giant Contemporary Amperex Technology – or CATL – raised $4.6 billion in its IPO. Then <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/chinese-ev-battery-giant-catls-shares-surge-on-hong-kong-debut-666363cd?mod=lead_feature_below_a_pos2" target="_blank" rel="noopener">its shares surged 16%</a>. CATL is a major player in the global Electric Vehicle (EV) market, with more than 17 million EVs powered by its batteries. The company operates in 64 different countries and regions. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64030/market-minute-5-20-25-markets-1-moodys-0/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-19-25- "Sell America" Trade Resumes as Last US "AAA" Taken Away 5/19/2025 2:15:00 PM US stocks. US bonds. The US dollar. They’re all dropping in the wake of a key credit rating move late on Friday. Gold and silver are jumping, though. Crude oil is easing back. Almost a decade-and-a-half after the US lost its FIRST gold-standard credit rating, it lost its last on Friday. Moody’s Ratings <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-16/us-credit-rating-cut-by-moody-s-on-government-debt-increase" target="_blank" rel="noopener">downgraded the US</a> to “Aa1” from “Aaa,” several years after S&P Global Ratings (2011) took that step -- and a couple after Fitch Ratings (2023) did the same. S&P 500 E-Mini, Long Bond, Dollar Index, Gold Futures (1-Day % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64025.png" alt="chart" width="707" height="323" /> Just like the other agencies, Moody’s cited the US’ growing debt load and ballooning budget deficits. It also highlighted the unwillingness of both Democratic and Republican administrations to take concrete steps to change the nation’s financial trajectory. In its words: “While we recognize the US’ significant economic and financial strengths, we believe these no longer fully counterbalance the decline in fiscal metrics.” The US has $29 trillion in federal debt, and interest costs alone now consume $1 of every $7 the country spends. The downgrade brought back the “<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63931/market-minute-4-16-25-gold-soars-dollar-dumps-amid-sell-us-trade/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Sell America</a>” trade, at least overnight on Sunday and this morning. But the question is whether the snap reaction will persist over time. The Great Financial Crisis sullied the reputation of the ratings agencies, in large part because they gave top-notch ratings to hundreds of billions of dollars of mortgage securities that subsequently collapsed in value. Many on Wall Street view them as consistently a day late and a dollar short. Speaking of the US’ balance sheet health, Republicans in the House of Representatives made progress on advancing President Trump’s tax-and-spending bill over the weekend. The only problem? Most outside analysts (including the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget) say it will <a href="https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/tax-plan-budget-national-debt-analysis-e9822072?mod=hp_lead_pos3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BOOST deficits by almost $3 trillion</a> over the next decade, rather than reduce them. Negotiations on the legislation will continue this week. On the deal front, Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amd" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMD</a>) said it would sell a data center infrastructure business to Sanmina Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=sanm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SANM</a>) for $3 billion. AMD picked up that division when it acquired ZT Systems for $4.9 billion earlier this year. The company previously said it would unload the infra unit at some point to focus on the rest of the former ZT’s purchased businesses. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64025/market-minute-5-19-25-sell-america-trade-resumes-as-last-us-aaa-taken-away/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-14-25- SPX Now Positive in '25. Dollar is...NOT. 5/14/2025 2:10:00 PM Stocks and Treasuries are trading around the flatline in the early going today. Gold and crude oil are modestly lower along with the dollar, while Bitcoin is holding recent gains around $104,000. Thanks to yesterday’s rally in the S&P 500, the benchmark index is now in POSITIVE territory year-to-date. That’s quite a change from where things stood in early April. Still, even after the S&P’s 18% surge from the low, it remains about 260 points below its February high. The Nasdaq Composite Index hasn’t yet reached the “flat YTD” milestone, either. SPX, DXY (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64021.png" alt="chart" width="1116" height="725" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, the dollar fell in Asian trading, leaving the broad US Dollar Index down about 7% in 2025. Weakness against the South Korean won was particularly noteworthy. The Trump Administration is reportedly discussing <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-14/won-rises-after-us-korea-said-to-have-discussed-fx-policy?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the greenback’s value vis-à-vis the won</a> as part of trade and tariff negotiations, saying the weakness of Asian currencies against the dollar gives them an economic advantage. Several days ago, the Taiwan dollar recorded its <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63997/market-minute-5-6-25-the-asian-currency-crisisonly-in-reverse/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">largest two-day surge</a> against the US dollar ever. Many analysts speculate moves like this are part of a "wink-nod" move by the administration to drive the dollar lower. That, in turn, has been a factor supporting the price of gold – a traditional, contra-dollar asset. Finally, Wegovy-maker Novo Nordisk (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nvo" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NVO</a>) is teaming up with the biotech firm Septerna Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=SEPN" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SEPN</a>) on anti-obesity treatments. Novo will pay Septerna $200 million up front – and <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/novo-nordisk-strikes-2-2-110348231.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">as much as $2.2 billion over time</a> – as the firms work toward developing and commercializing oral small molecule medicines. They could ultimately treat obesity, type 2 diabetes, and other health problems. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64021/market-minute-5-14-25-spx-now-positive-in-25-dollar-isnot/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-13-25- Stocks Digest "Buy America" Move as Trump Tours Mideast 5/13/2025 2:15:00 PM Tariff selloff, we hardly knew you! Stocks surged yesterday, pushing the S&P 500 Index (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPX</a>) back to where it traded at the beginning of March. So far today, equities are digesting that move – with a modest give-back of some gains underway. Gold and silver are bouncing along with crude oil, while the dollar is dipping. After weeks of “Sell America” trading, Wall Street flipped to “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-12/-buy-america-sweeps-across-global-markets-after-china-us-talks?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Buy America</a>” mode yesterday. US stocks and the US dollar surged after the US-China trade talks resulted in a major rollback of President Trump’s tariffs – and the countermeasures China implemented. The US is now charging 30% tariffs on Chinese goods, down from 145%, for the next 90 days. China’s tariff rate on US imports was cut to 10%. US and Chinese representatives will now need to hammer out a longer-lasting deal during the three-month tariff pause. Meanwhile, negotiations with other countries are ongoing. Trump is in the midst of a <a href="https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-saudi-arabia-middle-east-trip/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">four-day trip</a> through the Middle East. It will include stops in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar. SPX, UNH, COIN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64015.png" alt="chart" width="551" height="306" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/">YCharts</a> UnitedHealth Group Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=unh" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UNH</a>) has fallen from grace in spectacular fashion. Now, its former CEO and current Chairman Stephen Hemsley is stepping back in – and current CEO Andrew Witty is stepping down. The health insurance giant slashed its earnings guidance already, then just suspended its updated forecast, amid higher medical costs and rising care usage by covered individuals. The stock was already down more than 25% so far this year, and it lost even more ground in early trading. Finally, Coinbase Global Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=coin" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COIN</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coinbase-shares-jump-addition-p-110317157.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">shares are surging</a> because the cryptocurrency exchange earned a spot in the S&P 500 Index. Since so many funds track the S&P, getting added to its membership roster usually boosts a company’s shares. COIN is taking the spot formerly held by Discover Financial Services (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dfs" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DFS</a>), which Capital One Financial Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cof" target="_blank" rel="noopener">COF</a>) is acquiring. The addition also comes amid a crypto resurgence, with Bitcoin recently trading around $104,000 – close to an all-time high. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64015/market-minute-5-13-25-stocks-digest-buy-america-move-as-trump-tours-mideast/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-9-25- After 14% S&P Surge, Investors Nervously Eye Talks 5/9/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks rallied again yesterday, though they gave up some momentum into the close. The S&P 500 is now up 14% from its April 9 low – thought still down almost 4% on the year. Most markets are relatively calm today as investors nervously eye US-China trade talks this weekend. Gold and crude oil are up modestly, though, while Bitcoin is adding to yesterday’s solid rally. While sentiment has remained lousy, enough buyers have stepped up to the plate to fuel a solid, month-long rally. Even President Trump <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/stock-market-today-dow-s-p-live-updates?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">got into the act</a>, saying after yesterday’s US-UK trade deal ceremony that, “This country will hit a point that you better go out and buy stock.” SPX, GOOGL, AAPL (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64012.png" alt="chart" width="510" height="341" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> That said, reports on this weekend’s US-China trade talks in Switzerland are all over the map. Bloomberg reported that the Trump Administration <a href="https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-trump-team-said-to-eye-cutting-china-tariffs-amid-talks-191201231.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">might cut the 145% tariff rate</a> on Chinese goods to less than 60%. This morning, Trump himself just posted on Truth Social that he thinks an 80% rate “seems right.” Meanwhile, April trade data out of China showed exports to the US <a href="https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/chinas-export-growth-remained-resilient-in-april-00bf93a6?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">plunging 21% year-over-year</a>. That followed a 9.1% rise in March. Finally, analysts came to Alphabet Inc.’s (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=googl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) defense yesterday after the stock tanked on search news out of Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>). During court testimony on Wednesday, an Apple executive said his firm was likely going to revamp the Safari web browser, <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/apple-working-to-move-to-ai-search-in-browser-amid-google-fallout?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">making it more reliant</a> on Artificial Intelligence (AI) search engines. Google is currently the default search tool in Apple’s browser – paying $20 billion to AAPL per year for that privilege. Its shares dropped 7% on the news, before rising modestly yesterday as analysts called the selloff “overdone.” How the GOOGL-AAPL relationship sorts out is anyone’s guess. But analysts DO increasingly think AI-driven search tools will <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/alphabet-stock-rebounds-wall-street-analysts-defend-company-after-apples-ai-search-plan-triggers-7-sell-off-133601245.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">supplant traditional search engines</a> over time. Firms like Alphabet will need to adapt to keep gobs of advertising revenue coming in the door. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64012/market-minute-5-9-25-after-14-s-and-p-surge-investors-nervously-eye-talks/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-7-25- US-China Talks Planned; Fed on Tap 5/7/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are bouncing on news of trade talks, while gold and silver are easing back. The dollar is up modestly along with crude oil, while Treasuries are flattish. The US and China are officially TALKING! US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will join Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland this weekend for <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-07/xi-fortifies-china-s-economy-before-first-talks-on-trade-with-us?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">trade-focused negotiations</a>. While President Trump has previously indicated talks were going on behind the scenes, Chinese officials denied them – so official acknowledgment from BOTH sides equals progress. Ahead of the meeting, China’s central bank <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-lowers-rates-and-makes-bank-lending-easier-in-response-to-tariffs-7b98e5fe?mod=hp_lead_pos6" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cut interest rates</a> and reduced the amount of reserves banks have to keep on hand. The former move will make it cheaper to borrow, while the latter move will make more money available to lend. SPY, DIS, UBER (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute64003.png" alt="chart" width="534" height="297" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve will conclude its latest two-day policy meeting today. Virtually no one expects Chairman Jay Powell and company to cut rates from the current range of 4.25% to 4.5%. But markets are closely watching for signs of <a href="https://www.nbcnews.com/business/economy/federal-reserve-interest-rate-decision-may-2025-what-to-know-rcna204854" target="_blank" rel="noopener">when and how the Fed will react</a> to economic uncertainty and sliding business and consumer confidence. The “hard” data continues to show the economy doing okay, even as “soft” survey-based data has deteriorated notably. Earnings continue to roll in as well, with Walt Disney Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DIS</a>) <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/disney-lifts-profit-outlook-after-delivering-solid-parks-streaming-results-105454782.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">topping fiscal second-quarter sales and earnings</a> estimates. The theme park, movie, and streaming content provider also boosted its full-year earnings-per-share target to $5.75. That beat the average Wall Street estimate of $5.44, and would mark a 16% jump from 2024. Shares rallied on the news. Shares of Uber Technologies Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=uber" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UBER</a>) didn’t fare as well, though. The rideshare and food delivery company reported gross bookings of $42.8 billion in Q1, slightly below estimates. While the company forecast solid results for Q2, they weren’t as blow-the-doors-off as Wall Street hoped, sending UBER <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/uber-earnings-stock-drops-despite-upbeat-current-quarter-guidance-120305559.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">down in early trading</a>. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-64003/market-minute-5-7-25-us-china-talks-planned-fed-on-tap/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-6-25- The Asian Currency Crisis...Only in Reverse 5/6/2025 2:15:00 PM Foreign exchange is where the action is in this market, with the US dollar losing gobs of points against several foreign currencies so far this week. Gold is rallying along with silver in response. Crude oil is up, too, while equities are sliding. Remember the Asian currency crisis in 1997-1998? Well, this is like that...only IN REVERSE. Currencies across Asia have been <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/analysis-asian-crisis-reverse-currencies-081918735.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">surging against the US dollar</a> this week, rather than collapsing as they did in the 90s. The Taiwan Dollar, for one, soared 5% against the US dollar on Monday. That was its biggest rally since the 1980s. The Singapore dollar jumped to its highest level against the greenback in a decade-plus. Taiwan Dollar, Singapore Dollar, South Korean Won, Indian Rupee (3-Mo. % Change Vs. USD) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63997.png" alt="chart" width="699" height="294" /> The Trump Administration’s policies are a key driver. Higher proposed and enacted tariffs on Asian nations, plus expectations of weaker US growth, are discouraging global money flows into US assets and the US currency. Investors are also trading on the assumption any trade deals between the US and Asian nations would include “wink-nudge” (or even explicit) global <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-05/dollar-is-rocked-anew-by-taiwan-tumult-with-trade-deals-in-focus?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">approval of dollar weakening</a> to placate Trump. Meanwhile, Ford Motor Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=f" target="_blank" rel="noopener">F</a>) joined the list of companies warning about <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ford-beats-on-q1-earnings-but-pulls-guidance-as-tariffs-could-have-significant-impact-on-bottom-line-182620484.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">the impact of Trump’s tariffs</a> on profit. The auto giant said tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts would slice $1.5 BILLION off earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) this year. The warning follows one last week from General Motors Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GM</a>). GM projected a $4 billion to $5 billion EBIT hit. Finally, DoorDash Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dash" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DASH</a>) is ramping up its global food-delivery business, acquiring Deliveroo for around $3.85 billion. The <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/doordash-acquire-uks-deliveroo-3-060721463.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">purchase of a top British rival</a> will boost its European exposure. Deliveroo has approximately 7 million monthly active users, which will join the 42 million on DoorDash’s platform. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63997/market-minute-5-6-25-the-asian-currency-crisisonly-in-reverse/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-5-25- Markets Ease Back; Buffett Bows Out 5/5/2025 6:01:00 PM The S&P 500 just notched nine “up” days in a row, the longest string since 2004. Now, stocks are easing back in early trading. Crude oil and the dollar are cooling, while gold and silver are rallying nicely. Treasuries are a bit lower. It’s the end of an era at Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=brk.a" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BRK.A</a>). Longtime CEO and legendary investor Warren Buffett announced at his annual shareholder meeting this weekend that <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-is-stepping-aside-at-berkshire-hathaway-heres-what-he-thinks-happens-next-110038529.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he would step down</a> at the end of the year. Greg Abel, the firm’s vice chairman, will assume his role – as first revealed back in 2021. Succession planning was key at the firm given Buffett is 94 years old, and that Buffett's former right-hand-man Charlie Munger passed away in November 2023. Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63994.png" alt="chart" width="682" height="238" /> Yes, I’m going to use the term “Merger Monday.” Don’t judge! Dallas-based Sunoco LP (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=sun" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SUN</a>) said it would buy Parkland Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pki:ca" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PKI.CA</a>) for $9.1 billion. The C$44-per-share offer represents a 21% premium to where Parkland closed on Friday. SUN distributes gasoline to US service stations, while also operating a network of its own fuel-and-convenience stores under the APlus, Stripes, and Tigermarket brands. Calgary-based Parkland does the same throughout Canada, the US, and the Caribbean. In his latest tariff move, President Trump said <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-announces-100-tariff-movies-233452279.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">he would slap 100% levies</a> on foreign-produced movies. He said having movies produced in other countries relative to the US was a “national security threat,” while also noting that several foreign nations offer financial incentives to lure filmmakers overseas. An estimated $248 billion will be spent worldwide on content production in 2025, according to Ampere Analysis. Film studios and companies with streaming operations like Netflix Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nflx" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NFLX</a>), Walt Disney Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=dis" target="_blank" rel="noopener">DIS</a>), and Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>) could face margin pressure if they lose access to foreign production credits and have to re-shore some operations. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63994/market-minute-5-5-25-markets-ease-back-buffett-bows-out/?scode=046929 Market Minute 5-2-25- S&P on a Run, While Jobs A-OK 5/2/2025 2:10:00 PM The S&P 500 is on a run, and so far, it looks like it might keep going. Gold and silver are bouncing, while crude oil is not. Treasuries are under a bit of downside pressure, as is the US dollar. A big stock market WINNING streak? You wouldn’t have expected that a month ago. But here we are. The S&P 500 rose for the eighth day in a row on Thursday, its <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/video/p-500-logs-eight-consecutive-052946165.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">longest string of “up” days</a> since August 2024. It gained 8.7% during that stretch. If the S&P 500 closes higher today, that would mark the best streak since November 2004. That said, we remain about 10% off recent highs in the Nasdaq and 19% in the Russell 2000. While that’s an improvement from -23% and -28% during the depths of the decline, it shows we still have wood to chop. SPY, MSFT, AAPL, AMZN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63986.png" alt="chart" width="520" height="357" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Driving the gains yesterday were stocks like Microsoft Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=msft" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MSFT</a>), which delivered great earnings and revenue news. But more broadly, investors are getting increasingly optimistic about potential trade and tariff deals. Even China signaled it <a href="https://www.wsj.com/world/china/china-signals-readiness-to-respond-to-u-s-trade-overtures-583f2f0d?mod=hp_lead_pos3" target="_blank" rel="noopener">might be ready to talk</a>, with a Chinese Commerce Ministry spokesperson saying, “If you want to fight, we will fight to the end; if you want to talk, our door is wide open.” As solid as MSFT’s numbers were, results from two other “Mag 7” names left something to be desired. Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) missed services revenue estimates during the fiscal second quarter, and warned that <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-stock-slips-after-company-warns-of-900-million-tariff-headwind-174033799.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">tariffs could boost costs</a> by $900 million in Q3. For its part, Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>) offered up a <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/amazon-beats-on-q1-earnings-but-light-q2-guidance-weighs-on-stock-200554189.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">lighter-than-expected</a> operating income forecast of $13 billion to $17.5 billion in Q2.. On the economic front, nonfarm payrolls rose by 177,000 in April. Those job gains <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-05-02/us-payroll-growth-top-forecasts-with-robust-177-000-addition?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">beat the average estimate</a> of 130,000, but were a step down from 185,000 in March. Unemployment held steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings growth dipped to 0.2%. Net-net, the data wasn’t great...but neither was it terrible. Let’s call it “A-OK.” Arguably, that could be what the market needs to hold recent gains – because numbers like these open the door to a couple of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63986/market-minute-5-2-25-s-and-p-on-a-run-while-jobs-a-ok/?scode=046929 MoneyMasters Podcast 5-1-25- Is Your Strategy Too Narrow for This Market 5/1/2025 4:00:00 PM Is your investing strategy too narrow for today’s volatile markets? In this episode of the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4okFsJcJwu4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">MoneyShow MoneyMasters Podcast</a>, I’m joined by Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group and one of the most respected market analysts on Wall Street. Known for his “fusion” approach to investing, Paul combines technicals, fundamentals, macro trends, and historical data to give a 360-degree view of what’s really moving the market — and what most people miss. <iframe title="YouTube video player" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/4okFsJcJwu4?si=VIIznDcJu9Dz-8B5" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen=""></iframe> From volatility spikes to surprising earnings strength, Paul breaks down the disconnect between soft survey data and hard economic outcomes, why Mag Seven stocks may not be the future’s big winners, and how a single tweet can derail global markets. He also explains how smart investors should approach the second half of 2025 — what to watch, what to tune out, and why discipline always beats prediction. Whether you're deep into trading or just managing your long-term portfolio, Paul’s insights will help you cut through the noise and stay one step ahead. Finally, Paul will be joining us at the 2025 MoneyShow Masters Symposium Las Vegas, happening July 15-17 at Caesars Palace. Click here to register: <a href="https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=059253">https://lasvegasmms.moneyshow.com/?scode=059253</a> https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63985/moneymasters-podcast-5-1-25-is-your-strategy-too-narrow-for-this-market/?scode=046929 Market Minute 4-30-25- China Sinks, India Shines Amid Tariff Shifts 4/30/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are sliding along with oil in the early going. Gold and silver are down as well, while the dollar and Treasuries are flat. Hardly a day goes by without more tariff-related headlines – and today is no exception. Overnight, an index that tracks Chinese manufacturing activity sank to 49 in April from 50.5 in March. That was the <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chinas-manufacturing-activity-falls-april-014538796.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">weakest since December 2023</a>. A sub-index that tracks exports sank to the lowest since December 2022, a sign US tariffs are starting to bite. Meanwhile, India <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-30/rupee-gains-to-highest-this-year-on-trade-deal-hopes-inflows?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">has been benefiting</a> from China’s woes. The country’s rupee currency just surged to its highest level in 2025 against the US dollar. Plus, foreign inflows into Indian stocks jumped to $975 million in April – a huge swing from prior outflows of more than $3 billion. SPY, INDA (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63984.png" alt="chart" width="539" height="350" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Many observers think India could strike a deal with the US ahead of other countries, not to mention see more demand for its exports as companies shift foreign production to the country. The iShares MSCI India ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=inda" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INDA</a>) was recently up 1.7% year-to-date, compared with a loss of 5.4% for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=spy" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>). In the US, more companies are suspending previous earnings guidance and more CEOs are warning about economic uncertainty caused by shifting trade policy. A business group polled more than 300 senior business executives, and 84% said they were <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/earnings-trade-war-uncertainty-88edd369?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">somewhat or very concerned</a> about the political and legal backdrop, according to the Wall Street Journal. That said, both US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent have suggested progress is being made on the deal front with some foreign countries. Plus, markets have had a better tone to them recently – with buyers stepping in on pullbacks and the S&P 500 up more than 575 points from its early-April panic lows. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63984/market-minute-4-30-25-china-sinks-india-shines-amid-tariff-shifts/?scode=046929 Market Minute 4-29-25- Stocks Spin Wheels Amid Auto Deals 4/29/2025 2:15:00 PM Stocks are spinning their wheels in the early going after a mixed trading session on Monday. Crude oil is lower along with gold and long-term Treasuries, while the dollar is modestly higher. The auto industry is in flux, threatened at first by massive Trump Administration tariffs...and now potentially getting breaks from many of them. The Wall Street Journal reported that a 25% levy on completed, foreign-made cars <a href="https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/trump-tariffs-autos-exceptions-fc634efd?mod=hp_lead_pos1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">won’t be added on top</a> of levies on steel and aluminum. Auto manufacturers will also get a break on foreign auto part tariffs in the form of partial rebates of the amounts paid in 2025 and 2026. GM, UPS, AMZN (YTD % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63974.png" alt="chart" width="527" height="352" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> Still, the potential relief is coming a little late for companies like General Motors Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=gm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GM</a>). The auto giant just <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-29/gm-suspends-guidance-freezes-share-buyback-on-trump-tariffs?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">yanked its earnings guidance</a> and postponed $4 billion in planned share buybacks. The company originally forecast $11 to $12 in earnings per share this year, but said it needed to determine the exact impact of tariff and trade policy shifts on profit. As for the shipping behemoth United Parcel Service Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ups" target="_blank" rel="noopener">UPS</a>), it managed to beat first-quarter estimates, with revenue of $21.5 billion (versus a $21.05 billion estimate) and EPS of $1.49 ($1.38). But that was about it for the good news. Higher tariffs are <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-reports-fall-first-quarter-101325659.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">cutting off the flow of cheap goods</a> from China-based sellers like Temu and Shein. Plus, volume from Amazon.com Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amzn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMZN</a>) is expected to decline – a big deal given that AMZN accounts for about 12% of the firm’s revenue. UPS said it was slashing 20,000 jobs to cut costs and cope with weaker shipping demand. It also plans to close down more than 70 owned or leased facilities. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63974/market-minute-4-29-25-stocks-spin-wheels-amid-auto-deals/?scode=046929 Market Minute 4-28-25- For Markets, Trade Still Taking Center Stage 4/28/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets are relatively quiet for a change, with stocks, crude oil, gold and silver all flattish. The dollar is stable, but Treasury prices are lower. Traders are still focused on...trade. The new concern: That store shelves <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-28/trump-s-china-tariffs-set-to-unleash-supply-shock-on-us-economy?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">could start looking a little empty</a> soon. US retailers and wholesalers stocked up on imported goods ahead of President Trump’s tariff announcements, but those inventories are getting wound down. At the same time, inbound shipments and cargo sailings from China have plunged up to 60%. Some orders will be re-routed to other suppliers in countries with lower tariff rates. But the “gumming up” of global supply chains could impact pricing and availability of goods on US store shelves for some time. Low-priced e-commerce company Shein Group Ltd. is already <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-27/shein-hikes-us-prices-as-much-as-377-ahead-of-tariff-increases?fromMostRead=true" target="_blank" rel="noopener">boosting US prices</a> by anywhere from 30% to 377%, per Bloomberg. SPY, AAPL, META, CAT (YTD % Return) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63969.png" alt="chart" width="556" height="309" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> From an investor standpoint, what matters most is the pace and details of the trade dealmaking process. Trump Administration policymakers have <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/trump-tariffs-live-updates-walmart-and-target-warn-of-empty-shelves-and-higher-prices-amid-tariff-impact-191201077.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">hinted at deals</a> with countries like Japan and India. But markets will likely need to see concrete progress in the next few weeks if they’re going to resume marching higher. Meanwhile, we’re getting into the heart of Q1 earnings season this week. Magnificent Seven names like Apple Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=aapl" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AAPL</a>) and Meta Platforms Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=meta" target="_blank" rel="noopener">META</a>) are set to report results, along with financials like Visa Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=v" target="_blank" rel="noopener">V</a>), industrials such as Caterpillar Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=cat" target="_blank" rel="noopener">CAT</a>), and drug giants Eli Lilly & Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=lly" target="_blank" rel="noopener">LLY</a>) and Amgen Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=amgn" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AMGN</a>). On the economic front, we’ll get consumer confidence figures on Tuesday...income, spending, and PCE inflation data Wednesday...and the April monthly jobs report on Friday. Those figures come as the 10-year Treasury Note yield is hovering right in the middle of its recent 4%-4.5% trading range. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63969/market-minute-4-28-25-for-markets-trade-still-taking-center-stage/?scode=046929 Market Minute 4-25-25- US-China Stepping Back from the Brink 4/25/2025 2:15:00 PM It’s been a solid week for the stock market, even if it might not seem so. Equities are easing back this morning, though, as are crude oil, gold, and silver. Long-term Treasuries and the dollar are modestly higher in the early going. Are the US and China stepping back from the brink of the abyss? That’s what Wall Street is STARTING to price in this week. The latest news overnight: <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-25/china-weighs-exempting-some-us-goods-from-tariffs-as-costs-rise?srnd=homepage-americas" target="_blank" rel="noopener">China could waive its 125% tariff</a> on various categories of goods and services, including medical equipment and airplane lease payments. The move comes after President Trump insisted US-China talks are going on behind the scenes (even though Chinese officials called that “<a href="https://nypost.com/2025/04/24/us-news/trump-insists-china-wrong-about-fake-news-tariff-talks-claims-they-talked-today/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">fake news</a>.”) SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63963.png" alt="chart" width="545" height="347" /> Data by <a href="https://ycharts.com/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">YCharts</a> From a technical perspective, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=SPY" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SPY</a>) carved out a higher low on Monday’s pullback. It’s now challenging overhead resistance just under $550. That’s the first step toward building a base that lasts more than a day or two. I wrote recently about <a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-63820/chart-of-the-day-3-17-25-looking-for-an-spy-low-then-look-for-this/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">what else I’d like to see</a> before getting more aggressive to the long side. We’re also seeing a modest easing of the “Sell the US” trade in bonds and currencies. In earnings news, Google parent Alphabet Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=GOOGL" target="_blank" rel="noopener">GOOGL</a>) delivered <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/google-beats-q1-estimates-raises-dividend-5-and-authorizes-70-billion-in-buybacks-192027280.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">a trifecta of good news</a>. The company reported $2.81 in Q1 earnings per share, well above the $2.01 analysts expected. It announced a $70 billion stock buyback. And it boosted its dividend payout by 5%. Shares rose on the news, though Alphabet is still facing a federal antitrust lawsuit that could force it to divest some business lines. On the flip side, struggling semiconductor giant Intel Corp. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=INTC" target="_blank" rel="noopener">INTC</a>) handed investors more disappointing news. It forecast sales of $11.2 billion to $12.4 billion in the second quarter, missing estimates of $12.8 billion. The company could face higher costs as a result of Trump’s tariffs, and <a href="https://www.barrons.com/articles/intel-stock-price-job-cuts-a76f0369?mod=article_inline" target="_blank" rel="noopener">it’s reportedly considering cutting 20%</a> of its workforce – or around 22,000 employees. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63963/market-minute-4-25-25-us-china-stepping-back-from-the-brink/?scode=046929 Market Minute 4-23-25- Trump Backs Down, Buyers Step Up 4/23/2025 2:15:00 PM Markets launched a “<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/tradingidea-63953/chart-of-the-day-4-23-25-face-ripping-rallies-feel-great-but-keep-this-in-mind-/?scode=059253" target="_blank" rel="noopener">face-ripping</a>” rally yesterday, and they’re at it again this morning. Equities are up sharply, and they’re being joined by Treasuries. Gold is extending its losses from yesterday, while the dollar is up modestly. No trouble finding the catalyst here: President Trump backed down on his Federal Reserve and China tariff threats. Specifically, he said he had “<a href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/22/trump-says-he-has-no-intention-of-firing-fed-chair-powell.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">no intention</a>” of firing Fed Chairman Jay Powell before his term expires in May 2026. Trump also said he’d be “<a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-23/trump-says-he-ll-be-very-nice-to-china-in-trade-talks?srnd=homepage-americas">very nice</a>” to China and suggested tariff rates could “come down substantially” if US-China negotiators can reach a deal. SPY, TLT, TSLA (2-Day % Change) <img src="https://msgraphics.blob.core.windows.net/content/article-img/marketminute63954.png" alt="chart" width="545" height="203" /> Throw in deeply oversold market conditions and extremely negative investor sentiment – and you get the S&P 500 rallying almost 5% in 24 hours. Not to mention gold dropping almost $200 an ounce from its overnight-session high to this morning. Long bond futures were also recently up two-and-a-half points in price, while 10-year Treasury yields were down more than 10 basis points. Widely followed and widely held, Tesla Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=tsla" target="_blank" rel="noopener">TSLA</a>) is jumping this morning. Its Q1 results were abysmal, with revenue of $19.3 billion <a href="https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tesla-misses-on-q1-results-but-stock-jumps-after-musk-says-time-at-doge-will-drop-significantly-214802096.html" target="_blank" rel="noopener">missing the average estimate</a> of $21.4 billion and earnings per share coming in at 27 cents versus an estimate of 44 cents. But CEO Elon Musk said the right things in the post-earnings conference call, pledging to focus more on Tesla than his role at DOGE and promising that a planned lower-priced vehicle would go into production in this year’s first half. In other high-profile earnings reports, Boeing Co. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=ba" target="_blank" rel="noopener">BA</a>) reported a smaller-than-forecast loss…electric utility giant NextEra Energy Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=nee" target="_blank" rel="noopener">NEE</a>) beat estimates on strong power demand…and Philip Morris International Inc. (<a href="https://www.moneyshow.com/quotes/?symbol=pm" target="_blank" rel="noopener">PM</a>) topped estimates thanks to strength in its nicotine pouch business. Shares of all three companies rose in early trading. https://www.moneyshow.com/articles/marketminute-63954/market-minute-4-23-25-trump-backs-down-buyers-step-up/?scode=046929